Looking at the Super cycle shouldn't we be looking for the C wave of wave 4. You can see I've pointed to the C wave in wave 4 of Wave 1 and 3. We should be looking for the same pattern now. Considering Bitcoin repeatedly truncates it's C wave we should be looking for a C wave termination around $7,000 but considering bearish market emotion we could easily see it pushed lower. Either way this count means we are looking for the start of Wave 5, the pot of gold at the beginning of the Rainbow.
Interesting take. I only have trouble counting the sub-waves of your (iii) inside of wave (3)... they don't match the right proportions. What appears to look like sub-wave 3 of it is actually the shortest.
Mycomorel35
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@yope, This is the more detailed count I have, I know it's a little hard to make out my pivots with the big numbers I used on the original chart in this post. I have dug through and qualified the waves and pivots and don't see anything that would disqualify it. No wave 1 high violations and wave 3 is the always the longest. For me the hard part was qualifying the fifth because the argument could be made That what I have as 5 of 3 could be 1 of 5. But when you get down to lower time frame and depending on which exchange you look at, specifically coinbase it looks like a 3,4,5 double top in the fifth, but I know EW can be subjective at times. I guess at this point none of that matters too much because the 3rd wave superstructure is complete. There just seems like a lot of points pushing this market to $3,000. Don't know if it's personal subjective bias that just makes me see the confluence or if it's actually there. I mean if you look at the Gann I have on this chart (I know it's a bit of a mess on the daily) but the downtrend fan is pointing directly to the 1:1 of the large 3rd wave fan at $2,650. Thanks for the feedback it's always nice to share ideas and have others look at your work. Really appreciate it.
yope
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@Mycomorel35, Yes, this count looks more feasible than the one on the chart above it. Unfortunately this is just an image, not a chart, so it is hard to tell. I will try to reproduce your count and see if it makes more sense than mine. What strikes me though, is the fact that your chart implies that we are at the end of a wave of the same degree than the one that started the bear market in 2014, which is a little bit odd, since both are complex and deep. That, if you count 2015 to december 2017 as one big wave 3... It would make the 2014 bear market a wave 2 and what we are seeing right now a wave 4. Waves 2 and 4 are usually of opposing complexity and depth.
Mycomorel35
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@yope, You're referring to the guideline of alteration in corrective patterns. I have thought about this as well and your right, the only way I can account for this is that we are seeing a much sharper correction in this 4th and should see a rapid climb into the fifth. Which could be the case since it took over a year for the last bear market to complete on a flatter trajectory. If that's the case it would make sense for us to see this current wave structure we are in (I'm thinking WXY at this point maybe Z) finish within the next couple months. If this wave is going to be the bottom of the 4th then this correction would be a much sharper correction than wave 2 and may still apply to the guideline of alteration. I know it may be a stretch but it's bugging me because I probably have over 500 hrs tearing through this chart trying to find alternatives but it keeps bringing back to this same place. Like I said it may be that I've built a bias and haven't been able to shake it.
yope
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@Mycomorel35, Yes, I was referring to the rule of alternation. It is true, this correction is steeper than the wave 2 in 2014, but this only says something about time, not price. Both corrections are hitting 78.6% retracement (that would be around $4400 according to your count), and that's too much for both waves if it is wave 2 in 2014 and wave 4 now. The rest of your count seems feasible though, for as far as I have been reproducing it. Maybe if you have a look at my chart and see if I made a mistake somewhere. What I like about mine so far is the fact that 2014 is wave 2 of a Super-Cycle, and what we have now is wave 4 of the next internal Cycle. Wave 4 of the Super-Cycle is yet to come (probably by end of 2018), and it should be shallow (38.2%-ish). The shallow wave 2 of the current Cycle wave is also fully accounted for, making a good case for a deep and complex Cycle wave 4 we are in right now. Maybe that beauty can help shake your bias ;-)