Looking at the top 50 coins -
* December 10, BTC had 63% of a $390 mil market, with BTC market cap of $233 mil
* Jan 9, BTC has 37% of a $678 mil market, with BTC market cap of $249 mil
To lose 26% market share in only one month is actually pretty astounding. .... $300 million poured into market in the last month, and BTC is still trading at the SAME PRICE as a month ago. -- as I interpret it, this means that only 5% of new money was put into BTC in the last month, with 95% used to purchase other cryptocurrencies!
Now, I can see one of two things happening:
* BTC bulls take over SOON, driving BTC to past the $17k-18k area, causing a bunch of the money in the altcoin market to rotate back to BTC. Let's say this happens and BTC can retake 50% of market share... 50% of $678 mil total market would be a new $339 mil market cap for BTC, an increase of about 50% from current, for a new high of around $22,500. From there, the bulls can keep control and drive it higher.
* BTC bears keep control, and BTC follows additional correction patterns down to $12k, or simply keeps trading in the $12k-16k range for another few weeks. In this scenario, new money will keep coming into the market -- but new money will heavily go into altcoins vs BTC, driving BTC's overall share even lower.... let's say BTC market share can drop to 20% of a $800 mil market (among the top 50 coins). ... This would give BTC a new market cap of only $160 million and a trading price of about $9,600.
NOW, let's say the second option happens... if $650 million is in "coins other than BTC" then BTC will almost definitely lose #1 position to Ethereum, and possibly drop even further down the list of coins to #3, #4, #5...
And, people will realize that even with Bitcoin's incredible year last year, that AMONG THE TOP 40 COINS LAST YEAR, BITCOIN'S RETURNS WERE #21 ON THE LIST!. And, Bitcoin will become like "Myspace vs Facebook" and will cement it's trading along the "new normal" price of about $4,000 (depicted in the "Lifecycle of a Bubble" chart) and slowly rising from there as the overall market grows.
To be clear, I'm not "calling" a reversal to a longer-term bearish trend. Trend lines, especially long-term ones, are strong. Trend lines are my top indicator, and the longer-term bullish trend has not been broken. However, this market data is really sticking with me. While others have also posted, here is the specific "bubble" chart that I was referring to. FWIW, we are perfectly following it at the moment. I will be watching the market closely to see if BTC can stay above the long-term bullish trend line.
Because crypto is a very emotionally-driven market, and currently, those coming into this space are foaming at the mouth with greed, I would not necessarily expect a catalyst to take place in order for us to come down.
We cannot forget the amount of speculators that have come in late to the game, and those who drove up the market to 20k on credit card spending via Coinbase... let alone the whales that we must surrender ourselves to, like an ant on top of Everest.
I am mostly impressed by the harsh criticism, just from you having shared your chart. Many TAs on this site have influenced many to lose large sums of cash, and if anything, this should be a good reminder to keep a cash position at all times for future opportunities to come.
I thank you very much for reminding people like myself, that haven't been in this market for a very long time, that should be dollar cost averaging our way in, to distance ourselves from the FOMO/FUD that have gotten us here in the first place.
May January 2018 be a great month for all of you.