Hey guys, I'm up with new analysis, a new idea about BTCUSDT.
Here you can see a bold red curve which is actually the famous 11-years-resistance line (actually from the time Bitcoin is launched). Past data shows that whenever we touch this resistance, the bear market starts.
Here is what I have noticed:
"0.618 fib level and bear market targets"
In 2011, the price of BTC reached about $34 before dropping to about $2.5 which lies at 0.618 fib retracement level.
The principle of this analysis is that for the next bear market, we can calculate the approximate bearish targets using the fib retracement tool, putting 0 fib level at the 0.618 fib level of the previous bull run. Then we will get to know the bearish targets for the bear market i.e again at 0.618 (61.8%) level. I know this is surprising but yes, it has been working since BTC trading has started.
Following this principle:
In 2013, 61.8% fib level was at around $123 and the price retraced to $155 from $1269 in 2015.
In 2017, 61.8% fib level was at around $3091 and the price retraced to about $3100 from about $19000 in 2018.
Now in 2021, 61.8% fib level is at around $20357 and the price is expected to be retraced to this level. The current price is $31434.
Also, just to remind you that I have also shared an analysis 9 days ago entitled :
In conclusion, I would say that technically it is the start of Bear Market and my bearish price targets are $20357. After the targets are hit, BTC price will continue ranging below 21EMA until the start of the next bull run which historically starts just before Bitcoin Halving and gets sped up after the event of halving. Next Bitcoin Halving is expected around February 2024.
The good thing is: As Bitcoin will continue ranging with Bitcoin Dominance low, Alts will pump hard but to make this happen, we need to eradicate or maybe lessen the fear in the market.
what is the indicator you are using for the 11 year resistance line please?
yankeekay0001
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Hmmm, thanks for this great post. Let's see how this plays and move along with the trend.....i think it's best time for me to sell all my Altcoins cos when this BTC corrections take place all other Altcoins suffer too....sell and later rebuy, i just hope it's a good idea if i rebuy when the corrections set in...
Thanks
syedmuneebali
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@yankeekay0001, Selling in loss is not a good idea at all!
yankeekay0001
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@syedmuneebali, thanks for the advice boss but when is likely this correction gonna take place? How soon? Weeks,months
Thanks