Until now I have felt a at 6k was the most likely, but upon checking the chart today I feel scenario 3 is most likely. From my perspective it is VERY hard for BTC to close below 5k. Not only is this a strong technical level, but psychological too. I forsee the bankers, whales and their clients pushing prices below 5k, taking out shorts and buying it right back up for the recovery to begin.
You can see from my previous ideas that my forecasts for supports are usually very accurate. Anyone who sold their house to buy in the second green zone as instructed would be an extremely happy individual now.
In summary, watch for the key supports illustrated in scenarios 2 and 3, and don't give into all the bears and panickers talking about 1-2k if 6k breaks.