Simplified Look at Bitcoin Price Direction

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This chart if based on chart originally created by 4XForecaster. Sometimes I like to look at more complex charts and see how they can be simplified.

So, here is what I did to alter his chart:

1. Drew 4 red colored resistance lines. Three show where price downtrends were broken. The final downtrend from the high price is yet to be broken;

2. A price regression channel (yellow and pink). This basically bounds in price from a little before April of this year until present. The price trend has been up. By watching when the price gets near the top and bottom of the channel you can make buy and sell decisions. This is especially useful if you prefer to be long only. You can sell as price nears the top of the channel, and buy near the bottom of the channel;

3. A 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($653.44) in orange. This has proven a difficult level for price to rise above since about the middle of March of this year;

4. A descending triangle in black. You can see that both the descending line of the triangle and the horizontal bottom have provided good support and resistance as both have been tested several times.

A few other things of note:

1. The center line of the price regression channel is a good indicator of the strength of any price movement. The normal expectation is that the center line of the channel will act as support or resistance depending if the price is above (support) or below (resistance) the line. If the price rises above the center line but does not rise to the top of the channel, this can be seen as weak price momentum and open up the possibility that price will drop down through the center line. The opposite is true also - if price falls through the center line, and then reverses, that can indicate stronger price momentum.

2. Combination factors: If you observe the position of the final red line (far right) offering resistance, in combination with the fact that price failed after rising above the center line of the price channel , and that price bounced off the descending part of the triangle in combination, there is a good chance price will continue lower. How low? Well, at least to the $575 to $580 level based on the bottom of the price regression channel. If that doesn't hold, then expect the horizontal bottom of the triangle at $558.72 will be tested. If that fails, then price could run down to $360 or below based on Point and Figure charts (not shown here).

In conclusion:

When I look at charts, whether ones I create or ones that someone else creates, I will try to pick the simplest elements I can and look for patterns. Some people are excellent at seeing very complex patterns or creating complex mathematical models that are very good at predicting price movements. I prefer to look at patterns and price action to get an idea of price direction and targets instead.
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