I know a lot of people rant and rave about the log scale. and how the long-term price trajectory of Bitcoin is still positive in terms of percentage movements on that scale. However, every single BTCUSD chart that I've looked at, shows a recent breakdown of the long-term uptrend on the log scale. Additionally, the breakdown has happened in the form of a bear flag, on very high volume, with expanding sell-side momentum, and price has even broken below the 200 EMA (in purple.) To make matters worse, BTC is currently trading below the 78.6% retrace, for the entire history of it's existence. This is extremely bearish for the medium-term outlook.
Here on the weekly log chart, it's pretty clear that major support is at $1163. I know I have been talking a lot about $3000, but in all reality, $3000 doesn't have a tremendous amount of support, especially when seen from the log scale. So, this chart clearly shows the extreme technical damage that has been done to Bitcoin.
If we look back through history, we can see that BTC made a high in April of 2013. That high was then surpassed into November of 2013, then price fell back down, eventually testing the April 2013 high as support (pink trendline) for an extended period of time, into October of 2015. Since then, BTC has made new all time highs, but it has never returned to test the November 2013 high (blue trendline) for support, the way it did for the April 2013 high. So, I think there is a technical likelihood, that we could be in the process of doing that at this very moment. In other words, BTC could be headed to test the $1163 level for support, and that may be where we finally find a floor in this bear market, should the November '13 high hold support the way the April '13 high did. That means that we could witness another 70% decline, before the crypto market finds a floor.
One thing worth noting, is that BTC has never broken down significantly below the 200 EMA on the weekly time-frame. We are just below it now. So, there is a slight likelihood that we could hold the 200 EMA here, and move higher, thereby producing a floor on the 200 EMA. However, I think that is very unlikely, but certainly worth noting.
Based on this chart, I think there is a high likelihood that we will visit the $1163 level, before the end of 2019.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Been trading since Q3 2014; This is probably my first comment and 99.9% of the time I don’t even look at the opinions or TA conducted by other traders Strictly due to the volatility uncertainty and regardless of how accurate someone may be you cannot factor in OTC trading; Which accounts for probably more than 90% of any sudden bullish or bearish movement whenever we see parabolic gains or losses that were not intended it is usually a result of OTC trading..
Anyway I have a point to this I did not state that brief bio just to boast it was to give more clear insight as to how and why I don’t follow anyone’s TA but my own and why I am choosing to comment on this projection/analysis and post this comment.
For one you’re pretty damn good and again not to sound like a megalomaniacal douche but Pretty good coming from someone like me (whose always turned ROI every quarter regardless of market fluctuation and even during Q1-3 of this year where we saw nothing but bearish price action) I never once lost; is one hell of a compliment, since i have been involved in this game: whether it’s 1% or 100,000% there is never a moment at the end of each quarter on the fiscal calender, 4 days a year for 4 years now where I have crunched the numbers in my budget for the next quarter to see a red down -% on crypto returns while forex swing trading (with the exception of the first few quarters, like all new traders i took some losses and through trial and error corrected those mistakes this was circa Christmas of 2014-2015 but I digress) my point is: There is never been a time as uncertain and volatile in projecting price action since this quarter.. A number of factors are responsible for this including bakkt etf news (or lackthefeof) otc trading obviously and mainly the most important being For years now we’ve all been haunted by the most haunting question in philosophically determining the future of crypto: “when / will the bubble burst?” & not just the BTC bubble I’m referring to the market in its entirety.
Needless to say I think we got our answer this summer with the announcement of Bakkt and the release of Nex come Q2 ‘19 We are seeing essentially both halves of the globe each hemisphere Integrating, regulating and assimilating blockchain first then crypto as they most people live their lives obliviousy not realizing a global financial revolution is unfolding as we speak.
I guess my point here is;
1) Props to you man when we do TA it’s sort of like being a weatherman I always say... We use history as a barometer, in conjunction with Science education experience trial and error ETC. but at the end of the day; even if the weatherman says 99.9% chance of a blizzard snowstorm coming our way overnight we still wAke up that next morning to find it absolutely 100% sunny out with not a drop of snow
2) in terms of how you conduct your TA what indicators, follow fib #s ? bullish/bearish on ema 200? What’s short/long mean to u? Subjectively
UnknownUnicorn1445512
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Sorry for grammatical errors I am using Siri voice command while doing this on my phone
mattgetsbarreled
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@atarabichi, you are an inspiration dude.
