Back on the 29th May I gave you the exact profit taking targets (Blue box on the chart). I am sure some of you think that I was mad to take profits as Bitcoin was going to the moon! But, what if, the price didn’t go to $13.8k in one straight line? What if, the price didn’t even get to $10k and starts to drop? Do you get what I mean? It’s difficult to predict market movement (half of those who predict BTC to $100k in 2018 have somehow vanished). As a speculator, you have a projection, a strategy and risk manage your positions. That’s it! Nothing more! Remember how I told you in 2018 that Bitcoin was going to drop to 3-4k yet I still kept buying at $6000ish and were still be able to make good profits?
As I have repeatedly mentioned, my strategy is simple -
1. Buy low & sell high
2. Take 50% profits when 2:1 rr ratio is achieved and leave the remaining positions until critical resistance (or long term hold)
3. Re-invest my profits at good support and ride the wave up
And my projection going forward?
Initially when price broke out of $7,500 I thought the bear market has probably ended. However, I was waiting for Bitcoin to pullback and consolidate before start moving up again. Surprisingly, it never happen. Instead it went straight to my huge @ $13,829 in one line. Many called this a start of new bull-run just like what happen in 2017. In my opinion, they are either naive or are probably just crowd pleasing “professionals” looking to gain followers.
First, the accumulation between 3-4k was too short to think that a new bull run has started. Second, a new bull run does not start with a parabolic movement. Further, there was no resistance whatsoever back in 2017 after the previous ATH @ $1,200 was taken out. The price just kept going up until when everyone, even your friend surround you who have never open a trade before, start to invest in Bitcoin . The bubble burst. In contrast, currently there are still many resistances on the way up to $20k. How can you compare the two? Different context, different scenarios.
As a result, my best guess now is that the market is trying to find it’s range. Probably between mid 5k and 16k. The range may sound too wide to be able to trade. However, if you focus on buying at good support (just like what I have been doing) and apply your strategy of trading a ranging market, you will probably be able to find some profitable trade setups. At present, the next potential buy zone is around $7k.
Of course, I will keep giving you timely updates in my channel. A follower mentioned that I don’t post ideas often. The reason is that I want to give you the most profitable and reliable trades I can, instead of giving you updates every few hours just to gain followers.
Some other advice:
- Check the trader’s past records first and don’t follow the ideas blindly - why would you trust someone else with your money?
- Don’t trade the news - I have called many price movements days/weeks before a news event was released. Yet, people still believe it’s the news that drive the price movement.
- The moment you think making money is easy, the moment you are going to lose
- Don’t be greedy - don’t go all in on one trade and not profit taking
- Risk management - Have a stop loss and check if the rr ratio is good before entering a trade
- Take profits on those trades that your have hold for more than 12 months first - not sure about US but in Australia your investment is entitled to capital gain tax discount if you hold the investment for more than 12 months
Bitcoin has hit resistance. You can either take another 10-15% profits and keep your SL at $11370, or you can move SL to $12k.