I already discussed the inverse shoulder head shoulder pattern in my previous idea, although I had it wrong there with regard to the symmetry the market has chosen to develop. You see clearly on the chart there is shoulder symmetry (parallel yellow lines) here, but with other reference points than I originally had in mind.
If current level holds there is a tremendous upside potential. If current level breaks, bulls need to rely on the ma200 to do his/her thing. Undershoot is in that case very likely though, as is a further downward trajectory after a bounce somewhere (probably around that ma200 level). We have dropped out of a large pattern at that moment with theoretically lower levels than the ma200 on the cards.
I know this pattern has been brought to attention already by many members of this highly valued community. It's not a Nikolas Tesla style invention I bring here, I am fully aware of that. I try to keep on track by updating the state of affairs quite regularly. And it fits better doing that from a clean sheet than to keep refreshing a 5-6 days old thread.
Happy and safe trading everyone.
Crypto twitter is bipolar acting like they are all newbies. I don't get it, frankly. If this scares you, you should probably buy Gold.
First zoom in for a bounce trade
Zoom out 4h. Ma200 nearby but OUT of the 'megaphone' pattern.
I missed this opportunity, I expected one leg lower (and rsi divergence on 3 is not that easy to play, in hindsight it is but not live), that still could arrive and then be ready for bounce. If it goes up from here as a LT bull, that's fine by me.
ma50 is sweet spot
I am a big Heikin Ashi fan by the way.
I like the RSI setup. I would let longs run for now. Could be a much bigger bounce in play. ST target is met though, but it's too early to close imo.
Oh wait we will irritate some traders some more. One extra retest.
This trend line confluence (you see it often on every asset) I trade ALWAYS on the long side for minimum a bounce. Then I'll check along the road if maybe there is something more than just a bounce in play. In hindsight I had better took some profits at that first resistance zone, cause the synergy was not really there (and I could have seen it, I will clarify later). But hey... that kind of micro stuff is really really difficult to assess rightly all the time. You must be hard on yourself, constantly lookin' for extra deges but there is a limit, it's not meant to become overly perfectionist self torment. The market is quite a beast to tame, just try to ride it some times....
30226 is the horizontal low from a few days ago. If we touch yellow one more time we are right there. Ranges are so huge I personally am not inclined to let my long position ride till there with stops under that horizontal support. It looks near on the chart (and all taken in account, it is crypt after all, it is near) but for a ST trade it's too far away for me. Depends on your personal style how you approach that kinda questions.
I have stops under current low and will make 90 percent sure a new entry at that point (when there is some indication at 1-3 min level).
We are here.
For some reason I expect a vicious move up, I have that feeling, that's the reason I have not sold the previous bounces (in hindsight regrettable but okay, decisions have repercussions).
A more conservative approach (less time consuming as well than catching every trendline bounce, and on occasion being stopped out after which you re-enter again) is to wait at least for the ma20 on the 1h frame to flatten. Then it most of the times is some sort of up and down fight in a rather defined range, after which direction is chosen. Only when it's a V shape reversal that kind of approach leaves you empty handed or you at least miss a good piece of the sweets.
ma200 1min is first resistance and guess what, it has not been taken out yet. I am starting to get really annoyed by those lackluster bulls, so I set auto stop and call it a day for a few hours at least.
Maybe we go up in my absence. Get some fresh air and maybe do some running, although I am not even sure if we are allowed outside after midnight (Covid). Rules change every week is my impression. Safe trading!
ma50 daily and ma400 4h. Those are important levels. We are seeing higher prices than this the coming days but maybe there are better bargains than here.
It's not that we are hanging that far under the channel, it still very well could turn out to be undershoot, but hey look at the ranges. Its 31k to 28k in the blink of an eye. You won't let that run that far against you for a short term trade.
That's recipe for disaster and yet that is what so many crypto traders are doing exactly. Leveraged long in at 31k I say something and not worked with a stop loss strategy. We will see 31k highly likely one of those days but many of them will not be in position anymore. Margin call or panic sold.
Above boll. ma50 (red) and I look for a long re entry. That would be a good signal. First time the first resistance would be broken in hours.
Finally, after various failed attempts to gain something on the long side by playing the bounce (quite time consuming, with on multiple occasions stops triggered and hence re-entries needed), I had a valid ticket for a train heading north for more than one lousy station.
I was too eager and early in hindsight yesterday, and I should have been more diligent, patient and yeah altogether more 'wise'. There was no symmetry at all in play at those first bounces. Given the intensity of selling coming from an important consolidation zone, one could reasonably expect that the market would at minimum need some time and space to absorb that action.
