We're going to take a look at the previous cycle bottoms to previous all-time highs and the time it took from those two points. Our current cycle bottom was FTX collapsing in November, with them creating the cycle top back in 2021 for the notorious double top. The only other scenario in history where we've retested the cycle bottom levels was in the 2015 bear market, however, that came relatively quickly and we reversed quite strongly after that. No cycle is exactly alike, as that would be too easy, however, we can get a grip on the general timelines / where we are in the current cycle.
This cycle is a little bit different in the sense that in the past 3 cycles, we've had a 2-year bear market starting in the odd years, however, this time, we truly bottomed in November '22 across the board.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
2012 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 392 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs.
2015 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 658 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs.
2019 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 644 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs.
Where do we stand today?
Basing this idea completely on historical trends / 4-year cycles, we can conclude that the three cycles took 392, 658, and 644 days, respectively. Also something to note, volume has been decreasing on Bitcoin since the first cycle in terms of Bitcoin traded. This could easily be marked off as increase in price = less whole coins moving around.
Anyways, let's take the mean of these three numbers and apply it to our current cycle bottom found on August 1st of 2022.
392 + 658 + 644 = 1701 / 3 = 564.67 days on average from cycle bottom to previous ATH. That would mark us off at February 19th, 2024 reaching the previous ATH:
Let's say we want to take out the first cycle as an outlier, as 658 and 644 are fairly close to each other. Add those two up and we get 1,302. Divide that by 2 and we get 651.
We'd get a date around May 13th, 2024 which would be about a month after the halving. The halving is right around the corner and the only question is if we're going to see a buy the hype leading up to it and a sell the news, or a buy-train after the halving without a pump fake.
We've already seen the Litecoin halving on August 2nd, 2023 (earlier this month), and the next Bitcoin Halving is coming up in April of next year.
As always, please do your own research, this chart is intended for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
@ontherunsince1905, Looks like we're left-curving the halving, so everything that was predicted in this analysis is happening sooner than expected
ontherunsince1905
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Can you explain what you mean by left-curving the halving?
kyer
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@ontherunsince1905, Sure, previous cycles we've seen Bitcoin reach its all-time high price post halving, and in this case we've seen the ATH before the halving.
ontherunsince1905
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@kyer, Do you mean to suggest that the ATH in this cycle is behind us? Strong thesis, and I'd be keen to read your thoughts in a fresh post.
ob1stonks
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@ontherunsince1905 I would assume with the amount of institutional money coming into BTC along with a dwindling supply we should at least double the current ATH. ETF'S are being approved in Hong Kong and Japan among others. Barring we have escalation in the Middle East and WW3, we could potentially see BTC rise for multiple years. 250K is possible imo
OG_cRoW
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Excellent analysis. I can notice that the previous ATHs was retested respectively 5, 7 and 7 months post halving. So if the next halving will happen in late march, or in april, we can imagine Btc price at 69k between late October/November 2024. Another question: in the last Cycle we had a double top (april; november). And if we'll have a double bottom in this cycle (not probable in my opinion)? ATHs seems happens after 17/18 months after the halving, so we can expect the top of the next cycle in september/october 2025. 180k? 198k? 240k? I can see that 2017 top was +1590% of Nov 2013, and 2021 top + 251% (a lot inferior). And what if it is starting a 5th wave where april 2021 and november 2021 were wave 1 and wave 3? Thank you Kyer. You made me turn the calculator back on in my head :)
kyer
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@OG_cRoW, Great point on the previous ATHs being tested 5,7, and 7 months post halving, I guess I was a bit optimistic in my analysis haha. So another great point on the double top last cycle. I think we've already had / seen the double bottom, if not a triple bottom on some of the alt coins with the June 3AC crash, FTX collapse in November, and then the June crash this year, followed by this most recent August China property developer default crash. That's a quadruple bottom if you will. I can't give any price predictions just because i'd be pulling numbers out of the air, however, I can agree with you that the new top of the cycle would happen in Sept/Oct 2025, with Ethereum and alts topping out in December. If you wanna pick your brain more and turn on the calculator, I'd check out the Ethereum cycles from cycle bottom to previous ATH, it lags Bitcoin and takes an average of ~840 days. That's also something to think about.
Either way, happy to have turned on the calculator and made you think :) The halving is right around the corner and only time will tell !
OG_cRoW
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@kyer, Exactly. Altcoins delay, but not for all. For example many have reached the top 1 year after the btc halving. Stellar is one of them. Anyway thanks, these are really valuable analysis, metrics and fractals are a fundamental knowledge of technical analysis. Well done. This is my favorite way to try to predict the future ;)
mikroland
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Awesome article! I was going research this on my own because I wanted to know when the next ATH would be based on historical performance. Thank you Alan!