BTCUSD 4H: – Pullback to LPS Likely Before Continuation

Mar 5

Snapshot
Symbol: BTCUSD
Timeframe: 4H
Current Outlook: Bullish bias (medium-term) with short-term caution
Downtrend has clearly ended. Hidden demand + seller exhaustion seen, but local buyer exhaustion at resistance suggests one more dip to LPS (Last Point of Support) is probable before the real rally kicks in.

Detailed Analysis
End of the Big Downtrend
Massive volume spike (Hidden Demand) + clear Change of Behaviour (CHoCH) right into resistance.
The secondary test of the lows was extremely weak with negative extension (yellow arrow #1). Sellers could not even retest the actual low — classic sign of exhaustion.
Sellers Fully Exhausted
Another attempt to push lower failed with negative extension again. Price could not reach the previous low, then we immediately got a strong rally. Buyers stepped in aggressively once sellers ran out of steam.
Local Buyer Exhaustion at Resistance
We have now stopped right above the key resistance zone.
The rally looks exhausted locally — no strong continuation yet. This is the critical area where we decide the next leg.
Most Probable Scenario (My Bias)
One final drop to form LPS (Last Point of Support) at the demand zone
Lack of fresh buyers at current levels makes a clean breakout unlikely without this shakeout first.
→ Expect a liquidity grab lower → strong reversal higher.
Alternative Scenario (Less Probable)
If buyers are only temporarily exhausted and no sellers show up, we break and continue straight up.
I see this as lower probability right now — needs immediate strong bullish candles + volume to confirm.

Trading Idea
Primary Setup: Long on LPS

Entry: Buy on reversal signals (engulfing, pinbar, order block) at the LPS zone (previous resistance / demand area)
Stop Loss: Below the recent swing low / LPS

Aggressive Alternative:
If we see clear failure at resistance + strong bearish candle → quick short scalp to the LPS zone.

Invalidation:
Strong bullish breakout + close above resistance with volume → shift to immediate long (alternative scenario plays out).

This setup has very high probability because we have:

Confirmed CHoCH
Hidden demand at the bottom
Multiple negative extensions = seller exhaustion
Classic Wyckoff LPS forming
Chart should have:

Yellow arrow #1 on the weak secondary test
Highlighted LPS zone
Hidden demand volume spike
Resistance level + CHoCH mark

Mar 6

Note

Backup is slowly moving down but we'll have to see if enough sellers or lack of buyers to continue and to accelerate down. As of right now not enough buyers so we may see acceleration soon

Mar 11

Note

We found Supply at the $75k but not very aggressive for now.

We were capable of having a new rally into Resistance with lower demand and some supply tails. Depending on how much strength the Supply is coming in with we're going to have the swing down or we'd exhaust before touching the previous support.

My bias still Bearish for the moment

Mar 13

Note

We're seeing exhaustion of Buyers and sellers in the last few bars. We're also seeing hidden supply in the previous days showing weakness.

Bias still Bearish waiting for a EOM confirmation for a possible short