One could even reasonably state that I was playing Mr. Dumb and Dumber by not being involved in shorting the market at any given time yesterday.
That's a (known but not fully addressed) issue of mine when I am tumble in 'countertrend bounce'-mode. My mental bandwidth risks to get too much affected by it, hence not leaving the required oversight to play the market on both sides.
In the case of yesterday, clear cut chances have emerged on both the long as the short side, and by far not far fetched ones. It's a retrospective assessment - not subject to all the noise and flaws that are inherent to live action -, but that makes it not less true.
It was a quite substantial bounce from the yesterday low, and it has in a rather swift and direct manner reached the first important horizontal support on the chart. You cannot reasonably ask more from a bounce-play.
Price has dropped from there. I don't rule out at all we go higher later today/night, but it's out of the primary scope of that bounce-play.
I will probably take a closer look at the market sooner than later. If I think I have some reference points to share going forward, I will post it here.
Daily. Not much to say. wave 5 coming (one leg down, let's say 28-26K) then up, or is the low already in? Still figuring it out. Maybe I won't figure it out. Elliott Wave is something I am quite skilled at but not a master.
You could have expected lower than we went, but maybe that's bullish. We didn't touch ellipse zone.
This is the drawing I follow for now.
Action is very choppy to say the least. Still in corrective mode when you look at it at various timeframes. We know BTC likes those horizontal lines from previous highs (rather than bottoms) so I marked them in green. In yellow I marked some kind of channel but it's obvious that could be subject to morphing. I have seen on the web some pennant drawings and I must say I like those. It still would mean a retrace before resuming the uptrend. It is key to at a regular interval go back to the drawing board to check and make amends if ( one deems it) necessary.
I expect a bounce here but it's not an easy call. Targets for that bounce I would not set too high.
very difficult consolidation action, under horizontal red I expect ST trouble for BTC, with the risk heading south towards the under boundaries of the channel. It's difficult to assess right now, I would not rule out at all that the latter will be the case. As a LT BTC holder I must admit I don't like it.
Left my old lines in this chart and then you get a picture that is not so rosy, frankly. Rather grimm...
We are clearly out of the megaphone pattern and did some sort of retest. I know BTc likes those horizontal supports I have marked in red, it's really typical for btc.
It's impossible to predict future price action at the moment imo, action is too choppy nothing of a trend ST. Some people see a bullish wedge in play at the moment, yeah you could see it but this picture tyells another tale. I keep this picture in mind for further reference points (in the case we are heading south). Each red line is MAJOR support.
Give me a green candle on the daily and I would be so much more confident going forward as a bull.
Anyway it's slightly positive for bulls going forward. Ethereum doing fine as well vs usd.
ma200 15 is super hard resistance ST.
Trading bitcoin? Of course it's possible, it's choppy but short term support and resistance do their work in a fashion that is certainly manageable, but easier in theory than in reality. Trading a clear trend is always easier and I personally advise to act accordingly and scale down on size.
Price is absorbing the downward action, looks like we are heading ST a level higher.
Ma50 4h is always hard when flat or downwards sloping. we did get that bounce as I expected earlier today but the target of that bounce is reached.
Now we are really in a zone with tons of resistance from important ma's and bollingerbands.
3500 zone still the KEY.
Wedge like figure.
Acceleration upwards to be expected when we break upper line. Target Bollinger 4h
I expect it to be broken (after a tiny pullback).
You can't fight the big boys with the current tiny market cap. So it will grow. It will grow tenfold and more. Today is an event in that narrative. A day for the history books, yeah I dare to say that, even ifr price cools down coming days (which I do not think will be the case).
Not many words needed. clear break, bollingerbands could prove resistance (I follow it up closer when that would be the case), but with current MOMO anything is possible to the upside. LONG
Wallstreetbets and Satoshibets will dominate the coming days with Musk sprinkling some oil on a red hot fire.
After some much needed sleep, trying to get some oversight in the market(s), most notably crypto which is my main interest at the moment and very likely going forward (let's say months maybe years to come).
Honestly I had not expected that far of a pullback. It still can be considered as a retest, but one of a quite extreme nature. There was a big option expiry yesterday which of course brings volatility. Volatility doesn't necessary mean a pullback after a surge can be expected. Probably there are edges to be find there which are out of my field. I just play my normal play with only recognizing volatility of some nature can be expected,
Anyway, we are where we are now. That's quite an interesting spot, since we are on the brink of pushing above the important yellow downwards sloping line. If that happens, the same bullish outlook remains.
Not too bad. For bulls.
