DanV
Short

Bitcoin - Short & Intermidiate term still Bearish

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
4661 35 17
This is not necessarily an new chart. Take a look at my previous charts
BitStamp - Still in Triangle wave (iv) of 3 Consolidation
and
Bitcoin - In Triangle in Wave 4 Consolidation & its Significance
and Youtube video here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnpdt2YABY8 - explaining potential triangle.

This is what I prefer to see as the most cautious downside target. But as I have explained several times elsewhere, the rising trend line of the possible triangle has been bothering me in that it is very gentle and not symmetrical with the declining trend line. Hence almost giving a look of descending right angle triangle. Also checking various other indicators it seems that I am fully prepared for this alternative and more likely possible out come with possible low forming in the region of $100 - $200 zone as measured move downside target. This also fits the EW guideline that on completion of a cycle, the retracement could retrace back to wave 4 of one lesser degree which you can just about see on the bottom left of price chart being $100 zone.

Take it for what it is and only considering TA and not the fundamentals for which I have not experience or grasp. Better this scenario never comes about and you are prepared than the other way around.
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Forgot to mention - CMF seems to be showing serious selling pressure and OBV could confirm soon if the 540 short term support give way.
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ShortThePlanet
2 years ago
$100 target for April? LOL
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DanV MOD ShortThePlanet
2 years ago
Possibility is there. Even if it takes little longer than April. Many said the same thing earlier and scoffed at the idea when the price was north of $1000. So do you have an alternative view and chart to share? Would love to see it, really. No laughing matter at all.
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ShortThePlanet DanV
2 years ago
Well, just try to use all your EW knowledge but using daily closing prices only.
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DanV MOD ShortThePlanet
2 years ago
Thank you for that. I will keep that suggestion in mind when considering updates.
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BitWave PRO
2 years ago
You're EW expert maybe, but you know nothing about bitcoin mining...
No one sell the coins at $100, the mining cost is more than $400 now.
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Muwa BitWave
2 years ago
Supply from speculators would be sufficient to drop it to that level in case of a capitulation. Miners can't control what the speculators do.
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BitWave PRO Muwa
2 years ago
Well, just check the historical data )
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DanV MOD BitWave
2 years ago
No need. It is my view from TA. As I have already acknowledged that I am not giving the fundamental any consideration nor would I be able to get my head around it. So take it for what it is. If it sounds silly, then dismiss it. No problem.
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ShortThePlanet BitWave
2 years ago
Hey! It's very interesting. Btw, where can I see the historical data of mining cost (if this data exists)? I don't mine, but it would be interesting to see how the mining cost corellates with the price over the past 2-3 years and were there any cases of the price diving under the mining cost
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DanV MOD BitWave
2 years ago
Thank you for that very enlightening explanation.
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yadudoc BitWave
2 years ago
Bitcoins did trade in the 100 dollar range on Bitfinex/BTC-e and Gox with past couple of months.
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DanV MOD yadudoc
2 years ago
Yes I have seen that, but don't know what to make of it. Some have said it was momentary with hardly any volume. However, the bounce since has not exhibited impulsive new upside move, so whatever it was the bounce since is still corrective and part of overall correction of the previous run up to ATH.
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yadudoc DanV
2 years ago
Small market cap, with shallow orderbooks and one players with a massive stash ( > 50K BTC ) can easily wipe out the orderbook on multiple exchanges. I suspect folks with insider info. I don't think it is unreasonable when the news over the past few months have the potential to undermine the trust of the public.
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sonus BitWave
2 years ago
Miners aren't the only ones with Bitcoins.
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DanLaffas
2 years ago
Thanks for sharing Dan. I've been studying yours and other's methods and ideas lately in the hope of getting a good grasp on TA. Your charts seem to make sense to me and have helped me take the focus off emotional forecasting/analysis. I can understand that news/emotion have an effect on the movement but I'm realising the market has to be set up first and the news is just the catalyst. Mind you, when you've got your own $$$ in play, it can be bloody difficult to stick with the plan - I've learnt that the hard way.

I have taken your ideas here and added some fib and trend lines to see how they relate to each other. Just posted it here
BFX Daily - Short the hell out of it!!


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DanV MOD DanLaffas
2 years ago
Thank you for your appreciation. You have a good handle on not allowing emotions to rule the head. Excellent point. This exactly what happened when price was north of $1000 and many participants commented that I don't know what I was talking about and all the fundamentals backing the Bitcoin etc in suggesting few months ago that price could drop to $400 and lower. They made the case that It is in new uptrend and first made decline was 3 drive down so the major bottom is in, Well history has shown that these almost evangelical sentiments did not result in Bitcoin going to the moon just yet. Also excellent application of my chart with your own touch. Well Done.
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DanLaffas DanV
2 years ago
I'll admit I still find it difficult to see the price drop to $300, 200, 100 etc as I've been looking at the past bubble patterns expecting it to go to the moon already (like so many others). That's my emotional mind wanting it to happen. Also, the white noise from others clouds my judgement. I'm starting to see who I can listen to and who is just all bear/bull.

My logical mind agrees with your charts. It's just that I'm blinded by the emotional side and I don't see these patterns until you and others point them out - then I'm like DUH of course!! :D I just hope I can control my nerve while I'm in the trade and it's crossing each target. Who ever said this shit was easy!

Keep up the good work.
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DanV MOD DanLaffas
2 years ago
Thanks for that. Need all the friends I have. On the point of emotion, may be position size needs to be review if it cause so much stress. Once the turning point has been identified, then gradually you can build your position with the other eye on overall risk. Hope it helps.
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Xanyu
2 years ago
Thanks for the chart, it's very helpful.
I use EW to trade my BTC and it works very well just until now.

