An in depth analysis of Bitcoin shows that not only has its price increased with time, but its rate of increase has increased as well. The above chart demonstrates this analysis and comprises of two types of Bitcoin (BTC) rallies: Rally X and Rally Y. The former comprises of a period of 12 months and is an extended rally whereas the latter comprises of 6.5 months and is a condensed rally. Interestingly enough, Bitcoin (BTC) has made these rallies in an alternating sequence, each time with more vigor and zeal than before. The chart above shows a Rally X at the beginning of 2015. It reaches a high around October 2015 when its RSI level touches the yellow resistance line, recording a 368% price rally. It is pertinent to note here that every rally demonstrated above peaks when RSI touches the yellow resistance line. Similarly, the price reaches a bottom when RSI hits the lower yellow support line.
Bitcoin (BTC) records a 128% increase in the form of Rally Y in 6 months from January to July 2016. It is then followed again by a Rally X that records a 538% increase during a period of 12 months from July 2016 to July 2017. Another Rally Y follows after that with a 1022% price increase in duration of 6 months from July 2017 to January 2018. This is followed by another Rally X which has begun during January 2018 and is expected to complete by January 2019.
An interesting pattern to note here is that every Rally X and Rally Y has registered an increase with the passage of time. For instance, Rally X during 2017 registered a 170% increase compared to the Rally X in 2015. Similarly, Rally Y between 2017 and 2018 registered an 894% increase compared to Rally Y in 2016. By the same analogy, Rally X between January 2018 and January 2019 is expected to have a price increase of more than 170%. This puts the absolute minimum for Rally X at 708%, which translates into a minimum price of $47,490 for Bitcoin (BTC) by January 2019.
@tammy007, Nah, we don't need more dumb money. I'm glad this correction shook out the weak hands, people who panic sold thinking Bitcoin won't see 20k again. Good riddance! Of course, they'll come back again to buy at the top of the next cycle and will end up with the same fate.
Giovi6969
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What is your plan B if this scenario of 47.000$ does not happen?
Jefe
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@Giorgioversace, I wait for BTC to hit $2,000 and continue from there. I don't have a plan B. That's the worst case scenario. Which means if that were to happen it would be quick and I wouldn't be able to get out as fast as I'd like. Frankly, I don't mind holding at 2k for 1,2 years but I don't want to miss out on the action. I believing in putting all eggs in 1 basket and then watching that basket. I also agree with George Soros that it does not matter whether you are right or wrong but what matters is how much money you make when you are right and how much money you lose when you are wrong.
Jefe
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@Giorgioversace, If it ever does drop that low, I'll liquidate all my equities positions, options, forex, gold reserves and buy more.
Jefe
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@Giorgioversace, If it doesn't happen, I'm still considering liquidating other investments systemically to grow my crypto holdings.