After last weeks drop we are now trading inside the demand zone from the recent run up. The range high and low are exactly the same, a daily close above or below range should reveal the short term direction.
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Lets zoom in on some previous PA, visible here is that when bitcoin closes above a range on a daily and holds above it on the next daily candles it will most likely continue in that direction. Also look for a possible retest (wick inside the range but a close above the range high/low)
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This leaves us with two possible scenarios for a swing trade. Close above the top or bottom, trigger for entry would be the first daily close. With a preferred entry at the retest of the top/bottom side of the range.
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Targets up are: T1 retest of W and wick of last range at ca. 6400 T2 supply zone at 7000 T3 breakaway cme gap and pob at 7900
Targets downside are: T1 Demand zone at ca. 4000 T2 '19 low at 3100
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On the 4h wee see the different zones inside the range. We have lot of buy wicks in the 5150 area and lots of sell wicks above the 5600 area.
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We are also resting on the 200 ma/ema. A close on the weekly above would be a point in the bulls court, close below vice versa.
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Another possibility is a retrace to 6400 without a retoutch of the topside of range. If the 4h-Daily candle closes below that, that could be seen as a bearish pullback.
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Could look something like this
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Idea worked out for the first part, double top in that region. But after that it flipped the supply zone to support, visible by wicks inside and close above.
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Rejection at the yearly open
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1h close above the demand zone and I'm going long
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Exact rejection in the supply zone of the idea. Now resting on the 9ema D if that breaks expect more downside.
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Saw I never finally updated this, theory was right. There were two daily retests of the range both front run by a small margin but lets blame that on arbitrage over exchanges.