In one chart i see a complete 8 waves(wave 5 topped at 1000-1100USD and wave b topped around 9xx then wave c bottomed at 400 just few weeks ago)

In another chart I see wave goes just like yours, if the price keeps going down, wave abc will become a new large wave (A) and then keep going downward after new wave (b) then repeat endlessly until we hit 0

Since you are a better EW user then me, just wondered if you know there is anyway to find out the bottom via EW before that wave is finished in stead of saying there was the bottom we just missed.

Thank you :)
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DanV MOD Xanyu
2 years ago
Hi. Thanks for your appreciation. Trying to anticipate a bottom or turning point s what all TA is about including EW. There are some clues about likely tops o bottoms forming but we have to first have some idea where to look for it rather than constantly looking for it. Then types of swings, their relationships and general structure or trend lines, S/R it could all help. But no 100% way of doing so specially so far in advance other than an attempt like my chart and others who publish it or share. Stay with me, who knows we might locate the likely place for such an event:)
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Xanyu DanV
2 years ago
Thanks for your reply.
If I remember it right In EW the point (e) always(more then 60% ?) go over or can not reach the line of the triangle (I see this act as a bull/bear trap just before the price take off or dive down)
In our case point (e) could finished at any point makes it so hard to find the bottom via EW which is drives me crazy : (
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bigmoney33
2 years ago
Hello there. I'm new to trading view and this is one of the first charts I've come across. I too use Elliot in my analysis, but I have found that I have a VERY difficult time using it on the scale you used and was wondering how you would respond to the difficulties I've found.

The price movement the farther you go back fits less and less into elliot wave guidelines and patterns on any scale. The young market seems to have been prone to manipulation of price and erratic movements. This seems to be caused by the fact that one exchange handled 80% of bitcoin trading at one time and the majority of it for a long time. Not to mention it was a very small market.

No matter how I try to count, I find rule violations on these large cycles.

I have been handling each "bubble" cycle individually in the recent ones, which I know is not correct but has been working and showing excellent profit, but it would be nice to know where we are on the larger cycles.

I would like to know how you decided to count the early waves. Do you consider the two 'bubbles' prior to the April 2013 and the one in April as one cycle with an extended fifth wave up to ~260?
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eYou bigmoney33
2 years ago
Please check DanV's history of charts here on Trading View. There you'll find also charts about the larger cycles in Bitcoin.
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DanV MOD bigmoney33
2 years ago
I agree for sure it is not the easiest thing to label these, Also the short term historical data makes it hard. So I have made some considered assumptions and until proven wrong work with it. Consider my 1st attempt at seriously putting larger wave counts on this charthttps://www.tradingview.com/v/T8P3OlxT/

Since the MGox demise, the labels have not been updated as data for that has stopped. But I have transferred the cycle counts and continued it with BitStamp. So far I am still happy with it. But it volatility does not make it easier.
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grahvity DanV
2 years ago
Fixed link.

BTCUSD - Intermediate term Bearish
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DanV MOD grahvity
2 years ago
Thanks for that:)
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BasurillaUno
2 years ago
Impressive predictions Dan, great job. I should be learning those EW, they don't seem to be easy though. I'll keep watching your youtube videos and see if I can manage to learn something about those waves ;-) Thanks a lot.
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HosseinMansouri
2 years ago
not Zero?!
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DanV MOD HosseinMansouri
2 years ago
You have eyes and brain to answer that yourself. Anything I say will be insulting to you based on your interaction with me in the chat. So I will leave it there. Thanks.
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Asterix
2 years ago
Hi Dan, I am very interested in hearing your take on the recent development (bitcoin price). Your predictions have been spot on so far :) Do you think 400ish will serve as a lasting support and your more optimistic scenario will happen? Or do you still lean towards $100-$200? What should we watch to tell if the current modest upward move is a bull trap? TIA
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DanV MOD Asterix
2 years ago
Sorry for late reply. Not sure if you were present yesterday, I commented in the chat that the bounce was not showing a sign of new impulsive leg to the upside. But rather a retracement. Hence whilst not conclusive, it seems 400 will be severely tested and probably fail. But still cannot at this stage jump to conclusion.
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Asterix
2 years ago
Hi Dan, thanks for your answer. I was here a couple times yesterday and today looking at btc charts, but I have not figure out how to use chat here. Do you do group chats with your followers? I have also noticed that there was not so much enthusiasm in buying - although the tide turned a little, slightly improved bid volume on bitstamp and more bigger buy bids. Moreover, on bitcoin forums some people who bought last Nov/Dec were announcing they sold are their investment and are quitting bitcoin and generally most people are now discussing how low bitcoin will go - so it seemed a bit like capitulation. Although after such a spectacular rally it still seems rather underwhelming. Difficult to tell for me, I do not have any money in btc now so perhaps this is why I still feel that there is no blood in the streets. If you ever want to chat with me, feel free to chat me up :).
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Asterix
2 years ago
Impressive work, Dan, look like your prediction materializes again. I understand that if we go well below your support of 370-380 on BitStamp, then the next likely stop would be in the general vicinity of $240? Like $220-$260 area?
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ryopphdi
2 years ago
Hi Dan,

We exchanged views few months back. At that point in time I thought this was going to be triangle while you proposed flat wave correction. Yesterday triangle scenario was discarded and we are potentially into bear market now. However there is another possible explanation. I think what happened yesterday could be end of C wave of common flat correction. If this view is correct we should see market going above $410-420 soon which will be buy signal in my view.

https://www.tradingview.com/e/M2tGDONQ/

Also on 4h chart you can see potential ending terminal with extended 5th wave. https://www.tradingview.com/e/tmYOLjww/
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