XanderLoon

The Bitcoin Bottom

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
No I don't know where the bottom is but....that trendline tho (fun fact, same exact angle from 2015)

Bids are in... (they may never get filled, which is v cool, will be focusing on alts in that case)

Primarily the green line (3457.13)

If we drop further I will be buying down to 25XX level. The stop loss pictured here is not automatic.

As a Bitcoiner my risk tolerance for this trade is abnormal. Willing to try and long the bottom.

RR for shorting here is terrible, but I could see this going lower than my primary bid. Stops will be tightened tf up if/when we pump, a drop back to these levels or lower is not out of the question.

RIZKY(er) trade, but end result can't be worse than those hedge fund managers about to close shop.

[[Safer trade is shorting the terrible looking stock market. Yikes there about to experience some Bitcoin top buying hodler emotions over the next few months.]]

GL, have fun, stay safe.
Comment: Cloza luuk

Comment: LITERALLY $20 AWAY FROM GETTING FILLED OK NOT V COOL lmao

Comment: Forgive me father for I have sinned


Not totally convinced this is the end of the pain...bear bias, but I we should see some strong relief soon

the trendline shall not be disrespected
Comment: My passive bids that were missed by $20 will be moved to 2421.19 (to avoid the $20 miss bid curse)
Comment: It's also possible we climb up to 5.2, get rejected initially, break past it, hit 6k, get rejected from that, range a bit and then finally capitulate next year.

I am being conservative in believing the price wont surpass 5.2

all of this line of thinking is invalidated if we reclaim 6k without dropping any further than the local bottom as of today, but that probably won't be clear for weeks
Comment: Still targeting retest of 5.2 regardless of whether or not we hit the bottom already
Comment: Revision, lowest bottom that makes sense to me (also now think have a good chance of retesting 6k, still going to play is safe)

Comment: Combined fractals for clarity, I slightly favor my first prediction (black bars) already based off this weak bounce...also this supports the lower volatility narrative

Comment: Long BTC at 3696 targeting 5200, +41%
Comment: BTC no lookie so good honestly, we may capitulate before any relief stronger than 4400 level...stop loss at break even might move it up higher soon though
Comment: Nah stop loss slightly below local bottom, manual, im watching this...gunna see if we can get a double (local) bottom or tap the liquidity pool to get higher. Unless were about to capitulate still want my 5200 retest.
Comment: We could be 2 weeks out from capitulation event between 3.2-2.8. Watching next 2 weeks carefully, if my trendline is disrespected im out, otherwise im looking for a bounce that surpasses 4400-4500 and if not then capitulation could be round the corner :)
Comment: The trendline allows for a drop to 2800 on the monthly chart. Any lower trendline is invalid
Comment: Holding this drop will update what i think depending on how we react to the trendline
Comment: Capitulation zones...we should bounce hard off the MA200 (if we dont yikes)

2900ish looks like the best candidate for a bottom

Comment: Bids in for 2820
Comment: Out of the 3696 trade btw, again bottom catching is mostly for fun, i know safer to just wait for reversal
Comment: Half bids moved to 2720
Comment: Dump on the horizon

Until 6k is firmly reclaimed lower lows remain a viable possibility

but a strong bounce from this region would be good sign for bulls

lowest MA is the 230 day, a close lower than that and sub 1k is likely...Bitcoin will survive that, so BTC's survival is not a good reason to blindly hodl imo