Hi guys! after using my holiday, really just sleeping, i am back! yesterday, we saw another crazy moment in BTC. It dropped to 5.8k, made a crazy run to 6.6k, and now it is 6.2k! What a false, false breakout! just in one day! In normal classic bitcion market, BTC will NEVER DROP to 6.2k like in just hours after it went to 66. 4hour 21ema support(6250~70), 63.4/63.8 support, 64.7 support ALL BROKE DOWN, I mean, melt down! unbelievable! in normal
bull runs, supports act as supports pretty much, and retracement does not go so fast!
yesterday i saw all these junky bearish divergence at all time frames, and it could not seem to be breaking the wedge upwards! however i saw a bullish engulfing candle at 4hr, trying to come up to the ichimoku clouds. I opened short at 6400ish in prior, but I didn't give up and stoploss my money. I knew even though upwards coming, they could not break the 66 resistance so easy! I opened MORE, and MORE at 6580/6620 ALL bought, my average was 6548. I sold it at 63 levels, earned profits...but something doesn't feel right now.
It is because this false breakout seems to be so harsh, day by day!
as you can see in the chart, just look at the ugly up and downs for just a week now! yesterday, also was a btc futures day, which helped the boom. see we had that false BREAKOUT, and just came back inside the wedge.
however, you can see the rsi is making higher highs, higher lows which is nice. so for what I expect, I expect this to come visit the double bottom in coming days, if it is 5800 or 5900, or even 6000. it can still now
try to break the upper line of the wedge, around 6380~6450, or even 65, 66 again, but it has a chance to fail and resume downwards in the coming days.
daily chart, seems a little indecisive. so we found a bullish hammer candle, which i think is significant, meaning lots of buyers at 58 level. parabolic sar tries to make a upwards movement, RSI seems to make HH, HL's, see directional movement, that indicates uptrends and downtrends. we were in consistent downtrend as the blue line came down(orange line up), but now it tries to meet at some point. But Daily RSI, in terms of resistance, you can see that 40 level, 50 level all has resistance. all rsi levels from 45~ over 50, has its price over 6.8k, and for now, IF WE DO NOT FIND A NEW LOW BOTTOM, i think even if we do have a reversal, run may be up to 6800~7100 the highest. I think btc still has to hit a low, as said 5.2~5.5k to confirm a nice run upwards toward 7.4~5k. after a short run, i think daily RSI will AGAIN hit oversold 30 and below, and try to make a real bull divergence there.
so, market became so!!!!tricky! it might go up to test the upper wedge, or it might just collapse! we never know! but, it did make a higher high 6640 yesterday, so there is a chance it might come for that in coming days, or after double bottom is made!
observe the 4hr chart. btc has hard time breaking the red think clouds! day by day, this is becoming so harsh now! so this can indicate some trading moves too.
anyway below are the trading plans.
so guys, shorts are risky! this run may be to liquidate shorts, so you have to wait at least upper 64, or 65, 66 and ladder up more in upper levels for this. if they try this they will try to make a double top, or make a hgher high,
like 6700 but now i doubt it. so shorts are not recommended, but check rsi see if it is higher when price peak is lower, you can try to enter. longs, you guys need to wait! going long at 6k zone, well, i would wait for a bottom to be made, at the bottom of the wedge.
safe trade!
bull runs, supports act as supports pretty much, and retracement does not go so fast!
yesterday i saw all these junky bearish divergence at all time frames, and it could not seem to be breaking the wedge upwards! however i saw a bullish engulfing candle at 4hr, trying to come up to the ichimoku clouds. I opened short at 6400ish in prior, but I didn't give up and stoploss my money. I knew even though upwards coming, they could not break the 66 resistance so easy! I opened MORE, and MORE at 6580/6620 ALL bought, my average was 6548. I sold it at 63 levels, earned profits...but something doesn't feel right now.
It is because this false breakout seems to be so harsh, day by day!
as you can see in the chart, just look at the ugly up and downs for just a week now! yesterday, also was a btc futures day, which helped the boom. see we had that false BREAKOUT, and just came back inside the wedge.
however, you can see the rsi is making higher highs, higher lows which is nice. so for what I expect, I expect this to come visit the double bottom in coming days, if it is 5800 or 5900, or even 6000. it can still now
try to break the upper line of the wedge, around 6380~6450, or even 65, 66 again, but it has a chance to fail and resume downwards in the coming days.
daily chart, seems a little indecisive. so we found a bullish hammer candle, which i think is significant, meaning lots of buyers at 58 level. parabolic sar tries to make a upwards movement, RSI seems to make HH, HL's, see directional movement, that indicates uptrends and downtrends. we were in consistent downtrend as the blue line came down(orange line up), but now it tries to meet at some point. But Daily RSI, in terms of resistance, you can see that 40 level, 50 level all has resistance. all rsi levels from 45~ over 50, has its price over 6.8k, and for now, IF WE DO NOT FIND A NEW LOW BOTTOM, i think even if we do have a reversal, run may be up to 6800~7100 the highest. I think btc still has to hit a low, as said 5.2~5.5k to confirm a nice run upwards toward 7.4~5k. after a short run, i think daily RSI will AGAIN hit oversold 30 and below, and try to make a real bull divergence there.
so, market became so!!!!tricky! it might go up to test the upper wedge, or it might just collapse! we never know! but, it did make a higher high 6640 yesterday, so there is a chance it might come for that in coming days, or after double bottom is made!
anyway below are the trading plans.
so guys, shorts are risky! this run may be to liquidate shorts, so you have to wait at least upper 64, or 65, 66 and ladder up more in upper levels for this. if they try this they will try to make a double top, or make a hgher high,
like 6700 but now i doubt it. so shorts are not recommended, but check rsi see if it is higher when price peak is lower, you can try to enter. longs, you guys need to wait! going long at 6k zone, well, i would wait for a bottom to be made, at the bottom of the wedge.
safe trade!
Comment:
Guys! btc is moving. for the last hours it has consolidated at 62, 63 levels. it might have a chance to make a higher high than 6640. going long is risky, but if you can at lower 63 level try. i would wait for shorting. from 6580/6640/6740/6810 can be a open spot. the indicators tell that this challenge can be possible, even though now it seems not convincing. so just in case, open shorts, if it comes we buy, if not no buy. and after this can go all the way down!
Comment:
opening shorts, this is the deal guys!
Comment:
if the bulls break this 64 resistance, and 6470, it can go straight to 65, or 66 like yesterday. they have very little time now to break that, because 4hr ichimoku clouds are pushing them out so hard now. let's see if they can break it.
Comment:
Btc weak, showing bear div alteady. You can vuy small amount at 64 level i think wait for 65.
Trade active:
boom! here we go! i got in at 6450. i think i will sell this 6150/70, 6080 if it comes. if 62 holds there you can sell. you can hold it until 5k, not recommended though.
Comment:
guys, bulls defend 62,63zone! they are in the ichimoku clouds 4hr, not to fall down. sell your shorts, take profit for now.
Comment:
have good time trading!