I know a lot of people rant and rave about the log scale. and how the long-term price trajectory of Bitcoin is still positive in terms of percentage movements on that scale. However, every single BTCUSD chart that I've looked at, shows a recent breakdown of the long-term uptrend on the log scale. Additionally, the breakdown has happened in the form of a bear flag, on very high volume, with expanding sell-side momentum, and price has even broken below the 200 EMA (in purple.) To make matters worse, BTC is currently trading below the 78.6% retrace, for the entire history of it's existence. This is extremely bearish for the medium-term outlook.
Here on the weekly log chart, it's pretty clear that major support is at $1163. I know I have been talking a lot about $3000, but in all reality, $3000 doesn't have a tremendous amount of support, especially when seen from the log scale. So, this chart clearly shows the extreme technical damage that has been done to Bitcoin.
If we look back through history, we can see that BTC made a high in April of 2013. That high was then surpassed into November of 2013, then price fell back down, eventually testing the April 2013 high as support (pink trendline) for an extended period of time, into October of 2015. Since then, BTC has made new all time highs, but it has never returned to test the November 2013 high (blue trendline) for support, the way it did for the April 2013 high. So, I think there is a technical likelihood, that we could be in the process of doing that at this very moment. In other words, BTC could be headed to test the $1163 level for support, and that may be where we finally find a floor in this bear market, should the November '13 high hold support the way the April '13 high did. That means that we could witness another 70% decline, before the crypto market finds a floor.
One thing worth noting, is that BTC has never broken down significantly below the 200 EMA on the weekly time-frame. We are just below it now. So, there is a slight likelihood that we could hold the 200 EMA here, and move higher, thereby producing a floor on the 200 EMA. However, I think that is very unlikely, but certainly worth noting.
Based on this chart, I think there is a high likelihood that we will visit the $1163 level, before the end of 2019.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Here on the weekly log chart, it's pretty clear that major support is at $1163. I know I have been talking a lot about $3000, but in all reality, $3000 doesn't have a tremendous amount of support, especially when seen from the log scale. So, this chart clearly shows the extreme technical damage that has been done to Bitcoin.
If we look back through history, we can see that BTC made a high in April of 2013. That high was then surpassed into November of 2013, then price fell back down, eventually testing the April 2013 high as support (pink trendline) for an extended period of time, into October of 2015. Since then, BTC has made new all time highs, but it has never returned to test the November 2013 high (blue trendline) for support, the way it did for the April 2013 high. So, I think there is a technical likelihood, that we could be in the process of doing that at this very moment. In other words, BTC could be headed to test the $1163 level for support, and that may be where we finally find a floor in this bear market, should the November '13 high hold support the way the April '13 high did. That means that we could witness another 70% decline, before the crypto market finds a floor.
One thing worth noting, is that BTC has never broken down significantly below the 200 EMA on the weekly time-frame. We are just below it now. So, there is a slight likelihood that we could hold the 200 EMA here, and move higher, thereby producing a floor on the 200 EMA. However, I think that is very unlikely, but certainly worth noting.
Based on this chart, I think there is a high likelihood that we will visit the $1163 level, before the end of 2019.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-