BTCUSD: False Breakout And Pin Bar Point To Low 6Ks.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: Price has established a bearish pin bar after fluctuating around the 6431 to 6614 resistance zone . Like I wrote previously, this is a tricky area to enter new longs, especially with the 7120 reversal zone boundary coupled with a holiday trading environment.

6431 to 6614 is the .618 minor resistance relative to the recent bearish structure measured from the 6850 peak. Generally it is not the most attractive location to initiate new swing trade longs, but an exception is possible depending on the candle formations.

At the moment, there is nothing that offers a long trigger that would be worth making an exception for. With a bearish pin bar present, a break below 6414 would be a sell trigger according to the swing trade criteria that we follow.

At S.C., we always make it a point to follow best practices. That means aiming to buy near supports and selling near resistances. Since we do not short these markets, buying near a support would be the basis of our next swing trade idea. And the anticipated support is between 6126 and 5977 (minor .618 support relative to the current bullish swing).

There is nothing for us to do but wait, especially if price drifts into the 7120 bearish reversal zone boundary. With the U.S. holiday affecting the entire week, false breakouts are very likely which can lead to a sharper correction.

In summary, at S.C., we are anticipating a higher low formation following the next retrace in this market. This scenario would signal a broader bullish move is in progress. That is where we plan to initiate a new swing trade long. Until then, we wait and monitor inventory that we accumulated across the board while these markets were looking their worst (we published a number of articles on S.C. about our purchases).

There is no hurry to buy, especially in a holiday market where noise and lower volume is typical. Either this market will retrace and offer a higher low possibility, or consolidate and squeeze into the reversal zone. S.C. is where we will share a new trade idea if this market offers one. Otherwise we continue to wait.
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Starting to see a bit of Blue Sky yet Marc? Thanks
We have a very similar viewpoint Marc. This was technically a strong Lower High Rejection on the 1D Channel Down hard Resistance. Most likely a short:


Please allow me to share.

Seems like the buying pressure has cool off for now, and it may be in time for a minor retracement.

Nonetheless, I am seeing levels such as $6359 & $6167 as typically strong supports. (See Charts)

So, if you looking for long, wait and prime your long positions in these areas. If you want to long, wait first.

Press "Like" and "Follow".

Plenty of fakeouts and false breakouts aimed to trigger stops. This may lead to one more attempt to sucker in FOMO above 6.7, however, there is plenty of resistance above 6.7 to inevitably send the price back down.

That said, this feels more like a bot war than actual people trading this level. So, I am leaning bearish. With a short entry at 6750, I feel quite confident with my position.

Worse case scenario, I stop out with a profit and will likely reposition again.

Again, nothing about this level feels organic. That is usually strong indicator for things to turn bearish.
Interesting, didn't know about the the holiday in the US.
@MarcPMarkets , this time you ar enot antecipating a posible yearly lower low.. The fact is, price can, indeed, close the week or month in the lower 5k. Any opinion about this? Did you plan to place a buy in the case of extreme low formations?

SonicDeejay YousefNasser
@YousefNasser, Indeed..

A Candle shows the momentum of that moment only.
goldbug1 SonicDeejay
@SonicDeejay, @YousefNasser Indicators are based on past trends, candles are based on what is happening now. Which is more important? Indicators react AFTER it happens, where candles are showing you what is happening. "momentum of that moment" or the current momentum as you implied is much more important than the momentum that happened last week.
GoteGuru goldbug1
@goldbug1, Actually, candles are also showing past trends. Candles may use shorter time frame, but they "show the past" just like almost anything. The present can be expressed via the current price or - more specifically - the current bids, nothing else. Everything else is "indicator based on past trends".
simplicity in its finest form. just after your NANO article it popped , didn't get in but giving credit where its due!
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