Jean-Paul Rodrigues "Stages of a Bubble"

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I zoomed out on BTC             and immediate remembered the Stages of a Bubble diagram by Jean Paul Rodrigue. At the same time I am bullish on Bitcoin             long term. Always nice to check yourself and your hope, markets dont care about how you feel. "Never fall in love with a stock".

Not trolling, just for the sake of constructive discussion: this kind of analysis has been posted multiple times at a fraction of todays price. At 2500 usd this chart was being posted everywhere. Cycles like this (overshooting and return to the mean) happen on a monthly basis and will happen on longer time frames, but why asume this is the top? What makes your chart better than this ?
kharak villar.martin
@villar.martin, Thats a nice simple chart! But as you might know the user Alste. has been a bear since the summer, calling tops all the way here. If he keeps calling tops, im sure at some point he will be right, but I put the value of his opinion as much as Bitcoin Obituaries . I was simply comparing BTC to the bubble diagram, but as @chwi03 has pointed out, some of the major trend lines have not been tested.
+1 Reply
I made this comment on another post this morning, and thought I'd re-post here. I'm not really "long term bearish" on Bitcoin, but market data should not be patently ignored.

Looking at the top 50 coins -
* December 10, BTC had 63% of a $390 mil market, with BTC market cap of $233 mil
* Jan 9, BTC has 37% of a $678 mil market, with BTC market cap of $249 mil
To lose 26% market share in only one month is actually pretty astounding. .... $300 million poured into market in the last month, and BTC is still trading at the SAME PRICE as a month ago. -- as I interpret it, this means that only 5% of new money was put into BTC in the last month, with 95% used to purchase other cryptocurrencies!

Now, I can see one of two things happening:
* BTC bulls take over SOON, driving BTC to past the $17k-18k area, causing a bunch of the money in the altcoin market to rotate back to BTC. Let's say this happens and BTC can retake 50% of market share... 50% of $678 mil total market would be a new $339 mil market cap for BTC, an increase of about 50% from current, for a new high of around $22,500. From there, the bulls can keep control and drive it higher.
* BTC bears keep control, and BTC follows additional correction patterns down to $12k, or simply keeps trading in the $12k-16k range for another few weeks. In this scenario, new money will keep coming into the market -- but new money will heavily go into altcoins vs BTC, driving BTC's overall share even lower.... let's say BTC market share can drop to 20% of a $800 mil market (among the top 50 coins). ... This would give BTC a new market cap of only $160 million and a trading price of about $9,600.

NOW, let's say the second option happens... if $650 million is in "coins other than BTC" then BTC will almost definitely lose #1 position to Ethereum, and possibly drop even further down the list of coins to #3, #4, #5...

And, people will realize that even with Bitcoin's incredible year last year, that AMONG THE TOP 40 COINS LAST YEAR, BITCOIN'S RETURNS WERE #21 ON THE LIST!. And, Bitcoin will become like "Myspace vs Facebook" and will cement it's trading along the "new normal" price of about $4,000 (depicted in the "Lifecycle of a Bubble" chart) and slowly rising from there as the overall market grows.

To be clear, I'm not "calling" a reversal to a longer-term bearish trend. Trend lines, especially long-term ones, are strong. Trend lines are my top indicator, and the longer-term bullish trend has not been broken. However, this market data is really sticking with me. While others have also posted, here is the specific "bubble" chart that I was referring to. FWIW, we are perfectly following it at the moment. I will be watching the market closely to see if BTC can stay above the long-term bullish trend line.
kharak chwi03
@chwi03, Thank you for insightful comment. BTC losing its "papa crypto" position would change things quite a bit, many whales would benefit. Who know what is going on behind closed doors and private chats.
Although data can often be skewed to present itself in a particular manner to tell a narrative (i.e. log vs. linear scale), it is amazing to see the market mimicking a thoroughly known, text-book scenario, of market cycles.

Because crypto is a very emotionally-driven market, and currently, those coming into this space are foaming at the mouth with greed, I would not necessarily expect a catalyst to take place in order for us to come down.

We cannot forget the amount of speculators that have come in late to the game, and those who drove up the market to 20k on credit card spending via Coinbase... let alone the whales that we must surrender ourselves to, like an ant on top of Everest.

I am mostly impressed by the harsh criticism, just from you having shared your chart. Many TAs on this site have influenced many to lose large sums of cash, and if anything, this should be a good reminder to keep a cash position at all times for future opportunities to come.

I thank you very much for reminding people like myself, that haven't been in this market for a very long time, that should be dollar cost averaging our way in, to distance ourselves from the FOMO/FUD that have gotten us here in the first place.

May January 2018 be a great month for all of you.

- CT
kharak crypto_teller
@crypto_teller, Thanks for a thoughtful comment. The kind of flaming comments i see about any bearish trend just proves that this is an extremely emotional market, and farther proves elliot waves and bubble trends. So far its scary how this graph is filling in, but BTC is holding at 20MA on 1D TF. In this emotional market, if we keep seeing red and bear trends, there will be a snowball of fear and we could dip very low.
The trend has been the same as the 2000's NDX so far. But maybe it is a bear trap. Who knows? Market Knows. So we can wait for the trend. Thanks for your reminding.
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