BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1136 10 7
What I have generally been noticing on the price ticker on my phone is the lack of any big downtrends on the long term trends. For instance, the previous high we made this month happens to have made it all the way up a big chuck of the way. Not characteristic of what we had been in previously (blue box). So, for the moment it is a giant stability period. An equilibrium if you will; not too high (411) not too low (312).

On the frontier, quantitative easing ( QE             ) has ended which may or may not be a good thing for Bitcoin . We will see within the coming weeks and months how we react to that.

Sentiment wise it has actually been much more silent than usual. I use it as a gauge to determine the volume without looking at the charts. It had been more exciting than this earlier. However, things have been calming down since then. In any case, it has gotten a bit too quiet for my comfort. Yet, I just don’t care that much. Buy in, wait, & sell. Sounds like a plan to me.

Indicators

RSI – Classic RSI , telling me we have gotten just above the turbulent zone for now. I’d like to say it is showing a bullish divergence, but the price was much lower at the time of that low. So, it is inconclusive at the moment.
• ATR – It is looking semi promising to say the least. I have noticed how instead of going up when the price goes down that it now is going up when the price sort of goes up. What this means to mean is that we are in uncertain times. We have all the people who think there is going to be some news that will blast us off and others who think we will just follow the trend.
• PSAR – Has yet to change to a buy signal. Meaning there is a bit more left to this trend or else the price will just continue sideways and PSAR will switch. Either way there is nothing for sure saying we will go up.

Overall, I would say we continue to clip a little bit further down if we have any more push left on the sell side. There is a bit of wiggle room, and I would either like to see my other set of indicators start heading back up or bottom. So close to getter near zero. Lots of potential to the upside and not so much for the down.

Targets
Bull Target: $360
Bear: 318
Extreme Bull: 376
Bloody Bear: 303

On a side note, I find it funny that no one has used stability tag.
NightWish
2 years ago
And right after the yellow box of stability we can expect a nice box of christmas presents ;) But seriously, I still think the 276usd was reversal day and I'm seeying and feeling the same sentiment as in 2013 when we hit 65usd midterm. I think we will get into a nice uptrend, some bumps along the road, but higher lows since 276usd. Great graph btw!
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ItisCalvin NightWish
2 years ago
Santa is coming to buy Bitcoin and spread the Christmas joy to all!

Sentiment seems to be so-so right now. IDK since I haven't taken an in-depth look at it for quite some time. I should get back on Reddit and check.
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ChartArt
2 years ago
Great chart. This is similar to what I have in my head.

But I recently got a little more bearish with more information using other long-term indicators. For example I'm going to update my chart with historic MtGox price data:
Bitcoin soon attune to balloon again or prune to be marooned
+1 Reply
ItisCalvin ChartArt
2 years ago
That will be interesting to see what that has to say. I've been out of the market (charting wise) so long I have no idea what the long terms are saying.
I'll keep an eye out for that unless I start getting overly busy.
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ChartArt ItisCalvin
2 years ago
Here is my new version with MtGox price data and dates.

Bitcoin Winter 2014/2015 Outlook: Important price areas to watch



4h chart of this looks interesting:

snapshot
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ItisCalvin ChartArt
2 years ago
Hmmm, looks like we are in a trying zone right now. Now, what remains is what direction we will head. The end of QE will certainly have some long term effects on Bitcoin and economies as a whole. I wouldn't expect to see those ripple through anything yet.
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ATR? PSAR?

I just don't see how you can draw conclusions from these indicators...trend is down, and there is further down to explore, the whole move from the ATH is a huge correction, in the big scheme of things, mostly sideways movement (use semilog chart and look at the weekly over the daily).

There is little standing between 117usd and the current price.
If it doesn't bounce off 276 or 266, it'll hit lower lows.

snapshot

snapshot
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ItisCalvin IvanLabrie
2 years ago
The conclusions I have drawn are more independent from the indicators than you think.

Also, since this is a one day chart it is going to be shorter term. That is the assumption that I hope would be taken away from a 1D chart.

Furthermore, I have looked at longer term charts. Just have a look back on my old ones. I know what I am doing here. I am not really that much interested about Bitcoin in general since I am booked on that amount of time I have. I've done enough long term charts that I would be basically updating old charts again. No thanks.

To add to that, I haven't included many other indicators, notes, etc. that I use for my targets and my analysis. If I did it would be 1) cluttered as hell and 2) not something I am willing to share with all.
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IvanLabrie PRO ItisCalvin
2 years ago
Makes sense, but it's looking too bearish for me to not call a lower target now...I'm in cash already, since a while back, advised a lot of friends to do so, and they waited till recently. :/
I agree on the part about global economy, it's definitely going to affect the BTC price, but we'll also see some competition from Bitshares, and maybe Apple pay.
I'll watch from the sidelines, for now.
Have a nice day! :D
Reply
ItisCalvin
2 years ago
One week update: About a week later and the bull target has been hit. I may sell out here soon. Depends on if we continue to go down after this or continue to push to 365 and beyond.

Short term targets have been hit.

Now, what my other charts are saying is that, combined with other indicators, is that you should sell soon. Deflection is happening off the resistance zone. No targets ATM.
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