Both MACD and RSI show bullish divergence on 2-hour and 4-hour chart. The bullish divergence is actually a sign that whales are accumulating.
I think 7k6 is close to the bottom of this cycle. Whales may release good news in the following weeks and try to pump the price higher to sell.
There might be another one or two dips to 7k2-7k6 but I think the bottom is not very far away.
Comment
⋅
I have sold and closed all my long positions because this pump doesn't look like a start of reversal imo. I would rather take profits and wait for the tomorrow's news coming out before making a further move. I do not trade high uncertainty.
You can trade at your own risk.
Comment
⋅
Just saw the news. Obviously big boys knew it was coming.
Comment
⋅
The local bottom 7200 may lead us to the next stop 8800; and then there might be a pullback before it gets pump again and break 9000.
Now we are in a consolidation phase after the price breaks 8000 major resistance and it also found support above 8000 when shaken up and down. This is a bullish sign.
Trade closed: stop reached
⋅
Well. Seems something bad happened. My stop-loss at 8399 was hit and now I am out.
Comment
⋅
Let's see if this is the whales' plan:
By the way, someone is moving 4500 BTC around. Rumor says the receipt is an exchange.
The movement of BTC right now looks very bearish to me. This kind of movement is usually created when whales are dumping their bags. I hope I am wrong.
Comment
⋅
Ignore my last comment. Although whales are selling, it seems the buying interest from retail buyers is still very high. I think they may pump it one more time to 8700-8800
Comment
⋅
I have sold and closed my long at 8620. I dont think there's much room above.
Comment
⋅
Still looks very bearish. The pumps are weak and they formed many needles (long upper shadow) on 5-min chart. More like luring people to buy more. I have opened a small short position at 8600. I will short more if they pump it higher.
Comment
⋅
By the way there is still a chance they will pump it to 8800 like what they did on 3/16. That's why I didn't open full short position at 8600.
Comment
⋅
Just opened more shorts between 8800-9000. I have moved my stop-loss to 9301. I don't think this is a reversal. More like a bigger bull trap.
Comment
⋅
Just want to share with you something interesting I read on Weibo:
Do you think the bull market is back? Just ask yourself one question, "Are you and your friends buying like crazy? Or you are just waiting for the next pump so you can sell and break even?"
Food for thought.
Comment
⋅
Bulls are stronger than I thought. There might be another wave up to 9300. Now it forms a rising wedge. We may see a retracement to 8300-8500 after it breaks it. I am still holding my shorts, and will probably add more if it really goes higher than 9300.
Comment
⋅
Comment
⋅
I would not open any long position at the moment. It could fall now or after another wave up. No body knows.
Comment
⋅
We just broke the rising wedge and start falling. You can see some giant buy walls on the order book rn for luring people buying the dip. And my shorts start bringing me some nice profits.
Comment
⋅
I have closed all my short positions around 8850. The retracement is not as deep as I thought. And here's the new short-term trading plan.
It's all whales playing... I mean, even professional traders who I know and traded for years are out since the big dumps and back to forex. Its inorganic moves like the last pump breaks ta elliot wave all together. Had to use the legacy fib trend extension to find my targets... it's bad. Can dump any time when they want before the same cartel releases all the same news on different crypto newswebsites 15 minutes later to "rationalize" whaleplay and tell you "why" this and that.
Look at alt market, very low float. Can easily pump any alt with 20% with just small bag of btc. Markets are dying, great play for whales. Easy to gain 10% and easy to lose 30% faster.
Did you notice the bots are not buying (and selling) anymore each few seconds since the dump? The bot owners are probably underwater or at big loss, waiting to sell to breakeven and get the heck out.
The bots were extremely apparent since 6k to 11.8 and 9.2k to 11.7k, but since dump, nowhere to be seen.
When there is pump or dump, exchanges are unable to fill your order (website offline, api errors, huge lag, logged out), only gdax worked. So tight stop loss and very tiny spot buys for scalps you can do there. But waiting for the big dump and regulations is better to get >80% fiat back in.
Ask yourself: How can no regulations, pump and dumps, scams, etc. be a good thing? Joe smoe, investors and big money WANT regulations, to limit third party counter risk. People say that no regulations is a good thing and say that's why price goes up. Yes, price goes up, good thing for manipulators, they can run show longer now before getting caught. The masses ain't buying, you can easily see it, which means price comes down sooner or later. People need money in this sytem, so in the end bagholders gonna sell. And if there ain't buyers for certain price, it will go down, no problem, I have patience.
So, it's scalping and certainly not hodling/investing and above all, not a store of value.
Good to see you post about psychology as well, that's what most traders don't take in to consideration or don't understand.
Callmepope
⋅
@cryptogast33, these are great insights. Thank you for the nice write up! Lacking regulation allows big players to screw us over and over in this market. I was hoping we could see some regulations coming from g20 but there was none. Which makes me feel more certain that the bull market won't come back anytime soon.
Benetton
⋅
Retracement seems plausible. Oversold RSI on 1h. As we are in a bullish setup, the question ist how far it will retrace. I could picture the 8780-8670ish level, as it acted as resistance before --> now probably as support.
@Benetton, right. I am expecting a larger retracement though. Maybe to 8400.
Benetton
⋅
@Callmepope,
I would love to agree, but given the bullish environment I don't think this target will be met. I can be wrong of course - but just look at that retracement denial of that candle on the 30min right now. Everyone wants to buy right now - that again shows, that many people buy out of FOMO without actually considering technical indicators and formations.
Benetton
⋅
@Benetton,
In fact, my reliance on technicals often made me not enter a trade, when everyone else was entering in e.g. complete overbought conditions. My stubbornness already devoured a lot of potential profits for me, given these markets just are irrational and very hard to predict.
Benetton
⋅
@Benetton,
Btw would really appreciate upvotes, so I can participate in the chatroom - thanks and happy trading :)
Benetton
⋅
What do you think? Inverse H&S on the 15min might be forming.
Look at alt market, very low float. Can easily pump any alt with 20% with just small bag of btc. Markets are dying, great play for whales. Easy to gain 10% and easy to lose 30% faster.
Did you notice the bots are not buying (and selling) anymore each few seconds since the dump? The bot owners are probably underwater or at big loss, waiting to sell to breakeven and get the heck out.
The bots were extremely apparent since 6k to 11.8 and 9.2k to 11.7k, but since dump, nowhere to be seen.
When there is pump or dump, exchanges are unable to fill your order (website offline, api errors, huge lag, logged out), only gdax worked. So tight stop loss and very tiny spot buys for scalps you can do there. But waiting for the big dump and regulations is better to get >80% fiat back in.
Ask yourself: How can no regulations, pump and dumps, scams, etc. be a good thing? Joe smoe, investors and big money WANT regulations, to limit third party counter risk. People say that no regulations is a good thing and say that's why price goes up. Yes, price goes up, good thing for manipulators, they can run show longer now before getting caught. The masses ain't buying, you can easily see it, which means price comes down sooner or later. People need money in this sytem, so in the end bagholders gonna sell. And if there ain't buyers for certain price, it will go down, no problem, I have patience.
So, it's scalping and certainly not hodling/investing and above all, not a store of value.
Good to see you post about psychology as well, that's what most traders don't take in to consideration or don't understand.