BTC/USD - Its not done, yet !

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Complex waves once more on Bitcoin . There is no sign of bull here yet, just a bear's playground.

To be honest i was expecting this to touch 7.5k or 8k before a serious bounce, but "someone" else with a much bigger wallet and brain capacity was expecting it also and he decided to play along just a little more.

Seems like it has already started while i was working on this, oh well, better late than never...
Comment: Just a little attempt to catch the knife at the nice round number of 9000. Its too late, damage is done. It broke RSI support line, it turns into resistance now.
Comment: Although there are some really bearish patterns on the chart, i wouldn't be impressed if this stops at 8.5k and bounces to the moon from there. The market maker cant surprise you when you expect almost everything.
Comment: Bitcoin should be close to a short term uptrend near the 8k area.
Comment: Forgot to mention "No financial advice" and "dont catch the knife" .
Comment: This should be close to bottom too, but i feel like its the same as LTC. Needsa bounce above 8k for that 4th wave confirmation. Alt count in yellow and circles.
Comment: On the 4H it looks like a reversal, so it can be a 3-3-5 also. But i still think there is one more wave missing..
Comment: There might be some steam left on this mini rally, but the main trend is still down.
Comment: As long as it doesnt make a lower low, im considering this scenario as a possible alternative. The fibs line better this way.
Comment: Well cyan abc should be wxy...
Comment: Ok, so the count above is invalid since it made a lower low. The one on the main idea is still valid though.

Bitcoin, is approaching the first target, this is a potential bounce area, but im not sure about reversal. I have a slight alternative count of the main idea but it points on the same targets. Either way, temporary bounce or reversal, i will post a new idea once i got enough validation points for each scenario.
Trade closed: target reached: First target reached, high chances of short term up trend soon.
Trade active: Laddering buys till 7.2k, short term target near 8k.
Trade closed manually: If you have checked the comments below, you would knew that im no longer in a position. I sold at break even because i didnt feel comfortable with all this side ways action while being away from my PC. I will try to provide recent updates as a compensation in case you followed the trade. Gotta find some reason on this mess..
Comment: I was about to post the update, but i got this. I dont trade based on news, but a lot crypto traders do. We all know how this market works, so this MAY or MAY NOT affect the current price. Update delayed for a while to see if it has any effect.
Comment: We dont trade based on news. News dont appear at the right time coincidentaly either good or bad. If you did trade based on this and didnt take partial profits at the other end of the wedge, fear will slowly get you and that may turn to panic and we all know that panic leads in pressing that nice red button.
Comment: Judging by the crazy amounts of long contracts bough on BitMex, this is heading to the moon, without the need of bearish count invalidation, lol.
I will still wait for the count invalidation and retracement tho...
Comment: There are also some crazy amount of longs sold on BitMex.
This chart is on Finex, which leads most of the times...

Comment: The vertical line is a bit off on the pic above, should be more to the right, I messed up the timezones, sowwy!

I think that we have 5 waves up, so this might be the top for now. New update or idea tomorrow, once this settles and we have a more clear picture.

Alts "moon'd" during this period, profit went to btc and now slowly to fiat.
My bias is that we will see a lower low, but not far away from the local one during the next 2-3 days.
Comment: Something doesnt feel right on Bitcoin, so i will turn back to one of my older counts.
Bigger XZ can be also counted as 1-2 since it doesnt make a lower low. The target for the smaller X is just a guess according to the current data. If we hit 10k, this count is invalid and we have bullish confirmation.
Comment: Alright, so this seems more like an "anomaly" of breaking out of the wedge. Nothing new here, just trading by the news.

Back to the wedge, Bitcoin.
Comment: Same pattern, we just shrink it a little to make it more natural.
Comment: There is a strange pattern happening on Bitcoin lately that i had noticed and wanted to share. It happened during this down trend after 11.7k but the funny part is that it started just before reaching 11.7k in a smaller time scale. Making money the past days is really hard, the majority of profits come out of leverage contracts.
Probably this is why we cant agree on a reasonable EW count on this drop.

Comment: Alright, change of plans! Im still not convienced that this is the bottom, but some one wants to play the trend line game. Game on!

This should retrace sooner or later, anywhere between 7.6k - 8k makes its short term bullish with a target of 9.5k - 10k , later on.

Comment: Nothing unexpected here, I would re-adjust my view if it goes above 9.3k without some serious retracement. I have shared this image with few people earlier today.

And this is how it looks now:

I didnt posted them here because the post would be too long and it was a high risk trade. I was thinking of posting intraday updates with my thoughs on twitter, but they were pretty hostile last time. LOL!
I may give a shot if there is enough interest.
Comment: The info was there guys, i posted Alexander's idea so you could see another point of view.... Surpriiiiiisee.
Comment: I have no idea whats happening on BTC, but...

"fibs dont lie" - Shakira
Comment: If you havent checked the private idea above yet, its doing good so far. This whole structure doesnt make sense so far, is way more fun on the smaller time frame.
Comment: I still dont have a valid count for this fiesta. But im pretty certain, that an uptrend doesnt start with a lower average volume than the downtrend. I will probably wait for the weekly close before posting a new idea. I will be posting some random thoughs on the private idea above in the mean time. If and when the market shows some clear singals except from bots, gamblers and triangle traders playing around.
How low will it go, Acel? :D
Acel pkilchermann
@pkilchermann, honestly i have no idea. But i will be waiting around 8050 +-100 unless it shows more strength. I will update once i see something. I dont wanna spam it without having something new to add, its already too big...
@Acel, Understood, my friend - thank you very much for sharing your ideas. -PJK
Hi Acel, loving the BTC updates.
Would love your thoughts on APPC which I asked you about a few weeks back.
I'm not sure if this is just a continuation of wave 4 correction or if wave 5 was just very short...and now it's beginning of new impulse series?
Thanks for your time :)

Acel kitkat16
@kitkat16, It still inside that pitchfork and 6h SMI is giving a sell signal. Use the same settings and see if it bounces on the zero line, or if it breaks out of the pitchfork.
+1 Reply
@Acel, thanks heaps mate. Can I ask what the name of that pitchfork is? Doesn't look like TV's standard pitchfork.
Thanks so much again!
kitkat16 kitkat16
@kitkat16, sorry to bother you, last question: the blue curved line making the cup. What indicator/setting is that?
cheers bud.
Enjoying your BTC updates. Can't believe you've only been doing this less than a year (right?). Amazing.
Acel kitkat16
@kitkat16, about 2 months actually. :)

Its the Schiff variation. Blue line is just a polyline for a potential cup and handle pattern. The lines on the pitchfork are .618 and 1.

+1 Reply
@Acel, 2 months!? wtf?
You'll be an absolute beast in 12 months lol.
Thanks so much again. Learning alot from your posts.
Acel kitkat16
@kitkat16, be careful with this one, its on a dangerous spot...
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