TerryKinder

Bitcoin Price Descending Triangle. Will Price Move Up or Down?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Bitcoin price has formed a descending triangle pattern. As of today price has touched the descending portion of the triangle 3 times and the horizontal portion twice.

Based on the length of the triangle, it could take until about the end of the month for price to exit the upper or lower boundary. Price should continue in the same direction it exits from the triangle (if it exits out the top, price will move up and if it exits out the bottom price will move down).

Currently watching 4 indicators which are all positive right now:

1) Premier Stochastic Oscillator
2) Elder Impulse System
3) BBImplulse Indicator
4) MACD

I have set most of these indicators for a shorter time window in order to pick up a change of price direction more quickly. You could make this your own and tweak the time windows to see how they affect each indicator.

Volume (not shown here) is still relatively light. If it continues to be light, my expectation would be for price to resolve to the downside. There appears to be quite a bit of price support in the $550-$560 range so I wouldn't necessarily expect the price to drop below that range right away.

Current strategy: If there is another green candle tomorrow with the price above today's high price, and the indicators remain positive, I will likely buy. Would likely set stop at or below low of previous green candle.

Price has had quite a bit of difficulty breaking above the $660-$680 range, so a break through the upside of the triangle won't be too significant until $680 is broken. At that point I believe price could accelerate higher.
l ve been foolwing most traders here however seem s you fuckers been wrong all the time,don even publish here
-3 Reply
TerryKinder N.Bayrak
If you're going to curse at me, at least take the time to run your post through spell check. Once you have spell check down, you could create some charts yourself and see how accurate they are. Good luck.
+1 Reply
MoonTrader N.Bayrak
No need to be hostile. I'm open to a lot of interpretation, but I do tend to think the price will maintain the upward channel for now. If not, I have my stops ready. Just find a good risk/reward ratio that works for you and you should be able to make your own decisions.
+1 Reply
TerryKinder MoonTrader
I agree. The only point I might differ a little on is whether we consider if the price is in an upward channel. It can be drawn a lot of ways. A chart I modified from another user (https://www.tradingview.com/v/4pBWY6TB/) the other day showed an upward channel beginning the end of June or beginning of July.

On that chart I drew several resistance lines from the high. You could make a good case for the resistance being broken or for continued resistance.

To me, we're on the bubble price-wise - it could go either way. I'll feel more sure the price direction is reversing when price breaks through $680.
Reply
MoonTrader TerryKinder
The one thing that makes me think we are destined for the upside is the similarity in price action to the pre-Gox bubble plateau in Feb-March 2013. Furthermore, there are a lot more big players now than there were before, and that makes me think the heavily interested parties (whales) will do whatever they can to maintain an uptrend. Whoever bought those 30k BTC from the SR auction must have been pretty damn sure he would make a return on his investment because he bought them for over $1k each.
+1 Reply
ChartArt MoonTrader
It currently looks similar to May 27 - May 28, 2013.

And it was a well known VC who is not a trader who bought the 30k BTC from SR. He isn't going to sell them:

“He’s keeping all of the coins—he won the auction independently,” Avish Bhama, Vaurum’s CEO, tells WIRED. “He’s a client of ours so we’re storing and securing them for him. The partnership enables us to offer liquidity to emerging markets by leveraging unique market making strategies across our exchanges.”

“Collectively, we’ve been brainstorming to come up with new ways to help grow global bitcoin adoption,” Vaurum Chief Executive Officer Avish Bhama said in the statement. “What we came up with is a way to leverage our exchanges and utilize the auctioned pool of bitcoins, as well as market making strategies, to help provide liquidity in these underserved markets.”

"While one company, Palo Alto, Calif.-based Vaurum, a bitcoin exchange for high value traders, backed by Boost VC, the company founded by Tim’s son, Adam Draper, yesterday announced it had partnered with Tim to provide bitcoin liquidity to emerging markets, we learned in the press conference that was just the beginning of his plans. Already, Boost VC has invested in bitcoin payment gateway, Bitpagos, with roots in Argentina, a nation with an average inflation rate of 205 percent between 1944 and 2013, making it a perfect place for bitcoin users, which are forecast to experience 11.1 percent inflation this year. Boost VC is also already positioned in Mexico, a country with an average inflation rate of 27 percent between 1974 and 2014, through its investment in Coincove, a bitcoin financial services company with plans to expand throughout the rest of Latin America. Tim is also an investor in bitcoin company Korbit, based in Seoul, South Korea, though that nation has a traditionally stable currency. The Drapers, along with Vaurum CEO, Avish Bhama, said they would focus their global efforts on four countries: India, Brazil, Argentina, and Turkey, which have all historically suffered from hyper inflated economies."

WIRED http://www.wired.com/2014/07/vaurum/
BLOOMBERG http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-02/vc-tim-draper-wins-entire-cache-in-bitcoin-auction.html
BIZJOURNAL http://upstart.bizjournals.com/entrepreneurs/hot-shots/2014/07/03/the-first-hint-of-tim-draper-s-plan-for-global.html?page=all

+1 Reply
ChartArt TerryKinder
After it looked only like a short peak it now looks like the masses don't care about chart analysis and simply buy.

I now had to panic buy in at $632, because the uptrend is getting stronger and stronger. I will sell as early as possible once I see a reason, but for now the uptrend is very healthy underneath in the very short-term charts.
+1 Reply
TerryKinder ChartArt
I am still holding off buying for the moment. Would really like to see a full candle above the descending triangle, or maybe the price move and stay above $635-640.
Reply
ChartArt TerryKinder
It's really a very tough situation to understand right now. I analyzed the charts the entire last hours with different methods and all I can say is that if the current uptrend lasts for 48-72 hours without too many greedy people cashing out over the weekend, we really have a new long uptrend established, like you marked with the green flags. All due to the positive DELL news today that they now accept Bitcoin via Coinbase.

But if too many Bitcoin daytraders don't hold and cash out of the small uptrend over the weekend (if price doesn't stay above $625) then we are back in a accelerated downtrend risk at least down to $610 for the third time.
+1 Reply
ChartArt TerryKinder
Today I just sold at a small loss, after the price started to go below 625 on Bitfinex and Bitstamp.

(First briefly 623 at both, then a bounce back to 629 -- I sold when it went back to 625).
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