We’ve seen a nice movement upwards to $10.000 and a drop down after. Unfortunate, but we can’t ignore the indicators, can we? We did see bearish divergences earlier during the movements upwards. Now, it’s finished making the bearish divergences, as discussed. Scenario 1 from my earlier analysis happend.
What do we see? Strong bearish divergence on the daily on the RSI, MACD, Stoch and CCI. Also on the histo.
So, what are the scenario’s? - Scenario 1: We’ve seen the retracement and will move upwards from here. Doesn’t suit the 5-3-5 correction waves modus and doesn’t suit the strenght of the bearish divergences. - Scenario 2: We see some short term upwards movements to $9.400-9.500 and from there we’ll see a drop towards the $8.400/$8.600. There’s the fibonacci level (0.382) as well and there’s also the 1.618 fib level from this drop down. - Scenario 3: We will retrace all the way down towards $7.200 zone, where the support of this triangle is lying, which is pretty possible, combining with EW theory.
Concluding. I’m hanging to scenario 2, I don’t see any clear bullish signals. Combined with the G20 meeting the end of June, it’s pretty much likely that we’ll breakout from that event (check the timeframe).
In the bubble patterns phase, another higher low is possible, making it the depression phase.
Strategy: best to be in USDT and check frequently. Bullmarket will come after this triangle.
Scenario 2 would make sense, that could end up to make a h&s pattern. We've just completed the head and started the right shoulder at 9000. Anyway that's my take on what I see.
wxman99
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Hopefully that is it and E wave is done...then up !!!
walid.mejdoub
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retracement til 3000$
denis.vasichkin
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@walid.mejdoub, retracement to 5k and below only after btc touch (or even break) 11.7k