VisionCodeX
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@atarabichi, I'd just like to note that Bakkt doesn't solve any of Bitcoin's inherent problems (I've outlined many of them).
Yes, we are in the midst of a global financial revolution, but to assume that Bitcoin (or any Alt-Coin in circulation) is somehow the clear winner is short-sighted in my view (we are in 1994 of the Dot.com bubble). I'm a research analyst by profession - I first said to short Bitcoin on 12/7/17 and continue to reiterate it today (i've outlined many reasons why). I work with institutional money, VC/PE firms, speak with industry leaders/influencers/pioneers, etc. Everyone is very positive on 'blockchain technology' and its multiple uses, but the jury is still out on Bitcoin which we now know is not an effective currency, medium of exchange, or stable store of value. Remember Bitcoin before Dec-17 and after are completely different. Once the U.S. government (Fed/Sec) and especially Wall Street got involved, everything changed and the price of Bitcoin hasn't recovered. Meanwhile, about 99% of Ideas on Trading View continue to say the bottom is in (all throughout 2018), now is a time to buy. I've been saying to stay away or short. My main point has been to wait for stability, which will only come from what the bulls hate the most -- government regulations. Until then, Bitcoin will continue to collapse. It doesn't matter what MSFT/SBUX or others do. It's basic economics (imo).
Best of luck to everyone.
Cheers!
Bulldragon
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@atarabichi,
A very long story
ReallyMe
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@vinzboylarga, TLDR story
Trendbeat
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@atarabichi,
Thanks for your blog...
Crypto_Recall
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@atarabichi, Thanks for your comments.
Poukitoun
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@atarabichi, Sorry but what was your point?
dcl150
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Love your posts
A little different take on similar chart:
- interested to know your thoughts
Anyway I have a point to this I did not state that brief bio just to boast it was to give more clear insight as to how and why I don’t follow anyone’s TA but my own and why I am choosing to comment on this projection/analysis and post this comment.
For one you’re pretty damn good and again not to sound like a megalomaniacal douche but Pretty good coming from someone like me (whose always turned ROI every quarter regardless of market fluctuation and even during Q1-3 of this year where we saw nothing but bearish price action) I never once lost; is one hell of a compliment, since i have been involved in this game: whether it’s 1% or 100,000% there is never a moment at the end of each quarter on the fiscal calender, 4 days a year for 4 years now where I have crunched the numbers in my budget for the next quarter to see a red down -% on crypto returns while forex swing trading (with the exception of the first few quarters, like all new traders i took some losses and through trial and error corrected those mistakes this was circa Christmas of 2014-2015 but I digress) my point is: There is never been a time as uncertain and volatile in projecting price action since this quarter.. A number of factors are responsible for this including bakkt etf news (or lackthefeof) otc trading obviously and mainly the most important being For years now we’ve all been haunted by the most haunting question in philosophically determining the future of crypto: “when / will the bubble burst?” & not just the BTC bubble I’m referring to the market in its entirety.
Needless to say I think we got our answer this summer with the announcement of Bakkt and the release of Nex come Q2 ‘19 We are seeing essentially both halves of the globe each hemisphere Integrating, regulating and assimilating blockchain first then crypto as they most people live their lives obliviousy not realizing a global financial revolution is unfolding as we speak.
I guess my point here is;
1) Props to you man when we do TA it’s sort of like being a weatherman I always say... We use history as a barometer, in conjunction with Science education experience trial and error ETC. but at the end of the day; even if the weatherman says 99.9% chance of a blizzard snowstorm coming our way overnight we still wAke up that next morning to find it absolutely 100% sunny out with not a drop of snow
2) in terms of how you conduct your TA what indicators, follow fib #s ? bullish/bearish on ema 200? What’s short/long mean to u? Subjectively