What a chaotic few weeks! Let's dive into some fractals, TA, and short term expectations and probabilities!
From recent movement many began assuming that bull market has resumed however resent 'correction' proved those wrong.
What would be a resistance that we would need to break to resume this 'bull - run' ?
$5,400 - Is the resistance to break short term in order for this 'bull - run' to resume. Short term in current scenario means weeks and we would be looking at potential breakout above $6,000 later this month if that was to happen.
In a scenario where we don't break the resistance, a great place to look at would be fractals which would indicate first drop towards $4,000 - $4,200 trend line which is acting as strong support at this time. In an event we should fail to hold those levels, liquidity grab zone would be located below $2,000 region. Now that does necessarily means that we would drop down to those levels for accumulation, but we may see a daily or weekly candle getting close to that area before bouncing right back up. Of course in that scenario the bull cycle will also be delayed until late Q4 to early Q1 2020.
Before everyone gets emotional, I would like to point out that fractals don't always work in crypto and if we look at a resistance trend line , you will notice that we have broken it with ease which is a bullish sign overall, however in order manage risk, we must be prepared for either outcomes equally and minimize our exposure in an event we see sudden flash dump.
There is a good chance that our December low will hold, which would mean that bottom was found however again, we would need to see a strong push up in coming weeks in order to avoid negative outcome.
If we manage to break through resistance, overall pattern does put us at $7,500 - $8,500 / BTC later this month to early / mid May.
This is not financial advice, but merely just a person point of view on current crypto market.
As usual absolutely nothing to learn here, typical each way bet and overall very dangerous TA. If everyone followed your advice the Whale traders would own everything.
supremetrejdr
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@LeoKim, Agree. He's betting on ridiculous numbers. BTC is not gonna break 6000 this easily as it's been sitting on this support for 11 months. Just like it will be very hard to break $ 3000 area, although I'm convinced it will but it's not gonna fall this much because of the high demand.
Matt3Franc3
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1900$.
Louis202
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You change Charts more often than I take shits. How do you even have money left? let me guess. Paid groups?
zigger
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@Louis202, GOOD ONE i am 10000 % backing you up on this one
ruif3rro
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@Louis202, if you don't change to keep up with the markets you're the one losing money. And this isn't Twitter buddy.
I think the CME expiration date has a major impact on BTC's trend transition.
TradingShot
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At the moment its neither of the two, although 8,000 may be target towards the end of 2019. Right now the weekly MA50 rejected the price and if the comparison with the 2015 cycle is anything to go by, I am expecting a test of the MA200. The bull market is just around the corner!
BigBuxTrading
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A prediction in crypto is pretty much just a guess of its outcome within a particular timeframe, based on your own interpretation of past data right?...but when you then put your money down, it becomes a bet. The major difference between a bet in crypto and a bet at the casino is the life of its timeframe (it’s validity)... I think that the game of Craps is the closest in similarity to the crypto game as you can put your money up and stay in the game as you layer and press your bets, but eventually the shooter craps out (like a whale’s unpredictable action) and you start all over with your new/next prediction... either getting stopped out or taking profit... You may get lucky and get in just before a huge move and hit a huge win (like throwing down a 30:1 long shot bet on “snake-eyes” or “box-cars” (2 and 12 respectively) then bail (5 min scalping timeframe) or you may stay in while the point is made, and you ride out a series of throws from a hot shooter for a on going return on your bets out on the table (1 hour timeframes)... or maybe you’re dollar cost averaging your bets with a larger bankroll all day from shooter to shooter (daily/weekly timeframes)...
It’s all up to your interpretation of that current action and what YOU think it will do next! Every roll (trade) is it’s own, individual, random event because probability/statistics is math with one answer! The wildcard in crypto is that the outcome can actually be altered by the actions of a few players (whales with loaded dice) that can, at will, unpredictably change the outcome - this is why crypto is a bet!
If you think you can predict this crypto market, you’re fooling yourselves... cycles and unpredictable equalizers will catch up to you eventually! It’s a zero sum game.... Have fun explaining all of your “reasons” and justifications for outcomes - until the Loaded dice are removed from the game, your soothsaying means zero, nothing, nada... and is simply a guess - and just a bet if you put some money down on that guess!
Good luck with your bets.... momma needs a new pair of shoes!!!! :))