I want to start by saying that I don't know when BTCUSD will turn bull, what I've written here is the analysis and the targets I obtain with the information I have.
Daily Chart (left)
We clearly got rejected twice around ~$6800 (double tops), which coincides with our previous bottoms zone, so it appears that our previous support is now resistance.
RSI, Stoch RSI and MACD, they all seem to be pointing down. The Stoch RSI is also in the overbought zone, so we could expect this current dip to continue a little longer before price stabilizes. It's also worth pointing out the bearish divergence on the RSI, which lead to this dump.
Weekly Chart (right)
The first thing we notice here is the volume, or rather, its steady decline for the past several months. This is in fact, the most important piece of information to keep an eye on, because we'll know if we bounced not when we reach a certain price, but when the volume says it is.
On the TD Sequential indicator we are seeing a red 9, as I mentioned I expected on previous charts. A red 9 is a very strong buy signal, but remember that this candle is a week long. A very cautious trader would wait until a green 1 is formed, but this won't be near the bottom.
Stoch RSI is in the oversold zone, and while it's starting to curve up, I expect it to remain oversold for at least one more week (one candle), so it's not an immediate buy signal, but it's probably a good sign of a greener near future.
Target
As I've mentioned before, bounce zone target between $5000 and $5500, which I estimate using past targets and probable trend lines and their relationship to indicators values. Since bottom usually come with extreme volatility, I wouldn't be surprised if we see long wicks that could reach down to $4600, perhaps.
The Hell Case
While I don't expect this to occur, as I believe buyers will step in way before we reach this zone, there's still a little chance things are even worse than we would like them to be. In this case my targets fall into the $3000 zone. But let's hope we don't ever get to see this happening.
That's all I have for now.
I wish you all good fortune in your trading!
Cheers!
Daily Chart (left)
We clearly got rejected twice around ~$6800 (double tops), which coincides with our previous bottoms zone, so it appears that our previous support is now resistance.
RSI, Stoch RSI and MACD, they all seem to be pointing down. The Stoch RSI is also in the overbought zone, so we could expect this current dip to continue a little longer before price stabilizes. It's also worth pointing out the bearish divergence on the RSI, which lead to this dump.
Weekly Chart (right)
The first thing we notice here is the volume, or rather, its steady decline for the past several months. This is in fact, the most important piece of information to keep an eye on, because we'll know if we bounced not when we reach a certain price, but when the volume says it is.
On the TD Sequential indicator we are seeing a red 9, as I mentioned I expected on previous charts. A red 9 is a very strong buy signal, but remember that this candle is a week long. A very cautious trader would wait until a green 1 is formed, but this won't be near the bottom.
Stoch RSI is in the oversold zone, and while it's starting to curve up, I expect it to remain oversold for at least one more week (one candle), so it's not an immediate buy signal, but it's probably a good sign of a greener near future.
Target
As I've mentioned before, bounce zone target between $5000 and $5500, which I estimate using past targets and probable trend lines and their relationship to indicators values. Since bottom usually come with extreme volatility, I wouldn't be surprised if we see long wicks that could reach down to $4600, perhaps.
The Hell Case
While I don't expect this to occur, as I believe buyers will step in way before we reach this zone, there's still a little chance things are even worse than we would like them to be. In this case my targets fall into the $3000 zone. But let's hope we don't ever get to see this happening.
That's all I have for now.
I wish you all good fortune in your trading!
Cheers!
