Bitcoin - Short & Intermidiate term still Bearish

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
4680 35 19
This is not necessarily an new chart. Take a look at my previous charts and and Youtube video here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnpdt2YABY8 - explaining potential triangle.

This is what I prefer to see as the most cautious downside target. But as I have explained several times elsewhere, the rising trend line of the possible triangle has been bothering me in that it is very gentle and not symmetrical with the declining trend line . Hence almost giving a look of descending right angle triangle. Also checking various other indicators it seems that I am fully prepared for this alternative and more likely possible out come with possible low forming in the region of $100 - $200 zone as measured move downside target. This also fits the EW guideline that on completion of a cycle, the retracement could retrace back to wave 4 of one lesser degree which you can just about see on the bottom left of price chart being $100 zone.

Take it for what it is and only considering TA and not the fundamentals for which I have not experience or grasp. Better this scenario never comes about and you are prepared than the other way around.
Hi Dan,

We exchanged views few months back. At that point in time I thought this was going to be triangle while you proposed flat wave correction. Yesterday triangle scenario was discarded and we are potentially into bear market now. However there is another possible explanation. I think what happened yesterday could be end of C wave of common flat correction. If this view is correct we should see market going above $410-420 soon which will be buy signal in my view.


Also on 4h chart you can see potential ending terminal with extended 5th wave. https://www.tradingview.com/e/tmYOLjww/
Impressive work, Dan, look like your prediction materializes again. I understand that if we go well below your support of 370-380 on BitStamp, then the next likely stop would be in the general vicinity of $240? Like $220-$260 area?
Hi Dan, thanks for your answer. I was here a couple times yesterday and today looking at btc charts, but I have not figure out how to use chat here. Do you do group chats with your followers? I have also noticed that there was not so much enthusiasm in buying - although the tide turned a little, slightly improved bid volume on bitstamp and more bigger buy bids. Moreover, on bitcoin forums some people who bought last Nov/Dec were announcing they sold are their investment and are quitting bitcoin and generally most people are now discussing how low bitcoin will go - so it seemed a bit like capitulation. Although after such a spectacular rally it still seems rather underwhelming. Difficult to tell for me, I do not have any money in btc now so perhaps this is why I still feel that there is no blood in the streets. If you ever want to chat with me, feel free to chat me up :).
Hi Dan, I am very interested in hearing your take on the recent development (bitcoin price). Your predictions have been spot on so far :) Do you think 400ish will serve as a lasting support and your more optimistic scenario will happen? Or do you still lean towards $100-$200? What should we watch to tell if the current modest upward move is a bull trap? TIA
DanV PRO Asterix
Sorry for late reply. Not sure if you were present yesterday, I commented in the chat that the bounce was not showing a sign of new impulsive leg to the upside. But rather a retracement. Hence whilst not conclusive, it seems 400 will be severely tested and probably fail. But still cannot at this stage jump to conclusion.
not Zero?!
DanV PRO HosseinMansouri
You have eyes and brain to answer that yourself. Anything I say will be insulting to you based on your interaction with me in the chat. So I will leave it there. Thanks.
Impressive predictions Dan, great job. I should be learning those EW, they don't seem to be easy though. I'll keep watching your youtube videos and see if I can manage to learn something about those waves ;-) Thanks a lot.
Hello there. I'm new to trading view and this is one of the first charts I've come across. I too use Elliot in my analysis, but I have found that I have a VERY difficult time using it on the scale you used and was wondering how you would respond to the difficulties I've found.

The price movement the farther you go back fits less and less into elliot wave guidelines and patterns on any scale. The young market seems to have been prone to manipulation of price and erratic movements. This seems to be caused by the fact that one exchange handled 80% of bitcoin trading at one time and the majority of it for a long time. Not to mention it was a very small market.

No matter how I try to count, I find rule violations on these large cycles.

I have been handling each "bubble" cycle individually in the recent ones, which I know is not correct but has been working and showing excellent profit, but it would be nice to know where we are on the larger cycles.

I would like to know how you decided to count the early waves. Do you consider the two 'bubbles' prior to the April 2013 and the one in April as one cycle with an extended fifth wave up to ~260?
eYou bigmoney33
Please check DanV's history of charts here on Trading View. There you'll find also charts about the larger cycles in Bitcoin.
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