The case for that being the BTC bottom

First of all, I should say that the drop in BTCUSD on Monday 22nd January didn’t really feel like a bottom. I didn’t see much panic. That said, I think the problem with following prominent people on cryptotwitter is that there is no sense of panic even during the down-days!

It would obviously be disappointing to a lot of us if the drop to $9927 was the bottom for the next month or so, having heard chatter about sub-$9k entry point opportunities.

However, there do seem to be a bunch of strong indicators that suggest that $9927—and, six days before it, $9,222—may be as low as the market will go.

• First of all, the 125 day moving average (a light purple area in my chart) has basically not been breached since the start of 2017, and has operated as major support on numerous occasions. Price came very close to touching it this week, and bounced off it last week.
  
• The grey area in the Fibonacci retracement is the lowest level from the $19,666 top in December — a full retrace.
  
• The long-term trident on a log-scale chart (green diagonal area) and the bottom of this range (highlighted as a diagonal pink line) was breached in this week’s price action. On the 17th, it was breached, but the price closed above it three days in a row. This week, price has closed below it, making this indicator a little suspicious on this particular action. This may be a strong indication that there is more of a drop to follow (especially if you buy into the theory of manipulation around Futures contracts closing on Friday 26th).