Immediately following a breakout of the downward resistance trend on May 2, 2017, the price of Bitcoin moved through an up-up-down-up (pink-red-pink boxes) pattern, ultimately ending at a new high on Aug 15, 2017. The two purple boxes established a new resistance trend, which held until Nov 23, 2017, when a breakout of that downward trend then occurred.
This analysis considers what happens if the recent breakout from resistance is throwing the market into the same pattern as the previous breakout did, assuming that Bitcoin is in an exponential trend of valuation growth.
Details In the first pattern, in units of [% gain / days], the slopes of the boxes are: 2.6 (pink), -1.1 (red), 4.7 (pink). So far in the second patten, the slopes of the boxes are: 5.6 (pink), -1.7 (red). Assuming a constant growth in slope in each of the respective boxes between patterns 1 and 2, the slope of the next pink box is likely to be 9.7. If the next pink box unfolds over, say 35 days (all boxes so far have had periods between 24 and 41 days), this yields a 339% gain over the last pink box, which puts Bitcoin price at 40,000 USD in the later half of February.
we all have to remeber that CME is in the Game NOW. Do you all questioned yourselfs when the future contracts sold by CME will finished and give its profits/losses? It will ocurr every last Friday on the contract month.
Do you understant the importance of this? If we are seeing a movement to low (or a tendency to up), it will continue until the end of the month because this movement is giving profits for CME and they will want to maximize the profits.
Good luck for you guys, that want to go against the tendency determined by CME.
-Listed Contracts:
Monthly contracts listed for the nearest 2 months in the March quarterly cycle (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) plus the nearest 2 serial months not in the March quarterly cycle.
-Termination Of Trading:
Trading terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on the last Friday of the contract month. If that day is not a business day in both the UK and the US, trading terminates on the preceding day that is a business day for both the UK and the US.
ManuelMalagon
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I don't think is going to be 44k by mid-February unless there is some good news around BTC and right now everything is bad news about it. I hope I'm wrong, please some tell me I'm wrong and why.
we all have to remeber that CME is in the Game NOW. Do you all questioned yourselfs when the future contracts sold by CME will finished and give its profits/losses? It will ocurr every last Friday on the contract month.
Do you understant the importance of this? If we are seeing a movement to low (or a tendency to up), it will continue until the end of the month because this movement is giving profits for CME and they will want to maximize the profits.
Good luck for you guys, that want to go against the tendency determined by CME.
Source: cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_contract_specifications.html
-Listed Contracts:
Monthly contracts listed for the nearest 2 months in the March quarterly cycle (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) plus the nearest 2 serial months not in the March quarterly cycle.
-Termination Of Trading:
Trading terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on the last Friday of the contract month. If that day is not a business day in both the UK and the US, trading terminates on the preceding day that is a business day for both the UK and the US.