BTC did a major turn overnight (or day for some people). Price collapsed suddenly for the unsuspecting. But for those who were watching ATRs, the warning signs were in plan sight.
Only on Friday, I was saying to a colleague (not on Tradingview),"Something ain't right. You gotta have bottle to hold on to a peak like that." (referring to the daily trend). The person said, "I'm holding on." No problem. I don't tell people what to do with their investments. So I'll find out on Monday or Tuesday if my mate bailed out before that >$10,000 slide. I was actually about $14,000 from the peak and I say that's a lot. But some can spin that all different ways.
Getting out of a good run is not an easy thing. You also need 'bottle' to be able to say "I'm at the top. Made enough. I'm out." Why is it so hard? It's the thing that's hardly spoken about but which is the most important in trading. What's that? It's called 'individual psychology.' That's about two main hidden enemies that bends minds. They're called 'greed' and 'hope'. Few self-respecting traders will admit to another person, that they were greedy before bailing out. After losses it's easier to hold hands up and say, "Jeez.. I was too greedy. I should have bailed out." Why is it so hard to spot the devious work of 'the enemies within' before bad stuff happens? Think about it and share your experiences if you want.
Of course, some who got this far are wondering if I'm going to do a prediction - which is what 90% of trading models are about. I've said so many times before, that in trend-following "There is no need to predict anything! Because 'you're allowing the market to take you to it's destination and the market tells you when you're out."
Some will see the ATR switch on the 1H chart. It's two things: a) indication of probability to get out, if 'in the money' b) time to consider shorting with a decent stop loss.
Where and for how long will the 1H trend survive? How would I know? I let the market tell me. It might end tonight. I don't care. But now is not really a great time to short. The key opportunity to bailout or short was around 05:00 GMT on 17th April 2021.
Those who are still in the in the money and hadn't set a stop-loss are scratching their heads, with self-talk such as, "Should I get out now. Nah.. It'll probably shoot to $75,000 next week." I call that guess work. I'm only showing the dilemma. If it goes to $75,000 next week, those folk will be punching the air. If it falls to $30,000 there will be a deafening silence from that lot.
Just to be 100% clear. I am totally happy for BTC to go to $100,000 or more. I don't care where it goes. I care where a suitable trend is going.
Some want to understand the probable 'fundamental under-pinnings' of the sudden price collapse. Well that's in the news: stuff about Turkey and India. But people who focus on that are missing far bigger probabilities. Note I didn't say 'predictions'.
Bitcoin is likely to come under 'attack' from many nations over the next few months for similar reasons cited by Turkey and India. It doesn't matter if those reasons make sense to you. What's important is, "Who has the power." Of course, what some will do is dismiss that Nations have the power to crush bitcoin - until it happens.
I've said before that BTC is heading into a similar situation before Gold was banned for a while (many moons ago - you may have reading to do). That usually brings out a bunch of folk saying, "Gold and bitcoin can never be banned!" Never? Never say never!
Bitcoin has become a conspicuous challenge to fiat currency. I'm sorry, I can't believe that Govts around the world are gonna allow that go grow and continue indefinitely. If you were Jay Powell, I don't think you'd like it. But I could be wrong.
As I always say, "What you don't know is more important."
Disclaimer:This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Comment
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This below is not information on which to make trading or investment decisions.
There is word on the block that both China and the US Treasury are looking to squeeze Bitcoin. This is at the stage of rumour at this time. However, it needs further investigation to verify what exactly is going on (or not).
I certainly don't expect 'country reps' to show their full hand.
The plunge on the 1H time frame of approx 14,000 is no joking matter. Sometimes these reactions are due to just market jitters based on rumour. At other times, it's about insiders to whom word has been leaked.
Just to repeat myself, do not rely on rumour and speculation. This is not reliable information at this stage for making investment decisions.
For me, I do not need sound information because the technical picture informs me sufficiently of a trend south developing. I'm holding for a short. My strike position is not defined or clear at this time. I don't give advice.
Buy the fear with extra cash accumulate over the next ten years with no leverage you will out perform 98 % of traders and avoid the likelihood of lost and anxiety. Keep a regular job gain wealth. Don’t expect to be a successful trader and quite your job unless you have money to play with and other money to generate passive income
brentp33
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Yes. Almost $50,000 up since this time last year. HODL waiting 5 years plus relax
AsquAre001
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You're so amazing What I really appreciate much is only about the individual psychology, which is greed and hope aspects Please sir I need more advice on that, if you can help me with that I would really appreciate it I've followed you on Twitter sir, please follow me and let's talk there I would really appreciate if you would help Thank you God bless
CFDStephenwood
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It was great to see your work
quiquerui
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Love your review! Unfortunately, I was greedy, and I've lost some money. So, lesson learned. Thanks for your analysis
Captain_Walker
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@quiquerui, It's tough. But it's how we learn. The market is our best teacher. S/he is unforgiving in the punishment. Lessons are a tricky one. Sometimes I know the lesson, but I still repeat the mistake. So I tend to focus on my patterns. I look for what patterns in my thinking lead me the wrong way.
Mattytwy
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I have traded into tether at least 3 times on this bull run which is so different than the 2017-18 shit show.... Not holding alt bags .... taking profit and protecting the stack... however I have buy orders staggered from 51.2K down to 43K.... maybe its just hopium but I want to hit that 21 EMA and then bounce.... even if it is just a dead cat ... anyways, I feel much more grounded this time round with small moments of FOMO. Its tough to get your psychological outlook 100% on point. Good luck