Tiring 'action' in a small range. irritating stuff. I had expected more fireworks today (I am from western Europe, Belgium to be precise, late evening 11 pm here now). Feels like a wasted day. 24h Market, 24/7, difficult to find balance as a trader in crypto, we all know that probably.
I dont know if I am allowed to share the link, but with clear reference to source I think it should be okay.
When we go down (not my scenario number one but current price action is sloppy), I look at this picture for a big shot entry (ellipse zone).
(sorry I posted this update AGAIN as a comment first, it's really annoying in the interface but I am to blame of course)
One 'tiny' problem inj this scenario, we lose the ma50 on the daily. ' Quite huge so that means that going in big would require 1) good indication on short frames (even more important than it always is) and 2) the scope of the big trade is primarily that one of a mere bounce trade (so at least a big chunk needs to be sold quite rapidly (short term abc wave up) and with a moderate target, 31-32k looks legit at this moment.
In general it's lousy action and from a LT bull perspective I don't like it. It's more of a feeling, I will need more reference points really to gauge things more objectively.
Bollinger ma50 confluence could prove to be support (That type of confluence is my all time favorite trading tool no doubt, notably with regard to positioning a trade (entry and exit). I don't use the 2h frame that much but in this setup I think it is a valid support area.
More important however, 4h frame
ma50 (red) should hold otherwise I foresee trouble for bulls, quite serious trouble days to come.
Wedge , so up and retest channel? Maybe more than a retest?
Now checking in thoroughly. A smartphone is nice and well but you cannot trade on it. At least I can't.
The ma50 is still intact! It's a miracle (or not?)
I have a bullish bias, so the latter is not my favorite scenario. But you probably know already my bias is bullish on many occasions. ;-)
Ready for a moonshot this one, IOTA. I try to work it out later today (and will see if it's not already posted in abundancy.
You can never rule out another retest (and low) but oh boy a lot is coming together here, not only this timeframe. Massive confluence, this is a gem really for making a tenfold on your investment (I never advise to go all in, it is crypto of course)
Alt season is here now, I am sure. What about btc vs usd during altseason?
Ellipse interesting, 15 min zoom in
Game of short term support and resistance
This is just some brainstorming, some possibilities I try to chart, there are quite many trendline combinations possible. I like parallel channels they often bring something that remains hidden when you just connect highs and lows respectively on the upper and under side.
It's not some kind of personal game about guessing the exact combo the market chooses in advance or something like that. That would be kinda childish and even harmful.
I just seek some insight, some options to anticipate on a trade setup, yeah some spots to do something simple as that. Like on the 15 minutes chart posted above my 4h update, I probably will engage into a long trade when we arrive in that flattened ellipse where some lines converge. It wouldn't surprise me though if the market bounces higher. It's just where we are now I don't see good opportunities to position myself without the risk being dumb ass stopped out.
We have reached the target that I had expected yesterday, namely the upper bollingerband 4h frame.
The minor horizontal resistance I mentioned yesterday, played it's part. It proved harder than I had foreseen. It certainly was not a no show.
bollingerbands ma50 4h.
Jinx Fear. You should not underestimate that and you should respect that. Just like you need to respect the Power of the PAmp. You have also the Power of the Jinx you need to pay respect to.
I said it on Twitter last night, I said you guys on Twitter, "please guys do respect the power of the Jinx and the Jinx will leave you alone from then."
Maybe it's a little bit 'out there', 'whoe hoe', but you gotta believe in something. Everybody does...And I believe in the Power of the Jinx and the Pamp. And many other entities but that's for another update maybe.
I just needed to make a reference to the most funny two (no make it 4) minutes I had this year. It's still quite some time before the year ends, but they will need to come in very very strong to beat that. It's impossible to come even close imo. And the urge to bring something myself was simply too great to withstand. Nature calling....
Look I understand what Tradingview has in mind by banning any external link to the platform, I endorse it, but it's a pity now.
I am looking at the source in my next 'free' window and will try to guide you to the content (spoiler alert: it's on twitter). Unless - and that is what I hope - you already have seen it. LOL double LOL
That's the guy on twitter I was hinting @.
Respect the Pamp
A satire of Ivanontech his Youtube 'performance'. Brilliantly done, masterful job, he has synched it to the speech of Di Caprio in the Wolf of Wall Street. "Respect the pamp!"
Still not jinxing, myself, still waiting.
And it's no rocket science. ;-)
Under trendline channel for sweet spot ST long.
LT longs please let them run. let them run the whole 2021 and beyond.
