I'm of the opinion we will not fall below the 90-EMA in the 4-Day TF. As I mentioned in the previous video publication, the 80-EMA may have very well been the bottom and it's just going to take a few days before we climb out of this downward pressure. However, if we do have another downward push to act as a small shakeout just before reversal to upward pressure, it may be that we only go down to the 90-EMA in the 4-Day TF before that reversal begins. The main reason I'm of this opinion is based on what I'm seeing in history. Does this mean history must repeat itself? No, not necessarily. I'm simply sharing my "opinion" of what we have seen in history.
If you have already bought in, I recommend NOT allowing emotions to coach you into panic selling. Fight your emotions and simply hold (wait). Cause it WILL come back up. If you allow yourself to panic on another push down, you may end up selling at or near the bottom and end up buying in higher. Which would result in you losing more coins. So, don't allow emotion to get the best of you.
Thanks again for everyone's support!
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
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NOTE the month of October DURING A BULL (Accumulation) Trend; NOT during Distribution like we have seen in 2014 Distribution and 2018 Distribution. We are in ACCUMULATION Schematic. Only one time have we seen a bearish month of October during Accumulation. That was in 2012.
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SocialCryptopreneur, provided some excellent observations and listed them below in Followers Comments section. Please read his observations -AND- my response with charts.
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I probably SHOULD have pointed this out during the video. I simply forgot to...
The text bubbles are self explanatory in each chart.
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Forgot to mention: The chart with the Red Text Bubble is the WEEKLY TF. The Chart with the Magenta Text Bubble is the 4-Day TF.
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Simply put: We should NOT assume we MUST fall into Distribution to much lower lows if the Weekly Candle Closes BELOW the 21-EMA. I've just shown by the two charts above where we had Weekly Candles CLOSE BELOW the 21-EMA. Yet, we did not fall into Distribution in a similar way as we did in 2014 and 2018.
This is WHY I prefer to use the 4-Day TF instead of the Weekly with EMA's that are OUT OF THE NORMALLY ACCEPTED (USED) EMA's.
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The Red Dots is the 21-EMA in the Weekly Chart with RED Text Bubble.
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This current 2-Day Candle began a little over an hour ago. A new 2-Day Candle will begin on September 28th. If we have not begun going up by September 28th and have not gone down yet, then we will likely drop further.
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About to do another BTCUSD publication explaining the following chart:
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65 to 75 percent chance the chart above may play out.
@ProwdClown - Certainly hope that you are keeping up your rest during this phase of BTC movement. I, also, have been looking back in history at the various movements versus Fibonacci Uptrend Retracements. In Phase A through D, it appears that the Fib Retracement has gotten as low as .618 of the initial SOS (Using Kraken Data) - the up move from 188 to 490 (August to November 2015) had a retrace to 300 (303 was the actual .618 Retrace). If we calculate the next move, from 300 (Low) to 781 (High), with a follow-on Low of 479, we see, yet again, a .618 Retrace (483 was the actual .618 Retrace). In both situations, the EMA 50, on the Weekly TF, very close to the 90 EMA on the 4-Day, served as support. If we look at the most recent Higher Low (7432 on Kraken) and the subsequent Higher High (13875 on Kraken), the current Retracement to 8000, puts us somewhere between the .78 (~8800) and the 100% at 7432. This suggests, at least insofar as I can read it at present, that we may have gone into Distribution at the High, rather than Consolidation. On the other hand, if we look at the entire first move as one move - 3122 to 13880, then the .618 of 7231, or thereabouts, seems like a very real possibility, and a complete break of the past pattern of the 1W 50-EMA/4D 90-EMA holding. Or, if we don't retrace to 7231, then we have broken the pattern on the Fib Retracements, as compared to past results. Do you have any thoughts on this?
The only thing that comes to my mind is that we had more buying pressure at this recent high (seemingly a Phase E type of climax mentality) and, therefore, that for some investors they are treating this as Distribution, while others are treating it as Re-accumulation. Is this possible? Could we have enough new investors in this space, coupled with "old crypto heads," that we are seeing some sort of hybrid scenario during this current movement?
I still contend we are in Re-Accumulation/Consolidation in Phase D and about to transition into Phase E. Have a look at the run up to $265 from last week of October, 2012 to April 2013. I'm NOT concerned with the HUGE drop after the Buying Climax there because we had a HUGE 20X gain from the low in October, 2012 to the high in April, 2013. What I'm more concerned with as AFTER it settled down a bit. It ended up coming back to the 80-EMA in the 4-Day.
Our run up present day was not 20X. It was a little over 3X from $3100+. So, we should not anticipate a HUGE drop AFTER the high present day in June, 2019 in a similar way to the April high of 2012. Because we simply did not have a HUGE gain. Only a little over 3X.
First week of July, 2013 was the ONLY OTHER TIME IN HISTORY in which the Weekly 21-EMA was broken YET we did not fall into Distribution. That is a prime example that we do NOT have to fall into Distribution "IF" we have a Weekly Candle CLOSE below the 21-EMA. Which is WHY I prefer to use Exponential Moving Averages (EMA's) in the 4-Day over the Weekly. It allows me to get a little more detailed in my observation and analysis of past events.
SocialCryptopreneur
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@ProwdClown, Thanks for taking the time out to address my question. I will do a deeper dive into 2012-2013. My only challenge is that, at least fundamentally, this market is far more mature now than it was back then - we have more players that are not Gamers and Coders and early adopters - these are sophisticated investors (like the folks at Baakt) and they know how to move in and out of markets through re-balancing of portfolios, etc. A 3x - 4x return for them is substantial in a short timeframe. Just thinking out loud as I try to keep the Technicals and the Fundamentals talking to one another in my head ;-)
I agree... The markets then were not "mature" like they have grown to be more "mature" now. I'll be interested to see and/or hear your findings on October, 2012/April, 2013.
The only thing that comes to my mind is that we had more buying pressure at this recent high (seemingly a Phase E type of climax mentality) and, therefore, that for some investors they are treating this as Distribution, while others are treating it as Re-accumulation. Is this possible? Could we have enough new investors in this space, coupled with "old crypto heads," that we are seeing some sort of hybrid scenario during this current movement?