MarcPMarkets

BTCUSD: Continuation Pattern And Next Support Around High 6Ks?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: Price is consolidating across the board and is poised to break lower in my opinion. While bearish momentum dominates in the short term, triangle formations such as the one developing in this market serve as continuation patterns.

If I shorted these markets (which I do not), I would be looking for a day trade at the break of 7312. This is just below the low of the previous candle which is an inside bar .

What makes situations like this difficult is when you are bullish on the long term. This is why it is so important to separate trade ideas by time frame. This means it is possible to be bearish on a day trade time frame, while simultaneously bullish on a swing or position trade time frame.

At S.C., we are long term bullish and are accumulating inventory across a variety of coins during this period of crowd pessimism. There are a number of articles there that explain which coins and our reasoning. Since I am able to separate and categorize my thinking in terms of time frame and strategy, I am able to recognize the short term intent which is not in line with the bigger picture.

On the short term, this market is dominated by bears. If price breaks below 7312, I am anticipating the mid 7100's to high 6900's before the next support asserts itself. Keep in mind, price is within a broad support zone that ranges from 8171 to 4983 (.618 support of entire bullish structure relative to the 150 lows). This means it has a lot of room to fluctuate before another low is established.

In summary, long term not much has changed. When the crowd hates a market, that is a great time to accumulate at wholesale prices. This does not come without risk though. Someone recently asked me, when you accumulate, where do you place the stop. These are risky instruments that are in a space that is not regulated that same way as traditional markets. If you are in it for the long term, then it is all about risk control though appropriate sizing and the willingness to lose. If you can't lose, you can't win in these markets.

As far as the next swing trade long goes, there is no reason to be long at the moment. We will issue a signal for a swing trade long, with specific stop and target on S.C. once the market provides us with a good reason.

Questions and comments welcome.
Comment: BTCUSD update: I am still short term bearish, long term bullish until this momentum shows clear evidence of shifting. I am long term bullish because this market is not making significant new lows. As far as long term Elliott Wave counts, this price action is equivalent to a broad Wave 2. If this market breaks below 6K, that would be more of a reason for concern and caution rather than outright bullish.

The current price action is within the vicinity of a support zone and is hesitating. This shows some susceptibility to a short term squeeze, but until I see further evidence, I am steering clear of any new swing trade longs.
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Comments

Speaking of long term, Marc what do you think of this consolidation range? Looks fairly clear to me for current ranging.
+3 Reply
lisek15lisek FenixCapital
@FenixCapital, I damn hope so but on the other hand too many people are expecting this chart.
Reply
FenixCapital lisek15lisek
@lisek15lisek, To be completely honest - compared to other ideas I've had where everybody was voicing the same opinion in the community - a lot of people have many different ideas, its kind of a smorgasbord of confused projections rn Imo (based off CT and crypto media articles/analysis) so that gives me more conviction of this playing out
+1 Reply
Zilch274 FenixCapital
@FenixCapital, highly agree with these trendlines and projection, the monthly cycle of monthly trends will break at the end of this wedge aswell IMO
Reply
i find it stupid that your support zone is between 8k and 5k. thats a 40% difference.You might as well make the support zone all the way to a dollar.
+2 Reply
The law of diminishing returns.
+2 Reply
Thanks for this, those are my targets aswell. I sold way before the dump happened and i'm so happy that I did. cheaper BTC/Alts coming our way peeps, get excited :D
+2 Reply
i think, won't down below 6900 level. because, no free ticket for bitcoin in out of market crowds.
+1 Reply
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