Getting there, no knife catching please, wait for some consolidation 3min chart or pattern forming around that level. Zoom out zoom in.
Next trendline hit, hit it at market long
Consolidation I look at 3min level mainly for entry (lager frames for the (ellipse) spot zone)
Patience is rewarded
I think we have a low, stops, invalidation under yellow
If this current area does not hold, it's immediately ma50 4hs which is quite far away, easily 36000 we speak. Ranges stay enormous, it's 500 dollars in the blink of an eye. That's bitcoin it won't change. You need to work stops and re-entries or this market eats you when daytrading (or swingtrading, it counts there as well)
Quite a classic how it plays out, until now. Under line of the broadening falling wedge is often not reached in the latter stages/subwaves, hence you need to look at another (secondary) bottom line (on the chart marked in green) to locate the low.
Danger with this figure is the fact that - due to the broadening nature of the pattern - a next low will be set seriously under the current one. You can't let that run, it's a big mistake many people make when trading this figure. They tend to reset their stops during the process the price still trades in the wedge. Recipe for disaster.
Most of the times it happens when you have not located the low neat enough (cause the wedge boundaries are not always exactly met, hence you are tempted to buy in late) to put your position in the win and move stops at break even point or somewhere around that level.
I have been there myself tons of times in the beginning of my trading endeavors, I speak from serious experience. Main drivers of the disaster: 1) no valid stop strategy, 2) not enough skill to make decent short term entries (after having located the zone in which you possibly want to operate). The two are really connected cause it's so much easier to work stops once you are not underwater from the beginning. And as a novice trader that's exactly what happens most of the times, you go long and it won't take long (matter of seconds, minutes) you encounter problems with price trading under your entry.
Anyway, those meanderings applied to this specific topic: The pattern looks nice and cosy in the beginning, but when it goes against you it turns out to be very nasty.
It's a figure that is subject to morphing as well. It starts as a quite clean minor wedge like figure. When it starts to broaden quite extremely, an acceleration down under the under boundary is quite likely as a bonus (flush). It's indeed a flush for margin longs without stop strategy.
Either the flush will be reverted and the pattern will 'hold' or the wedge will in the subsequent price action turn out to be a tiny secondary pattern, almost invisible on longer frame charts. The under boundary of the wedge will in many of the latter cases act as resistance (it appears it could turn out to be a fake spike down, maximum confusion for longs and shorts).
So it's not that when you see a wedge unfolding you can be quite sure it goes up eventually (again a beginner mistake, sloppy careless trading cause "'it will go up anyway, if it's not here than it's somewhere in the neighborhood, chillax")
Wave symmetry of the wedge is perfectly at this point, so in my opinion the low should be here or else the pattern will turn out to be nasty and hard to trade on the long side (either side actually). So I am not re entering long until ma50 4h, once yellow is broken.
ST target was met (upper side wedge)
Now I think we could see a new attack and upwards break.
45 min frame to fit the picture
First support zone. Caution, I am doing nothing right now.
I still think the ma5 4h (red) could be a target, that's one leg lower. But it very could be that the low is already set.
ST Longs which are in the win? I would say - of course if it"s in line with your own trading rules -, let them at least partially (half of the position looks legit) run for longer than a very short ride towards first (minor) resistance. Aiming for the break maybe of the 41-42k high.
Quite hard though, whenever I accidentally pop up the Tradingview chat I get flooded with posts containing one single word, DOGE with the symbol of a rocket or moon as interpunction. It's really like all one brain cell people have finally found each other acting in concert.
No this time I did not participate cause I had expected it to correct further before a new Pamp should arise. Ah well, next time. It's a joker coin but he gets pumped up over and over again. High volume as welll, the highest volume on Binance in btc, highter than Ethereum. On Robin Hood Doge is listed as well, and I bet it is played massively over there too, probably even the main driver for the - let's be honest -- ridiculous behavior. But it is something to really acknowledge and take into account. It's one of the high voume coins/tokens in the space. Hence legit top 10???
In the mean time I am getting a little worried about btc. It's the Dancing procession of Echternach the last few hours. Two steps forward, one step back or even the other way around at times.
The same goes for my alt plays on which I have placed some extra 'bets' earlier today: Iota, Ada, Eos and Neo in particular.
XRP as well, no 'fan' of it, certainly not wearing a hat or shirt with "XRP forever" printed on, but it is a token that has the innate ability to pump. They keep hanging now, my selection, quite frustrating. Cause they show so much upwards potential even short term. Patience is key.
Bitcoin, ma50 15 and Bollinger now. Not going to add myself. IF not in position, it's a possibility.