SimonMercier

BTCUSD : update of 7k target

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi guys,

So overall indicators have extended lateraly since our last talk but have conserved their bullish divergence .

I gave you the tip to watch a potential 4h macd bullish crossover that didnt happened and here we are again. I project if 4h MACD dont goes to the positive spectrum we gonna retrace a lower support in a small WXY form. On the other hand. going to positive gonna give a nice impulse up :


I cant really name this current form ; wave 1-2, in regards to the projection because the resistance kinda negate a wave 5 if i take fibonacci ratio of a 1-2 hypothesis. Pattern recognition gonna work better once/if we go there.

Daily indicators are still in favors of bulls since we are still in a bullish divergence and would be unlikely (less than 50% probability) to go further down, breaking support, for now. Histogram extended in the time but still contracting which conserve the bullish divergence for the histogram and make us still expect a bullish crossover. The flat daily MACD lead me to think of a consolidation before further up move (bunny ears form)
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We are still moving in compressive triangle so we can expect impulse and price expansion at the end of it. Something like this.


I favor the bulls because the TA and reason i made above which i resume here:


I cant remember where i saw a double flat bottom ( inv bunny ears form) that failed to give bullish outcome. Thats why on the mid term i favor bulls but dont discard a short term bearish retracement to lower support. Remember that i work mostly in macro time frame like daily and 4h so patience my friend and take good position when time come.
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To clearly resume in simple words : probaility of lateral fluctuation with minimal move up or down with bullish mid term outcome
Sep 19
Trade active: If 4h MACD completly fail to gain momentum and continue we can expect this. This one is not really visible on my daily indicator but exist on xmaller time frame :

Sep 19
Comment: thanks to the guy in the comment section making me to do some depper count :

WXY pattern recognition bearish scenario:

Sep 19
Trade active: cool day. things going fast. D reached :

Sep 19
Trade closed: target reached: going for E :

Sep 19
Comment: will make a recap tomorrow and discard less probable scenario
Sep 20
Trade closed manually: report to the part II here :
Clearer post this one is kinda messy.
wtf dump->up
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SimonMercier cardan6006
@cardan6006, its like both of my scenario fighting. watching.
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hmmmm, you are very optimistic. but without any volume coming in to the rescue of BTC, and the past continuation of downward momentum leaves me thinking that we are heading down, sub 6k within the next couple days or so. lets hope you are correct
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@astoinis, well i would say that technically from a patter recognition perspective its probable but i like backing my projection with some indicators and discard less probable scenario. I would add some trend line to your projection but technically it works if you only use the pattern books
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@astoinis, just updated on the scenario B exactly at the time you posted your comment ahah
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@astoinis, i prefer my count since it follow the rule of wave lvl
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