There is no doubt, at the moment the crypto market is in a bullish cycle, buy volumes are much higher than selling ones. However, every trend needs correction. Today I want to consider 1-Day BTC/USD chart to show you when should we expect the correction and how far will it go. Usually, moving averages (MA20) and exponentials moving averages (EMA20) illustrate a trend condition very clearly. The majority of traders use these tools to find the main resistance and main supports.
The first SHORT cycle started from $6300 and ends at $3200 which is ±50% profit. This SHORT we will take as a starting point, as it was the first strong movement of the new market trend. The second cycle was LONG - the correction of a last big fall, a growth from $3600 - $4200, which is ±22% profit. The third cycle - SHORT, the price was moving in a tight corridor, there was a flat, however, we can mention some downward movements from $3800 to $3300 which is ±13% profit. The fourth cycle was LONG and it is the most interesting and valuable one, price pumped from $5600 to $9100 = ±160% profit. No comments. The FIfth cycle (the actual one) - SHORT, again. The main resistance of this cycle is located at the $8200 level, the main support is located at the $7000 - $6625 zone. In case this level will be broken - we have supports at $6200 and $4650.
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So far there is no intention of heavy profit taking. It would take some really discouraging news for massive selling of that magnitude.
mackbrown
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@TradingShot, Yeah, like 3 whales jumping off the shrimp boat after they'd had enough time to incrementally pile on SHORT positions using 100's of accounts...
MichaelEssing
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Don't you think that BTC is heavily manipulated and this setup can be shown us to pump it with our stoplosses?
BillCharison
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@MichaelEssing, the main thing about TA is that you have to divide true patterns from fake ones. That's why your question is a worthy one. Still, in our case chances aren't equal, I think that these cycles are true ones!
NaturalPatterns
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@MichaelEssing, it still is very affected by normal wave behaviour. After massive up, many sells and it corrects.
The whales will not buy up All the sells at a top, then they will soon be baby Wales, and later sardines
LittyKimmy
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Good mid-term analysis, thinking about the perfect entry point in a great SHORT position. What could you suggest?
BillCharison
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@Robert_Mercer, well, that's an understandable move!
AlanSantana
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The Bears House...
Bitcoin is looking bullish right, what's your take?
dralerte
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Whenever an idea gets too popular, maybe best to take the road less traveled.