btc_joe
Short

Is it time for the correction?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
3999 31 57
Why this could be totally wrong:

Monthly/Weekly close
1 week MACD looks strong
Cup and Handle break out
Potential ETF approval

Why this could be right:

All of the information in this chart
Could be a bigger cup and handle with handle just beginning
Not shown in chart:
1 week RSI MACD potential bear div             (oversold)
potential bear div             on 3d RSI (oversold)
potential bear div             on 3d MACD histogram
3d stock about to cross
While I’m extremely bullish overall, we could be at a similar time period/equivalent of April 2013
Everyone and their mother is bullish and expecting a bubble here
ETF rejected
ETF approved but “buy the rumor sell the news” (It’s not as if the ETF will start trading next week anyway)
Potential PBOC FUD
Potential BU FUD
Need to rekt 300k new coinbase customers—most of whom have probably already bought in (welcome to bitcoin! lol. It’s a rite of passage)

If correct, then the question becomes: Is this a running flat or expanding. A running flat will fail to breach the a wave down while expanding will go further, look for 5 waves down for completion.

Trade Active: 1197

Stop Loss: $1230
(tight stop, may look to sell again later if I get stopped out and the price fails to maintain above the pink trendline )

Gluck.
Trade closed: stop reached: stop was reached. Small loss. May sell again later if price can not maintain above pinkline as mentioned.
Trade active: 1277.
It looks like this should reverse soon if this count is indeed correct :
BTCUSD

3d closes tn, and 1w in a few days. If we make new highs again and spend any lasting amount of time in the 1300's then this should likely make it up to 1400, maybe higher and this could really be the start of a bubble and then this overall count seems to look questionable. Which is cool to, glad to take another small loss if bitcoin is going to the moon of moons, but will believe it when I see it, great risk reward. Gluck.
Comment: Seems like the move is coming soon...premium coming back on gbtc is not a good sign for the etf but who knows. Beware of the diamond top:
btcusd
Comment: Price broke down out of what could be a diamond top (as mentioned). Looking at the 1d, RSI broke down out of the channel, and MACD just crossed down:
snapshot
Comment: Locked in profits on 1/3 of position at 1155 b/c it seems we may go up for a right shoulder here. Seems a good move regardless. Can resell it higher or if the idea happens to be wrong b/c the ETF is approved or w.e the reason i'm in good shape.
Comment:
snapshot
Some wild stuff, now we find out what comes next, buy volume stronger on the way up for the left shoulder then on the head. More volume on selling other than the wackiness right now in anticipation of the ETF. Sold the 1/3 I had bought back from 1155 at 1248, panic selling proceeded. Great trade within the trade. Stay tuned. Lots of volatility.
Comment: Apparently the decision will be announced here, and will come today: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/bats.shtml
Comment: Denied, as if you didnt know lol, that was wild.
Comment: Thinking maybe something like this:
BTCUSD

Keeps hope alive through out most of next ween then the downtrend resumes toward the end or early the following week.
Comment: BU FUD as expected: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-13/bitcoin-miners-signal-revolt-in-push-to-fix-sluggish-blockchain
Comment: 50 MA has crossed down over the 100 MA on the 4h which has been a pretty reliable signal in the past.
Comment: What i'm watching:
snapshot
price can potentially flash to the low 1060's and still remain bearish here. If it were just a flash, the 1d chart would close with a nice doji. If it breaks that resistance for any lasting amount of time, and the 1d closes with a nice green candle, then maybe its time to reconsider things.
Comment: As anticipated, the price was able to make it up to the low 1060's but only for a flash, kissed my trendline quite nicely. This caused the daily do close as a doji (uncertainty/possible reversal). And now as you can see there are bear divs starting to from on RSI and MACD.And as noted ealier we got a bearish signal from the 50 MA crossing down over the 100.
snapshot

The price still seems to be at a pivotal point though, which could swing either way, but to me this info is suggesting down. A nice move should come soon, 2h bbands are tightttt. Alternatively if this were to break up, and break 1260 yet again, with some volume, that would be bullish, but I won't hold my breath.

