This is what I prefer to see as the most cautious downside target. But as I have explained several times elsewhere, the rising of the possible triangle has been bothering me in that it is very gentle and not symmetrical with the declining . Hence almost giving a look of descending right angle triangle. Also checking various other indicators it seems that I am fully prepared for this alternative and more likely possible out come with possible low forming in the region of $100 - $200 zone as measured move downside target. This also fits the EW guideline that on completion of a cycle, the retracement could retrace back to wave 4 of one lesser degree which you can just about see on the bottom left of price chart being $100 zone.
Take it for what it is and only considering TA and not the fundamentals for which I have not experience or grasp. Better this scenario never comes about and you are prepared than the other way around.
We exchanged views few months back. At that point in time I thought this was going to be triangle while you proposed flat wave correction. Yesterday triangle scenario was discarded and we are potentially into bear market now. However there is another possible explanation. I think what happened yesterday could be end of C wave of common flat correction. If this view is correct we should see market going above $410-420 soon which will be buy signal in my view.
Also on 4h chart you can see potential ending terminal with extended 5th wave. https://www.tradingview.com/e/tmYOLjww/
The price movement the farther you go back fits less and less into elliot wave guidelines and patterns on any scale. The young market seems to have been prone to manipulation of price and erratic movements. This seems to be caused by the fact that one exchange handled 80% of bitcoin trading at one time and the majority of it for a long time. Not to mention it was a very small market.
No matter how I try to count, I find rule violations on these large cycles.
I have been handling each "bubble" cycle individually in the recent ones, which I know is not correct but has been working and showing excellent profit, but it would be nice to know where we are on the larger cycles.
I would like to know how you decided to count the early waves. Do you consider the two 'bubbles' prior to the April 2013 and the one in April as one cycle with an extended fifth wave up to ~260?