DrJLT
Long

BTC double top @ 20k

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Miraculously, bitcoin averted decline @12k & started climbing back up. It appears to have regained the energy it enjoyed in the beginning of December. Everything looks to be quite bullish , while the indicators aren't overbought yet.

It's reasonable to expect 20k in the near future. What happens next will be interesting:

  • On the one hand, it remains possible for bitcoin to post new ATHs.
  • However, it's also possible that it'll fail the retest & return to the support of the mid-term trend (green line marked "irrational exuberance").

Assuming that media attention & accelerating market penetration since the announcement of futures in Nov justify this mid-term trend -> i.e. it'll develop into a new long-term trend from here on --- there's no fundamental change to justify a further acceleration. This means bitcoin is likely to form a small "double-top" at 20k and revisit the 14k area thereafter.

This is likely to be a more rational process, which means the support won't be broken. Afterwards, the bounce may also be slower and follow the trend line closely.

Of course, if some news breaks...

Check out my website: http://www.jlteng.com
Comment: it appears that the "double t" is quite droopy; the 20k target is missed by a mile
one more great TA, based on fundamental analysis ! just what I love to see. thanks again.
+2 Reply
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