Another thing to consider is we got some pretty bullish news yesterday with the collapse of a large number of BU nodes and they have become some what of a laughing stock, thus it seems unlikely we will be getting a hard fork any time soon. Which, if markets were rational, should have been caused a big explosion in price, yet the price kind of yawned.

So still can go either way, but looking bearish at the moment.
Comment: My first article for Cointimes.tech was published yesterday, check it out if you are interested!
https://cointimes.tech/2017/03/why-im-cautiously-bearish-bearish-on-bitcoin/
Comment: As I tweeted last night while the price was ranging between $1250-$1260, and 4h bband were converging, something was brewing.

The price broke down. Chart is looking great. Will provided an updated look at the 1d after closing.
Comment: Here it is, the 1d view:
snapshot

That was a real ugly 1d candle that seems to confirm my bearish view. Providing this updated view for context. Interesting how the MACD topped at the same level of previous tops, and RSI looks similar as well. This price action now makes the 3d and 1w (barring some breathtaking rally over the next few days) look like we are in for a nice bear trend within this bull market. Could take weeks, could take months. I would like to see 5 waves down on the 1d chart as per my EW count. Gluck.
Comment: More BU FUD, this time creating an ETH narrative, lol: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/17/bitcoin-price-blockchain-fork-ethereum.html
Comment: This is BIG news guys, the prospect of this will absolutely spook the markets.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-exchanges-unveil-emergency-hard-fork-contingency-plan/
I have to hope that sanity prevails, and this does not actually happen, if it does, get ready for $400-$500 bitcoin, could flash as low as $250-$300, who knows. There is one thing any market does not like and that is uncertainty.
Comment: For anyone involved in bitcoin, this thread is a must read:
https://twitter.com/desantis/status/842948698007113734
We are in the midst of a legit coup attempt on bitcoin.
Comment: https://vinnylingham.com/the-power-of-the-invisible-hand-56efaedfb544#.5us4hghdt good read for anyone in the community, btw I added to my position on the exchange news.
Comment: Typical 0.5 retracement, markets like to inflict the most pain possible. In that spirit, even making it up to the 0.618 would not be surprising but already looks bearish. Even more resistance at 0.618. Just updating:
snapshot
Comment: After the new low to the high 8xx's price rallied a bit, but now sellers are stepping in yet again at the 0.618 retracement of the last leg down. May not drop right away, seems unlikely we will make it past this level, maybe some sideways then a kiss of the red descending trendline:
snapshot
bulls got real excited, seems there is a lot of hope in the air still, does not feel like the bottom is in IMO
Comment: Took profits on 50% of position at $1060 when volume started to come in, and broke above the 100 MA on the 4h. Just risk management. Still not convinced we are out of the woods, but just seems obvious $1100-$1150 next up, can always sell gain.
Comment: Price has rallied more to $1100 as anticipated. Seems a bit more up is in store for now. Interesting to note, the montly candle just printed as a spinning top, after a long uptrend, which is usually not a good sign.
snapshot
There are the hints we get, they are not guarantees. If somehow we get confirmation segwit is coming, or there will be no HF, or some other big news, who knows, the bottom could in fact be in. But we shall see, i'm a skeptic until then.
Comment: Sold again at $1080 on the 50% fib kiss on the 1d, and weakness on 4h. That may be all the up we get, even if not, I don't think this will last.
Comment: BU crowd talking about a MASF...potential for some more FUD here. Also just adding this recently published chart:
Is bitcoin forming a right shoulder?
nice analysis. i concurr.
+2 Reply
bagofXMR bagofXMR
great call man!
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btc_joe PRO bagofXMR
@bagofXMR, : ) thanks
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bagofXMR btc_joe
@btc_joe, i personally think 990 will be the bottom (without a catalyst like an etf rejection) perfect to trigger 1000 psycologichal resistance panic sellers/bottom shorters. But still great call for the entry point and the timing, you really nailed it
+1 Reply
btc_joe PRO bagofXMR
@bagofXMR, I could see that, there is a lot of support in the purple area from multiple things, I didnt even include the 200 day moving average which is around there, but of course that doesn't guarantee we will get there : ) I'm looking for 5 waves down (some type of flat)
+1 Reply
btc_joe PRO bagofXMR
@bagofXMR, but I do like the idea of temporarily breaking that 1000 barrier then surprising everyone, should be interesting to see how it plays out.
+1 Reply
bagofXMR btc_joe
@btc_joe, we'll see. at the end we can't predict the future, we can just choose the prices that have odds to be a reversal and choose proper stops/targets to end up earning more than we loose.
