Technichally we have bear divergences in both daily macd and rsi. We have a broken trendline, a daily macd bearish crossover and a stochrsi daily bearish crossover.
Moreover we have a bullish exhuberance reaching an end after a crazy 820% increase in 12 months and a 2050% increase in price in 24 months.
The community inside problems (Bitcoin cash, Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Segwit x2), the potential of "fake" money being used to pump crypto's and the inability to reach new fools to poor more money into the market should lead to a price decrease over the next few weeks/months.
RSI bearish divergence StochRSI bearish crossover MACD allows a violent and long bear market
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Breaking meaningful support now. Closing daily below 3940 would be bearish and point down to the 3-3.3k area
Fundamentally, the bad "news" that could help our short. Bitkan, the largest chinese OTC trading platform is closing doors due to new regulations. Yunbi, once the biggest exchange by volume, is closing doors too in 3 months due to regulations. JPMorgan CEO says bitcoin is a scam Bitfury also drops out of NYA, F2Pool already did it. That's about 12.5% of the hashrate of bitcoin.
NYA falling apart would be a very bullish thing for bitcoin : ) I see 42xx or so then new highs coming, think this is just due to no new money coming in over the long weekend. Rally is getting overextended but I don't think its done yet. We shall see.
bagofXMR
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@btc_joe, I've been plainly wrong in the past. But i think that a contentious split between Bitcoin "core" and bitcoin "segwitx2" can't be bullish. Moreover i think the potential of fraudulent usdt being used to pump the market is real, and that should lead to panic as the info spreads around.
We shall see.
ltc-joe
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@bagofXMR, I thought you meant by falling apart they would throw in the towel and not go through with it. I definitely see support for a competing fork that is claiming to be bitcoin falling as a good thing, I suppose if they still go through with the fork that wouldn't be great but with little support it would be just another bcash or worse.
In terms of the tethers its tough to tell what is FUD and what is real. The whole thing does indeed seem suspicious but I would take anything that guy writes with a grain of salt as he has been FUD'ing and bearish since bitcoin was sub $1000. Just my take.
bagofXMR
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@btc_joe, probably a language problem, english is not my native language as you can clearly see :P
Even if we might not agree in somethings, i'm sure we both agree 1 bitcoin is stronger than 1 bitcoin and 2 spin-offs "stealing" hashrate and market share. And a weaker bitcoins means potential price downside.
I agree that guy has been fudding since 800,been following him all the way along. I dont blindly trust him, but i dont blindly discard all he says. There is certainly no proof for his theories, just circumstancial ones. Still i see something fishy going on with tether and bitfinex. Specially as bitfinex allegedly repayed 70M (or whatever) of debt but they still dont allow cashouts... that should raise eyebrows.
etiennez0r
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Will you reopen this short? and where is the refill target in that case?
bagofXMR
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@etiennez0r, ~4400 old support should be a nice spot for a short, working out a chart right now
etiennez0r
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@bagofXMR, god damn it, take your time, i will be up all night xD btw will you be long till that refill target?