We had a breakdown of market structure ( the big triangle) which had lead us below the mean trend of bitcoin, i believe we are in despair since we are putting in new lows for the year.. Despair is necessary for us to conclude the bubble we had. I have no idea yet where the rally will take us but we should see a decent bounce at least and a substantial upwards movement.
So, we saw a low at subwave 3 which got bought heavily because it satisfied the Elliot rules and could be a potential a conclusion to 5 waves down, but its more likely that we take the ending diagonal ,since its a perfect fit for the current structure.
Therefore the 5th subwave should happen and lead us to 5,4k, we might get bought up hard higher than that from all the shorters closing or we might have a really deep slippage event which could take us briefly very much lower. so i don't recommend any leverage or stops until the rally is solid.
There is something like a 11% chance ending diagonal failure. this is something we cant mitigate against until it actually breaks the ending diagonal structure and we wont realise until its already happened because of all the kamikazi sellers/buyers /short closing we expect and cannot quantify. do not be suprised if we see an extended 5th wave down
Good luck people,
Disclaimer: This is for theoretical purposes and if you want to trade it its your decision and your profits/losses are entirely your own. don't blame anyone else take responsibility for your actions..
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I just wanted to take the time to re-assess the situation, I have redrawn the ending diagonal. I don't think we completed it because we are missing subwave 3 still. I thing alot of traders got carried away trying to claim a double bottom but so far it hasn't been enough.
It is possible we had a subwave failure and bottom is in but don't trade without confirmation. if we tank into the third subwave from here it will cause deep despair which is what we need for a meaningful reversal and any hope of new all time high
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sorry here is the chart' .
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buying now would be right under the log resistance , bad risk reward
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. we are on our last bearish ending diagonal idea now that will see us test 5.5k, so we test 5.5k, or we correct this rising wedge into an right shoulder ( inverse h+S), or the wedge gets turned into a channel with a big pump and diagonals are done
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tradingview.com/x/Ltn1jtc8/, we can correct to form a right inverse h+S, but if we cannot form the shoulder and break the neckline we can still fully form subwave 3
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these are both trend reversal patterns, , the inverse h+s would start the h+s spam "russian doll" scenario as the wave would then go to 8k and maybe correct to 7k then we are set up for much bigger highs
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. we are still in play guys
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. its alot clearewr on eth i think, and no problems with wave 1/2
Completely agree James. This could be a huge bull trap.
jamesasb
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@doctorkesh, yea, the subwaves 1 and 2 look really nice and balanced now, pretty organic from the last drops of bullish hope. If we are correct everyone will scream about whales and manipulation, but this is as organic as it gets