goldbug1

BTC - Global Equities Meltdown and Why this is Good for Bitcoin

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Talk about market equity evaporating before us. Over 5 Trillion dollars has been erased form the markets since February 1st with around 2.5 Trillion being erased in the USA alone. Not only this, 24 billion has flowed out of the ETF market alone. The fear on the street is "It Ain't over Yet!", and yet the fake news that is constantly thrown across crypto sites is that many nations are concerned about bitcoin             and its affect in the financial markets and are looking for tougher regulations. These so call analysts and news writers live in a house with now windows! The furthest thing on the minds of Countries right now is Bitcoin' period! We are in the midst of rising rates, rising inflation , an equity meltdown, a potential derivatives market collapse, and you really think that the central banks of the world are worried about the 400 billion dollar market? This could be no more evident in the lack of knowledge among several senators, during the Senate Banking Hearing with the CFTC and the SEC, of the space in general. They lack knowledge because it is the furthest thing from their minds with a budget bill needing passed, healthcare, immigration, terrorism, and to cap it off a derivatives meltdown on their plate. The crypto market is simply a side venue which several showed up for because they had to, or like Sen Warren, to grandstand for CNN'. There were several empty seats!

With carnage in the markets you would think that gold' would be bullish . Quite the opposite, it is down with equities. Now much of this is simply institutions that use gold             for a hedge are now selling to cover their margin calls. However with all the wreckage in the markets smaller investors as well as larger investors are going to look for not only a safe haven, but for growth that can offset their losses, and a hedge vs inflation . So what will they buy now?

Bonds
Your kidding right?

Stocks
There is simply not a lot of VALUE in the stock market regardless of what you may hear. Simply you are paying a premium for growth like NVDA             with a 55PE or Amazon at 219.

Gold
Sure you will see a rise in gold             prices, but the world economy is still growing, and it is already trading at the top of its range. Now gold             is an inflationary hedge, but many already own gold             , so how much more can flow into this market? Most hold "digital gold" and a little physical.

Cryptos
I think money starts flowing into the crypto markets especially after the Senate Hearing this past Tuesday. Money managers are looking for growth right now and with a 400 billion dollar market cap, and the future being bright for block chain, there is plenty of room for growth here. Retail investors that are pulling their money out of the market as a whole, are concerned about inflation which reduces their purchasing power, and another round of QE , to settle the markets, would be a boost for deflationary currencies such as Bitcoin'. Who wants fiat deterioration?

Yesterday we posted that we were looking for a pullback from the 8398 level to around 7500 where we would look to buy. Well we did not quite get there and are trading around the 8275 level. So do I buy here? As we may still pull back and are trading close to the top of the channel, and the 8400 level, the risk to reward tells me to be patient. I do not mind buying a breakout which is 125-150 pts away, when there is an opportunity to buy 775pts lower at the 7550 level. I'll be patient here.

Could continued selling pressure in the equities markets cause another pullback? Sure but unlike the gold             derivatives market which is very deep, any selling in the crypto space has likely been done to cover margins in the market.

Bottom Line: As the dust starts to settle the best opportunity for growth is in the crypto space right now. Your buying off the highs, near the lows, in a young market that has the potential to be a disruptor. Is this a risky market? Sure it is, but so is the derivatives market as we have seen this week.
Comment: Note the selloff in Bitcoin coincided just prior and during the meltdown.
Comment: Gold and SVXY
Comment: We have broken through the upper channel trend line and are simply testing it here. Closing above this level on the daily would be a good bullish signal. I have added breakout or breakdown levels which would signal either a bearish continuation or a bullish reversal. Very simple chart.
Comment: On a shorter term basis we have broken through the 0.382 retracement of the most current correction from 13k. As long as we hold above the 7550 level (even if we get a very short spike to the 7250 level which is the 0.618 retracement of the overall short term bullish move) we should get a run at the 9850 level. I'm not adding here but this could set up nicely for a shorter term trade. A break of the 9850 level increases the probability that we are in the final 5th wave of the long term cycle. A break of the 14598 level confirms this and we get at least one more run at 20k.
During my one year of active crypto trading I've seen many alts go bottom then take months to recover. Perhaps this is what is happening to btc now, only 5x slower.
+1 Reply
@cup, you've not seen what I've seen
Reply
Short Term we saw cryptocurrencies spiking, however midday on Friday, we witnessed some recovery in the equities and chances are next week we'll see signs of a reversal. Now, if we see slightest indications of a reversal next week, even die hard crypto believers like me will cash out some crypto to invest in equities at a massive discount. Now you tell me how that is a good thing and not a terrible thing for crypto? I have listened to a few podcasts and youtube videos who think the same but you're the first person I'm hearing from @goldbug1 that this is going to be good for crypto. Hey, it was good for crypto like we saw on Friday but it is going to be good for crypto? Not a chance.
Reply
clawsai fakhan
@fakhan, My concern would be that fiat is the walking dead. How do we know equities have reached bottom? :)
+1 Reply
@fakhan,

Curious to know, you find that you can make more in equities than crypto?
Reply
@fakhan, I know plenty of registered investment advisors are shorting the stock market and telling their client's to migrated into crypto...Gold, Bonds and stock indexes are are due for a deeper correction...it could go up next week but it is a bull trap for super large whales to slowly get out of the game and leave dumb money holding those bags
Reply
xastunts CashFlowCrypto
@CashFlowCrypto, wouldn't that be a bearish trap rather than a bull ?
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Coldbugg, Wain r u going to lern to spale?
Reply
We broke through that trendline before. What is the difference this time? I am short.
+1 Reply
goldbug1 venturetrade
@venturetrade, I mentioned that, and the last breakout happened right before the equities melt down which I explained in the article. I did not imply we are going up we are simply in no man's land. could go either way.
+8 Reply
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