If I shorted these markets (which I do not), I would be looking for a day trade at the break of 7312. This is just below the low of the previous candle which is an .
What makes situations like this difficult is when you are on the long term. This is why it is so important to separate trade ideas by time frame. This means it is possible to be on a day trade time frame, while simultaneously on a swing or position trade time frame.
At S.C., we are long term and are accumulating inventory across a variety of coins during this period of crowd pessimism. There are a number of articles there that explain which coins and our reasoning. Since I am able to separate and categorize my thinking in terms of time frame and strategy, I am able to recognize the short term intent which is not in line with the bigger picture.
On the short term, this market is dominated by bears. If price breaks below 7312, I am anticipating the mid 7100's to high 6900's before the next support asserts itself. Keep in mind, price is within a broad that ranges from 8171 to 4983 (.618 support of entire structure relative to the 150 lows). This means it has a lot of room to fluctuate before another low is established.
In summary, long term not much has changed. When the crowd hates a market, that is a great time to accumulate at wholesale prices. This does not come without risk though. Someone recently asked me, when you accumulate, where do you place the stop. These are risky instruments that are in a space that is not regulated that same way as traditional markets. If you are in it for the long term, then it is all about risk control though appropriate sizing and the willingness to lose. If you can't lose, you can't win in these markets.
As far as the next swing trade long goes, there is no reason to be long at the moment. We will issue a signal for a swing trade long, with specific stop and target on S.C. once the market provides us with a good reason.
Questions and comments welcome.
The current price action is within the vicinity of a support zone and is hesitating. This shows some susceptibility to a short term squeeze, but until I see further evidence, I am steering clear of any new swing trade longs.
The best thing you can do is avoid the drama, hype and conspiracy theories that are competing for your attention. Price action is nothing more than a reflection of order flow, whether it is "manipulated" or not. My wide support zone is a function of market structure proportion, I did not make it up. It is a product of price action. If 6450 does not break, then a broad double bottom can materialize.
I see something similar happening, but NOT through traditional TA. And my work is right 75% of the time, so I don't care who laughs at me.
Take it as food for thought.. because ever since the future markets opened in March... TA is only right 50% of the time