Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that the bear flag did break to the downside, after making contact with the 20 EMA (in blue.) If you've been following my Litecoin posts, you know that I've been covering a repetitive pattern there. The same pattern exists in Bitcoin, and I've commented on that in the past. So, let's take a look at this incredible pattern, to assess the likely progression from here.
Starting from the bear flag, on the left center of the chart, you can see that we broke down from it, producing a sharp bottom (pink arrow.) This bottom was followed by a quick rally that extended above the 50 EMA (orange arc) which then produced a bear flag that had a small breakdown. After the small breakdown, there was a short consolidation phase, followed by a (spike) above the 20 EMA (in blue.) From there, BTC stalled, and then it rolled over in a sustained selloff that resulted in a $1200 loss.
Since then, the pattern has repeated itself PERFECTLY! We've had the same bear flag breakdown, that produced a sharp spike (pink arrow) then a rally above the 50 EMA (orange arc) followed by a bear flag that broke down slightly, into a consolidation that produced a spike back above the 20 EMA (in blue.)
If you look at the current action, we are right at the 20 EMA after the spike. In the original pattern, this is right where the major breakdown began. So, if this pattern is going to continue to repeat itself, perhaps we will see a similar decline. Now, here's where it gets even more fractal. I've copied the flagpole (dotted trendline) from the breakdown after the spike, and I've pasted it in front of the most recent action, since that is the move that would actually complete the pattern. Obviously, it doesn't have to be to the exact same magnitude, but what I found is that a similar breakdown will take us right near the blue rising trendline — A very important near term support level for BTC. IN FREAKIN CREDIBLE! I am absolutely blown away, by the repetitive nature of this pattern, and you should be too. This is showing us that if the pattern completes itself, we could potentially see a drop that takes us down to the rising blue trendline, which would put BTC near 4100.
With that said, this pattern has been very useful since I've been covering it, but repetitive patterns like this can end unexpectedly. So, that is something to keep in mind. However, until evidence of that emerges, we have to assume that the pattern will continue. Therefore, I'm expecting a continuation breakdown, to emerge in the near future, to complete this pattern. That breakdown could potentially take us to the critical rising blue trendline, around 4100 dollars.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir! ;)
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-Magic loves you-
-JD-
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Here is my Litecoin update, in which you can see the exact same pattern, but a little more clearly.
If you ask me, Poopie clearly posts some random BS but I doubt he trades it itself. bear flags to become bull flags, head and shouders everywhere. Short the bottom buy the top. This is poopie style. Just remember 11600 mark and Poopie telling everyone not to worry about huge rising wedge and volume dropping like a bomb. I was a huge resistance and risk to reward was towards bears like 2-3% stop loss for an infinite reward. Thank god I didn't listen to him and hedged a lot there. Now, at 6500, he is as extremely bearish as was bullish there with a high short-squeeze risk up to 8400-8600. Well that might be a signal. And we are in April folks, US tax season soon to be ended.
TheLurkingVariable
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@panconpalta, He's not a trader. I'd bet my left arm he doesn't trade a thing. His charts clearly scream, "I KNOW NOTHING ACTIONABLE" and with how he's always promoting his tv show--or is that d4rkmatter?--it's clear both MPC and d4rkstuff don't trade. They're not traders, they're businessmen, kinda the shock jocks, if you will, of tradingview.
CivilisedWolf
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I will just chill here with this massive wedge and macd bullish divergence -_-
TroyByrne
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@VincentBoudewijn, I got the same
TheKitchenTrader
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@VincentBoudewijn, Makes sense, nice work. Are you expecting it to continue the formation before it breaks or break out sooner?
mycoinmoon
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Poop Ive been with you till now. Why did we not break 6500 and then pop in a 5 minute candle stick for the rally. This is beyond TA in my opinion and unusual action with sentiment as it is. WE or at least I am nothing but a little guppy in a sea of sharks. I think the sharks are moving in a different direction. It is easy to call the breakdowns and pops in an obvious trend. But I would like to see when you call the reversal before it is so obvious to everyone that it is a reversal. That is where true TA and traders make the money. Not saying this is the reversal but when we reversed for that run off bottom you were still short for a very long time after. If I had followed you I probably would not have jumped in till 9K. I was in at 6.7K. I enjoy your TA and recognition of formations but if anyone out there is not looking at this themselves and solely relying on this analysis to trade I feel for them. Good luck out there...keep the good work coming.