We have continued mostly through the recovery of this phase of Bitcoin, and we are now entering the sideways consolidation and launchpad for the next bubble to go exponential. This is all moving along with my theory that, as Bitcoin grows, the "bubble pattern" everyone has subscribed to will be broken. As we grow and market liquidity and market cap grow, the market in general will become less volatile and these typical movements we see will take longer, and become less violent. We already have seen this from April to November, where it took almost two weeks versus two days to completely crash the market.
I also believe that the Silk Road was a unique event and as I said in the text, will not be repeated.
I'm also striving to make my charts cleaner and more easy to read, so I hope you guys enjoy this one!
Comments
ekoronin
⋅
I don't mean to necropost, I recently joined and I find fascinating all of these charts, discussions and sharing the forecasts - I'd like to thank the authors for that. But in the last months BTC did all exactly opposite, would be possible to revisit the thinking and reasoning behind the original chart? Interesting where we are going with BTC. We will all learn form our mistakes.
SebastianofMoon
⋅
Now we're almost halfway to the point where the real bubble could commence. It is interesting to see that we had yet another shaking off of weak hands with that whole 51% GHash.io thing and the selling of the silkroad coins. It could very well be that soon after the recovery to 650ish, we'll see the runup start slowly but gradually. That could be a likely scenario. It still matches your graph very closely.
Anima87
⋅
Yes, i agree mostly. Most people are stating the next bubble to be in July, so something has to happen soon - we just need to have to good news that can push us through the resistance at 613 USD that @4xForecaster has.. err... forecasted.
christopher.guida
⋅
When I mouse over the far right of the graph, the day part of the date becomes hidden... I want to see what your prediction is for what day the price will hit $1400!
lowstrife
⋅
That runup is just cloned from a previous bubble, that "scale" of the runup isn't supposed to be accurate. It's meant to tell you what is going to happen.
If we break $1200 and gold parity, we will go alot fucking further than $1400.
rkj66
⋅
Great analysis
SebastianofMoon
⋅
Excellent analysis lowstrife, thanks for sharing. The similarities between those bubbles are absolutely striking and amazing. Looking forward to the next rally :)
coinwatcher
⋅
July could be an interesting month, indeed.
pecivalec
⋅
very nice, I completely agree with this idea, current recovery process and this proposal for the next bubble. I even wanted to publish similar idea