+1 Reply
btc_joe PRO bagofXMR
@bagofXMR, Amen
Reply
btc_joe PRO bagofXMR
@bagofXMR, looks like that was a great call! But I do not think we are out of the woods yet do you? I still think we are in for a few weeks/months of downtrend, and eventually make it to my purple area at least.
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bagofXMR btc_joe
@btc_joe, I was kinda thinking we would still go further down, but we are already trading above pre-etf levels (that wick up and down should be ignored imo they just tried to make order books thiner to increase volatility). I personaly took a small loss in my short and currently looking for a new position.
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nice
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I like this chart.
+1 Reply
btc_joe PRO LifeIsABullTrap
@LifeIsABullTrap, thanks bud, lets make it come to fruition : )
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A correction to 1160 at 200 sma is enough...
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@Ramirez, *if this count is correct then not really, judging by the length and time of wave a and b, and the expectation of 5 waves down for c, that would not really be enough. It may not be correct though, of course. The ETF is coming, the next btc bubble and all that jazz, I get it, so everyone is in buy the dip mode. If that's all actually in the works, then shit this may be totally wrong, and there may not even be a real correction. But we shall see, time will tell, as I mentioned if we start making new highs here and make into the 1300's for any lasting amount of time then this count is probably off.
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man we are getting very close to etf auto-approval
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btc_joe PRO moneytrigz
@moneytrigz, thats true, doesn't *necessarily mean the price will go up and start making new highs/bubble right away : ) Could be a sell the news type of thing, and many other things at play as described. Matter of fact, just looking at the chart, this looks real bearish and confirming of what is predicted. Absolutely could be wrong, we shall see.
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btc_joe PRO moneytrigz
@moneytrigz, should be interesting to see how the daily closes.
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moneytrigz btc_joe
@btc_joe, yes i suspect a correction (profit takers) before 11th of march with "sell the news" but if approved get ready for off the charts bulltrend $1650 first milestone
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moneytrigz moneytrigz
@moneytrigz, ive had prof traders that never held or traded $btc now asking me how to safely secure bitcoin , and wanting to buy 50k worths just due to the ETF decision event. and if it doesnt pan out they are willing to hold long term, remember in general only the "early adopters/buyers" see this price for bitcoin as "high" price, for others its their entry point. and i dont only look at TA charts, because i look at correlated markets and risk factors like demonization, capital controls, political risk & confiscation. we are still at a very early stage for bitcoin imo. i have good amount of fiat on exchange in case it dips/not approved, and have big amount of btc in my core reserves ready to rock for the etf approval, and even then dont know if i would sell any. ears to the ground because things will get interesting.
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let it commence :)
+1 Reply
my stop limit did not execute on bitfinex!! made me lose 1.5 btc and it not even my fault had stop limit @ 1230$ , in contact with support now to resolve this.
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btc_joe PRO moneytrigz
@moneytrigz, oh man, sorry bro.
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btc_joe, target 1 = $ 840 in actual ?
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on ur last comment, so u mean pretty reliable signal it is going down? thanks for updates btw
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btc_joe PRO moneytrigz
@moneytrigz, of course. And ya, well just a good signal in general when they cross but in this case 50 crossed down over the 100 so thats a bearish sign.
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thanks for update! looking forward for further analysis after the results today
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thanks for update buddy
+1 Reply
snapshot
i got this
+1 Reply
these updates on this idea gave me so much understanding of the market dynamics man, thanks a lot for this.
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btc_joe PRO WhaleScout
@WhaleScout, of course! glad to hear that. At the end of the day the market wants what it wants. We get hints, and sometimes we can use them well, but every trader is wrong all the time, its more important to manage risk then to try to always be right.
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