Major Support: ~6950
**This is only an observation, not financial advice**
It has been apparent to the community that BTCUSD entered a bear trend just before the beginning of 2018. The above chart loosely measures the in/decreases during this time, INDEPENDENT of external factor effect (FED, Mt. GOX, Regulations, etc.).
When BTC touches the upper trend line and fails to breakout (Light Blue Box), we witness the following.
5 Days : -31.42%
4 Days : -22.78%
5 Days : -23.74%
Average: 4.67 Days : -25.98%
When BTC does not touches the upper trend line, but instead falls from a mid-point (Yellow Box), we witness the following.
3 Days : -21.02%
1 Day : -15.33%
4 Days : -14.73%
When BTC is in a decline and fails to bounce off the trend support line, the effect (as anticipated) is much greater. (Pink Box)
7 Days : -41.30%
Interestingly, the positive trends have almost perfectly alternated for periods of 3 and 6 bars. (Green Boxes)
3 Bars : 19.03% 6 Bars : 38.63%
3 Bars : 15.06% 5 Bars : 9.73%
3 Bars : 13.54% 6 Bars : 20.57%
Average: 3 Bars : 15.88% 5.67 Bars : 22.98%
Finally, BTC's retrace after failing the trend showed a similar difference from the typical positive trend (Blue Box)
14 Bars : 61.34%
It is at this point that many regained (some) confidence in BTC, with the assumption the trend reversed and BTC began a new, although weak, bull market.
We see that buyers came in huge during the 2/6/18 session, with the highest session volume we have seen since the fall from 20K. Bouncing off a Trend Line set back in Nov-17 (which can ~generally~ continue even further back).
BTC moving through the bear market resistance line, which was previously a support, continuing its rise at a more accelerated pace. Until we reach the Yearly (Fib) Pivot (Pink Line) and the 50% Feb Retracement (trend beginning 1/6 - White Fib Lines).
Lets shift to the shorter time-frame bull trend (Yellow Fib Lines). The failed attempt (above) resulted in a sharp decline in prices, blowing right through the 23.60% level until stabilizing and returning to the same price level after experiencing a 38.20% retrace.
This is where we experience the "Double Top" everyone is(was?) so worried about. It is logical that we would see the DT here, there was a TON of resistance! We see the convergence of the Major Bear Resistance Trend Line, Large Trend 50% Fib Level, Yearly Fib Pivot, and previous Market High, all WITHIN A $400 DOLLAR RANGE.
After a good sized selloff, we tested the 23.60% LTFL and 50% STFL. "Bouncing" off the two, prices rose to test the 38.20% STFL. Failing this test resulted in a drop down to the 61.8% STFL where we hovered for a few days. Buyers unable to keep control, there was a sharp decline to the 78.6% STFL, followed by a strong bounce (partly fueled by the number of shorts being filled and overall downward pressure being lifted).
This weeks rally was met with significant pressure from the 200D Moving Average and the 50% STFL, which buyers failed to break through.
Currently (today), buyers are fighting to hold the 23.6% LTFL. Based on the above averages, this would be a drop from a Bear Trend Mid-Point.
a.) Avg drop of the 2 most recent Mid-Point drops is depicted by the (Red Box) as a 3 bar / -15.03% price decrease. Interestingly, this corresponds with the Long Tern Bull Market Support Line (White).
b.) Price tests the 61.8% STFL. Hovering here for ~3 bars with a max decrease of -10.43% (Orange Box), price could touch a short tern support level (Yellow Dotted Line). Potentially rebounding to a fight with the 50D, 200D MA, LT Trend Resistance and 38.2% STFL. This will be a great deal of pressure.
c.) Price tests the 61.8% STFL and holds (max drop 3 bars : -7.74% - (Purple Box)). This could be a possible Golden Retracement (?). A breakout through/above the 50% STFL, while unlikely, would reflect positively on price.