This is an updated analysis on the trajectory of bitcoin using a Monte-Carlo simulation of 2000 random walks, as well as Fibonacci retracement levels. While almost everyone was caught off guard by the recent downturn, this has provided an opportunity for institutions that missed out on the initial hype surrounding block-chain to enter the market.
In addition, the Monte Carlo is levelling out and maximum walks are ending over 50k. The long-term bitcoin forecast is now relatively close. Five months is a short amount of time for returns of this magnitude.
Monte Carlo methods retrieve variables from data that represent characteristics of Bitcoin that would otherwise be impossible to visualise. Most quantitative techniques project a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin is returning to the median.
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Random walks were not wrong. Unfortunately the time element is not indicated.
I mean in terms of price prediction this is absolutely bullsh*t but hey, it's beautiful.
filbfilb
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Interesting that the top of the random walks in 2014/15 was c3.2k
asgcorp
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lmao.
CurrencyCapital
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...and then a solar flair hits lol
gencdahi
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A Small Bounce Will Come to $5800-$6000
qyvern
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I mean, I don't doubt the math, but anyone who thinks we'll be anywhere near 20k after 5 months needs to get a reality check
GrantPeace
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@qyvern, Volatility indicates that 20k is more than reasonable.
qyvern
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@GrantPeace, again, the numbers are saying that sure, but human behavior is what drives markets, not indicators.
The market had been severly injured, it needs time to recover. It's like a computer saying Michael Shumaker can still race because he's still got two arms and legs...
It's not wrong exactly, but it's totally abstracted from reality.
bebopcolagood
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@qyvern, What I learned from this market over the last year and a half is that it almost always does the opposite of what my gut feeling says it will. During the hype, my gut said it will keep going up. After some correction, my gut said it will stabilize. After it stabilized at 6400, my gut said it will start going up.
Right now my gut is telling me the end is near. I think i've finally learned not to trust my gut. We maybe be in for some tough lows, but @GrantPeace can absolutely be correct here.
actualapartments3
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@wgwine, after you trade for 10 years your gut will be the best indicator. Going to $1780. $3300 first then up.