in 2018 you can draw all these beautiful trend lines that the price is following. It's got a long term bottom trend line, and 2 prominent upper trend lines (1 from 19k and the current one). The price bounces off these trend lines like clockwork.
Look at 2014. The price isn't nearly bouncing off trend lines. There is some visual similarities in the MACD - sort of. But people are grasping at straws. The price behaved in 2014 because Mt Gox got hacked which controlled 70% of the market and some 650,000 btc got dumped on the market. Does that sound like right now?
It's like saying two people, one driving a truck and one driving a motorbike, and because they're people and they're both driving vehicles at the same time of the year on the same road, they're going to have the same gas mileage and driving behavior. They will have some correlation but that's it!
@alexyeoh, And here are the two current long-term trend lines from this year:
supestv
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To clarify what I mean, there are 3 main trend lines right now - the upper trend line coming down from 19k got broken. The bottom trend line since 2017 is still unbroken, and there is a new current upper trend line that merges with previous price peaks.
As you can see above - there is no clear long term trend. All trend lines are short except the upper one coming down from $673; I redrew that one and it ends around $234 in June 2015 - so this is obviously the longest and most nasty trend line that we want to avoid.
But when we talk about "fractals" the most important ones to pay attention to because of high probabilities are trend lines: flags, heads and shoulders, double bottoms etc - these are all drawn with lines. Do any of the lines above look like the 3 main lines we have in 2018? No! No relation!
Here are the trend lines redrawn in a neater way.