The past three days have been more than crazy with Bitcoin soaring 40% following the comments of China's President Xi. Saturday's 26th candle printed a rare formation with more than 50% retrace on closing from the daily high. I thought it would be useful to see how this rare candle pattern traded in the past.
Since 2012 I managed to find another 5 occasions of such occurrence (50% pull back on closing). All of them delivered a sharp fall almost right after that candle with the exception of October 15, 2018 when the drop took 13 days to happen.
It needs to be mentioned that based purely on the candle shape, the more similar sequence with the current action is the August 31, 2013. Even though it was an extension of a bullish sequence, the one candle before and after is fairly identical.
How the current price action will unfold is hard to say with safety but one thing is certain. Human psychology is quite similar under specific conditions and this is why trading patterns are repeated over and over again. The -50% closing from the top on the candle that is being reviewed is indication of heavy profit taking and/ or strong Resistance presence (until it is broken). The same kind of investor behavior we see on the other 5 occasions which occurred in completely different time periods.
Do you think BTC will repeat a sharp decline after this immense 3 day rise as it happened in the past? Or it is the start of a new much stronger bull run? Let me know in the comments section!
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I don't know what you guys in here talking about parabolic run here soon are talking about... Some of you don't remember the deep abyss and dispare we were in after the deep correction actually started after we dropped from 6k to 3k.
We are NOT DONE correcting yet... We haven't even started the *deep* correction yet boys.
Nobody is calling for the end of Bitcoin yet, not a lot of people have been in deep panic mode at 7k. There is "optimism in the air" currently. Bitcoin is trending on Google. You guys think it's really going to just take a handful of months to correct?...Really?
Well I dont... I remember the 6k drop all too well. I remember being in just the same type of hopium-ish type of mood thinking that the correction was done at 6k, and we were going to magically float up in the 25k skies by THIS time right now.
Uh uh... All of you veteran traders in here know a hell of a lot better than that. And I for one 100% agree with TradingShot on at least the fact that we have much lower to go from here.
This hard 180 pump and dump is full and clear evidence in my mind that not only are we not done correcting, I think we may actually break the lower log arc that has never been broken since the beginning of Bitcoin.
Not only that, but if you look at the monthly Gaussian, you come to realize that Bitcoin has NEVER EVER actually been in a "true" correction. EVER... We have never even hit the mean Gaussian ONCE on monthly... Not a single time. Another shocking thing that you'll notice is on the 20 and 50 SMA on the monthly are STILL in sell. The last time this happened was near June of 2015 when we did end up dumping close to 40%-50% from the top to very bottom, and we were definitely inside the Gaussian channel on the monthly. Currently, we're not even close...
FYI the top of the Gaussian channel is currently riding the log curve. I fully expect us to at minimum hit that...
Also, anything seem familiar to you guys in this chart?:
jordanmorin13
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@Zulu_Kilo, this mentality is going to be the biggest mistake of your life I don't know what you did to piss god off to put you in such a terrible position but u better get on ur knees ask for forgiveness and ask him to show u the light and the truth because ur gonna be on the ground very soon in the dark crying and begging for mercy when u get shortsqueezed all the way up to 14000+ when u finally realise u COULDNT HAVE POSSIBLE HAVE BEEN MORE WRONG FROM THIS MENTALITY IF YOU TRIED YOUR ABSOLUTE HARDEST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! POOR POOR BASTARD U MUSTVE DONE SOMETHING WRONG..... I WANNA CRY JUST READING UR POSTS... ITS LIKE READING A SOB STORY.... FOR WHICH I KNOW WHICH IS TO COME.... ITS JUST HARD TO FATHOM!
bobsbluebull
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@jordanmorin13, Your opium is next level. Let me know when we pass the blow off top we had in July. It's been dropping steadily since like it always has!
jordanmorin13
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@bobsbluebull, dude.... u just simply COULD NOT BE MORE WRONG.... it doesnt matter what happened im telling u WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT.... and well.... this move up was NOTHING compared to whats to come in the coming weeks.... see you at 20k my freind im sorry u have to go through this... i tried to warn you....
Great to see this analysis... When this candle closed I stare a while thinking how odd it was, and it's significance should be taking into account as one more ingredient.. and you've just done that!, thanks... I think that will retrace and is something to considering to all doing swing trading
TradingShot
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@oscarromerom, You're welcome Osc! Glad I can help!
stellar33
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that has nothing to do with that
TradingShot
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@stellar33, Comparing similar past price action surely has something to do with current projections.
We are NOT DONE correcting yet... We haven't even started the *deep* correction yet boys.
Nobody is calling for the end of Bitcoin yet, not a lot of people have been in deep panic mode at 7k. There is "optimism in the air" currently. Bitcoin is trending on Google. You guys think it's really going to just take a handful of months to correct?...Really?
Well I dont... I remember the 6k drop all too well. I remember being in just the same type of hopium-ish type of mood thinking that the correction was done at 6k, and we were going to magically float up in the 25k skies by THIS time right now.
Uh uh... All of you veteran traders in here know a hell of a lot better than that. And I for one 100% agree with TradingShot on at least the fact that we have much lower to go from here.
This hard 180 pump and dump is full and clear evidence in my mind that not only are we not done correcting, I think we may actually break the lower log arc that has never been broken since the beginning of Bitcoin.
Not only that, but if you look at the monthly Gaussian, you come to realize that Bitcoin has NEVER EVER actually been in a "true" correction. EVER... We have never even hit the mean Gaussian ONCE on monthly... Not a single time. Another shocking thing that you'll notice is on the 20 and 50 SMA on the monthly are STILL in sell. The last time this happened was near June of 2015 when we did end up dumping close to 40%-50% from the top to very bottom, and we were definitely inside the Gaussian channel on the monthly. Currently, we're not even close...
FYI the top of the Gaussian channel is currently riding the log curve. I fully expect us to at minimum hit that...
Also, anything seem familiar to you guys in this chart?: