I'm not a pessimist on Bitcoin, I really believe in the technology behind it and in the disruptive power that it brings to the economy and society. But, every market needs some time to rest and to make new money flow. I believe that an eternal run without corrections is not healthy for any active, stock or crypto...
TA: We are facing a Momentum Divergence on Bitcoin. This divergence is basically a disagreement between an indicator and price, and as we can see by the pink lines in the chart, every time in the past that we had a Momentum Divergence we saw a correction, and right now this signals are so evident on RSI and MACD indicators.
Looking back again, the last corrections went until the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibo areas, so if this happens again, we can expect a correction until the area between the regions 0.5 ($12.750) and 0.618 ($11.024) that probably will match with the 50 and 100 days moving averages.
Your analysis is sound and in normality you would probably be spot on.. all the new money believes BTC wll continue to go up for ever. all possibilities of a pull back are sabotaged by this new money as it is seen as an opportunity of a dip.. God help us all