Based on the length of the triangle, it could take until about the end of the month for price to exit the upper or lower boundary. Price should continue in the same direction it exits from the triangle (if it exits out the top, price will move up and if it exits out the bottom price will move down).
Currently watching 4 indicators which are all positive right now:
1) Premier Oscillator
2) Elder Impulse System
3) BBImplulse Indicator
I have set most of these indicators for a shorter time window in order to pick up a change of price direction more quickly. You could make this your own and tweak the time windows to see how they affect each indicator.
(not shown here) is still relatively light. If it continues to be light, my expectation would be for price to resolve to the downside. There appears to be quite a bit of price support in the $550-$560 range so I wouldn't necessarily expect the price to drop below that range right away.
Current strategy: If there is another green candle tomorrow with the price above today's high price, and the indicators remain positive, I will likely buy. Would likely set stop at or below low of previous green candle.
Price has had quite a bit of difficulty breaking above the $660-$680 range, so a break through the upside of the triangle won't be too significant until $680 is broken. At that point I believe price could accelerate higher.
I also would not plan on going long if the price doesn't exit out the top of the descending triangle. I suspect that the price could take until the end of this month to resolve. It seems to be trading in a range right now and I expect we'll get a little more clarity on which direction price will go once it exits the triangle.
This chart is really intended more to be used like a swing trade where a purchase would be made and held for a few days out to 10-14 days - most likely 7-10 days. I haven't tried to trade Bitcoin this way. As I said, I have been using Point and Figure charts and waiting for the price to hit a trigger. Right now on my P&F chart $680 is the entry price.
If I had to guess, I suspect price won't exit the descending triangle tomorrow, so in that case I wouldn't buy.
I think it is a very good point about the weekly divergence on the indicators. I still think a shorter time frame trading strategy could work for Bitcoin, but it is always a good idea to look at that strategy within other time frames and any vaid chart patterns as well.
I fully agree to that. There is a range between somewhere around $605 to $635 that we have to break out of to establish a new trend direction. Since we failed to go above 635 US Dollar again today despite the good news that Dell accepts Bitcoin it's now even more clear to me, that we will first visit something below $605, before the price will start a new trend cycle in a few weeks to finally break 700 US Dollar. As you said $680 might be the entry price. I would say $660-$670 is the entry price - above the last peak.
I will try the Point and Figure charts, I haven't used them so far. So many options :)
1) Find valid price targets. It is possible to have valid price target, both higher and lower than current price. For example, on my current chart the next valid higher price target is $900 and the valid lower targets are $360, $260, and $140.
2) You can calculate risk/reward ratios for trades. I won't go into all the details, but based on the $900 price target I am willing to buy when price hits $680 and could set my stop loss at $610, $600, $590, or $580. A stop loss of $560 risks too much for too little reward.
The ratios work out as follows:
$610 - risk/reward ratio is 3.14 - for every dollar risked potential reward it $3.14
$600 - 2.75
$590 - 2.44
$580 - 2.2
$560 is not acceptable because the risk/reward ratio is 1.83. The ideal risk/reward ratio is 3, but you can't always find the ideal trade. 2 or above is acceptable. A lot of it depends on risk tolerance.
Okay, I think I may have it. StochRSI has a certain direction it goes depending on how much time it stays OVERSOLD or OVERBOUGHT. On the 4 H for Stamp you can see it OB. Move to the 1 D and you see it spike only slightly on that day. I may PS CC an image, but got to do other stuff.
For me this means, if we now don't go up the very slow downtrend increases until we roll over into the correction I see in so many indicators approaching.
I'm going to be cautious for now. Still in and have some on Finex for swaps.
There are just so few traders with lots of BTC that they can easily move the market. It's not as worse as altcoins, but similar in a smaller scale.
On that chart I drew several resistance lines from the high. You could make a good case for the resistance being broken or for continued resistance.
To me, we're on the bubble price-wise - it could go either way. I'll feel more sure the price direction is reversing when price breaks through $680.
And it was a well known VC who is not a trader who bought the 30k BTC from SR. He isn't going to sell them:
“He’s keeping all of the coins—he won the auction independently,” Avish Bhama, Vaurum’s CEO, tells WIRED. “He’s a client of ours so we’re storing and securing them for him. The partnership enables us to offer liquidity to emerging markets by leveraging unique market making strategies across our exchanges.”
“Collectively, we’ve been brainstorming to come up with new ways to help grow global bitcoin adoption,” Vaurum Chief Executive Officer Avish Bhama said in the statement. “What we came up with is a way to leverage our exchanges and utilize the auctioned pool of bitcoins, as well as market making strategies, to help provide liquidity in these underserved markets.”
"While one company, Palo Alto, Calif.-based Vaurum, a bitcoin exchange for high value traders, backed by Boost VC, the company founded by Tim’s son, Adam Draper, yesterday announced it had partnered with Tim to provide bitcoin liquidity to emerging markets, we learned in the press conference that was just the beginning of his plans. Already, Boost VC has invested in bitcoin payment gateway, Bitpagos, with roots in Argentina, a nation with an average inflation rate of 205 percent between 1944 and 2013, making it a perfect place for bitcoin users, which are forecast to experience 11.1 percent inflation this year. Boost VC is also already positioned in Mexico, a country with an average inflation rate of 27 percent between 1974 and 2014, through its investment in Coincove, a bitcoin financial services company with plans to expand throughout the rest of Latin America. Tim is also an investor in bitcoin company Korbit, based in Seoul, South Korea, though that nation has a traditionally stable currency. The Drapers, along with Vaurum CEO, Avish Bhama, said they would focus their global efforts on four countries: India, Brazil, Argentina, and Turkey, which have all historically suffered from hyper inflated economies."
I now had to panic buy in at $632, because the uptrend is getting stronger and stronger. I will sell as early as possible once I see a reason, but for now the uptrend is very healthy underneath in the very short-term charts.
But if too many Bitcoin daytraders don't hold and cash out of the small uptrend over the weekend (if price doesn't stay above $625) then we are back in a accelerated downtrend risk at least down to $610 for the third time.
I'd ask you to make a better chart, but I don't know if you have the skills. Don't judge if you don't understand how TA works. It is a complex inter working that requires time. None of us get any compensation for posting on here and could choose not do. We do so to benefit the community and bounce ideas off each other.
A bad chart doesn't mean we should disregard it. We learn from it and see what exactly happened. Markets are dynamic beasts that many will find that they cannot tame from time to time.
Someone else was also bitching on DanV charts. Just because they are wrong doesn't mean you need to follow them. We are not here to give you financial advice. Read the disclaimers. Seek out a financial adviser or similar if you want real investment advice.