I can only say thank you for the numerous followers and friends I have made over the past few weeks. I much appreciate the alternate opinions and positive feedback. But what happened today? Nothing more that exactly what we predicted to happen. We hit the $4200 target price. Remember that target I kept warning about? Did I know or anyone else know when it was going to happen? NO but I told you to be prepared! Am I of the firm belief a broader pullback is still highly "probable". YES! nothing has changed in my mind. Trades sometimes head south, but unlike many I had a plan and a strategy which included an exit point. So in the end, on a $2000 BTC' short trade i lost $2.50. Yes a whopping Two dollars and fifty cents.
Reality has set in for many that used my TA in the wrong way. Yes you shorted when I did, but I mentioned I was using a small portion of my portfolio, only shorting 1/3 of the total position I planned on shorting and explained "we did not reach our $4200 target yet and $4400 and $4600 are still in play". Many ignored this and went all in, some on margin which I said is a recipe for disaster, but it was ignored. When we hit $3450 I said "time to take some off the table". Many of you ignored this and a few were even going more short. I stated "this is not the place to short but to take some off the table". But few listened. The recovery happen as expected, and I spotted a channel setup that I have traded successfully for many years. This was a specific trade. When the trend changed as they often do, I cut my losses and exited quickly for a minimal loss, hardly a scratch. But seriously even if you shorted @ the $3850 level, you had time to cover with only a 5% loss. How did you lose it all? GAMBLING WITH MONEY YOU COULD NOT AFFORD TO LOSE!
Trading takes mental and financial discipline. It's NOT buy and sell points. The irony is I mentioned that in the same article! It's mental and financial discipline that I have mentioned over and over.
For the perma Bulls - Markets go up and down. Did you predict the pullback from $4900 to $3000? No you went and hid only to emerge when you felt it was safe to show you head again. Yes I see the "member for 5 days", and out of the blue posting perma bull@#$%. The same $12,000 targets again, yet couldn't bear the heat when it fell to $3000 so you changed your account! You'll be changing again! Soon!
Bottom line
I have no crystal ball on how the market gets to the levels I mentioned, I have no crystal ball on where it's going or the time it takes to get there. I mentioned do not swing for the fences games are won with base hits. It wasn't the game plan that was wrong, it's how you implemented it. This is the reason I said take baby steps and get your feet wet first before trading. Tonight is the night your looking at your account and THE TRUTH REALLY HURTS! Had you followed the plan the losses would be minimal. But you couldn't throw away those pocket aces. Pick yourself up and dust yourself off, tomorrow is a new day.
I did 2 months of research on BTC and other coins prior to entering this market in late August. I believe fully that 10k - 25k - 50k for BTC' is in the cards! The charts say it can happen. Whether you buy at $4000 or $3000 does it matter? did it matter to those that bought at $1200 a couple years ago? Well only those that sold at $240. You must not miss the forest for the trees. If you want easy money, try the lottery. If you want to make money in the market, you must get your head straight, figure out your finances and most importantly KNOW YOUR PLACE AT THE TABLE. Long term should be 70% of your account. Again long term should be 70% of your account! Believe me I learned the hardway too, trading options. I hope you have too. Bulls make money Bears make money PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED! And yes the blackened grouper sandwich went great with an ice cold beer. or 7.
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If you were not thinking a market pullback is inevitable or that TA works. Please read the ETH a path less traveled article. Both ETH and BTC hit their target points in the same day, and both failed at those points on the same day.
I have 20 years in equities and forex. Survived dot-com boom and bust, the great recession, 2010 flash crash, and who knows what else to come. Corrections will happen. Goldbug, your perspective and talent are impressive (as is the intelligent conversation it inspires; my many thanks to this healthy community). We must continuously adapt; be like the water, not the rock.
P.S., for those of you who are "certain" -- get smart, don't get lucky... if you aren't humble now, don't worry -- you'll get humble soon enough.
In the meantime, good trading, many riches to you all. And keep up the good work!
goldbug1
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@rxg5150, Thank you sir! have a blessed trading day!
mk_trader
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About China situation. Is it probable that there are some whales wating to go out of the story? I don't see is as probable, bevause the will just relocate their bussiness of coins. China would have to ban Internet alltogether to make them stop trading. But, if there are some whales wanting to sell, they sure want to sell at higher price. In this scenario, we will have peeks till 30th and dip afterwards. What do you say? How probable is this? Are latest patterns, "hooks" or "slow stares" result of that? Price going up, but RSI not showing much of strength. Please comment.
@mk_trader, I agree here and think 30th is a danger zone.
mk_trader
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@danielpugh, well, many have said that this will be "no event", I tend to agree, but we will se hoe market will react.
Noon3knows
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@mk_trader, hey @mk_trader, I'm from China and want to let you know by now the policies are extremely undefined since the Chinese government might introduce a government-directed exchange company so in this way the government could have a strong control on crypto currencies. BTW there most of the Chinese companies are seeking to transfer their companies to foreign countries that chinese government has no control of, also peer 2 peer transactions is popular here in China so what I am trying to say is that besides of the policies, the Chinese market won't have huge impact on Bitcoin price(these days the price of bitcoin in China is closely following foreign markets like bitfinex) , just make sure you have reliable source of information about the polices in China. Sorry for my bad English and hope you can understand haha :)
danielpugh
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@Noon3knows, yes but fud is a powerful weapon. Segwit was never going to be a big thing as already agreed, but on 1st August there was a dip...
We've had a nice peak with 5 waves up that's due a pullback at the same time
Noon3knows
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@danielpugh, Yeah, I would say that the pullback lead by China is actually a nice correction of the market, the bubble was going too crazy. I think the downtrend could be still lasting a few weeks and then back to up trend again(now we are still in the wave from 09/08).
danielpugh
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@Noon3knows, in the tone vase video he goes on for a bit about bitcoin being overvalued via hype. Always nice to hear sensible views from true believers. I'd be happy/prefer a nice steady year on year growth as the technology and use grows organically - too many bad memories from 2014. Agree the bubble is well past due a pop, may go on/up for some time yet though - I think the tulip bubble lasted 2 years and that was based on tulip bulbs that cost as much as houses ... (Bitcoin is more a tech bubble like dot-com bubble i.e. useful like the internet, which is a powerful driving force...
P.S., for those of you who are "certain" -- get smart, don't get lucky... if you aren't humble now, don't worry -- you'll get humble soon enough.
In the meantime, good trading, many riches to you all. And keep up the good work!