I think we are under estimating the strength of cycle III. Typically an impulse wave should have at least one extended wave: 1, 3 or 5. Since wave 3 does not appear to be extended (~161.8% of 1 which is typical ratio for a third wave) vs wave 1 we should expect wave 5 to extend. Typically wave 5 extends 100% of the distance traveled by waves 1 and 3. So, depending on where exactly wave 4 ends the market could reach ~600K. To be honest, I do not believe we will have a bear market this year. Maybe next year.