Callmepope
Short

Whale/trader Behavior Analysis - Remember, whales are TA experts

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
tl; dr             - I expect BTC             finds bottom around 4k on this Saturday or Sunday

Here I give you a quick update of what is happening right now. Let's read 15-min chart this time.

You may have noticed that the huge selling volume is periodical. Everytime after whales drag price down, they will take a break for a few hours before starting the next big dump. Why?

Because whales are greedy. They don't want to sell low. After creating an illusion of a bullish market, they know that people will buy more if they are offered a discount. "Buy the dip" they say. Together with "HODL", "Lambo", and "MOON", these memes benefit whales a lot.

Whales created the first turning point after finding that further pump would no longer bring them more net profit (cost of next pump > profit from the selling after the pump). Whales knew that many people were expecting a correction after consecutive pumps and exponential growth. They made the first dump to attract people who "miss the train" and want to buy the dip to back to the game. As I said in my previous posts, whales are smart and there is no reason that they do not use TA. They know every support level well. And they will definitely take a look at what popular Tradingview authors are posting before taking their moves. Everytime they will dump and stop right before a support to let it bounces higher so they can sell higher. There is no point for them to sell through the support level because that will result in less profit. Whales' bots keep selling during the consolidation phase after a dump. This is why the bounces from supports are always much weaker than you expected in your TA. And this is why I always suggest you to be really really cautious when longing BTC             in a bearish market. It usually won't bounce high enough to reach your profit zone on your TA.

Check my previous post to get a big picture of this BTC             Pump & Dump.

Now we are in the Step 8. Whales are selling and normies start realizing the correction lasts longer than their expectation.

AND we are slowly sliding into Step 9, where most normies have run out of Fiat for the dips and whales have taken enough profit they want and start the REAL DUMP.

You know we are sliding into Step 9 when you find significantly more FUD news and FUD comments have been posted on various social media, such as on r/CryptoCurrency/. The speed of price dropping will be accelerated a lot in the following days.

"Where is the bottom?"

I expect BTC             finds the bottom on this Saturday or Sunday. I still stand by my old target 4k. It seems unrealistic at the moment. But I think whales are still keeping their big-boss FUD material unrevealed. We will witness a capitulation move once that is revealed.

Personally I will start buying in after BTC             break the 5k6 support. That well-known support level is the one must-to-break. I will start with small amounts (2%-3%) first and increase the amounts as the price falling lower.

At last, sorry for the late update and I do not have much time double checking my writing. Hope you can understand me well. The flu season really gets me and my families. The cold is pretty nasty this time. I wish you strong health for you and your relatives, and your assets!
Comment: By the way, there is no sign that our market is reversing. Number of transactions on BTC, ETH, and LTC are all dropping.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-ltc.html#6m
Comment: I expect bounce tonight and maybe tomorrow. BTC will try to form the inverse H&S but it will very likely run out of steam in the middle of it because of low volume. People will start dump hard if this last hope was disappear.

If so, we will see the bottom in Sunday or Monday.
Comment: A quick update. I just find whale volume pumping the price. I am assessing their intention. It's likely they are trying to fake another bullrun.
Hi friend... I had found your posts and im almost sure that the moviment from last night (12h) was from a BIG WHALLE. A lot of portals and Mass Media are starting FUD campaings all over Saturday. Can be a week of "attack" from mass media.
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I do not doubt that greedy and manipulative whales are behind the decline of BTC, nor do I deny the possibility of BTC falling somewhere around 4k. However, if price does reach that level, I don't think it will happen as quickly as you think.
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@rev214us, you are right. It will probably take another week to reach it. I will update.
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No Its not Fake bulls, they are real trust me.
California has just made a bill to legalize Blockchain and Crypto coins, plus other USA states doing the same, go read news.
Bank of China will get back in and legalize just mater time they just filled a Patent today for Blockchain.
And here 5 more reasons why 2018 will be great for longs:r https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/23/bitcoin-ethereum-other-cryptocurrency-five-positive-factors-for-2018.html
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Remember go long soon friends, Chinese New Year Holidays Ending this weekend ;) There is Always BIG BIG buying after Chinese New Year.
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so what did you find out ? lol
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Here is the probem with this theory. If whales broke the entire downtrend channel that btc has been in they can make the average investor think the market is recovering and buy in. Also at this point in time it wouldn’t take much (whale)volume to force btc through the upper resistance of the downtrend and just let others buy the price up to around 17k and sell before that resistance. After that they could dump the entire market OR instead they could force it into all time high breakout again which would bring a whole new wave of fomo investors who missed out the first time. But forcing the price down too low wouldn’f be smart for whales because it could shake out retail investors permanantly from the market which is where the whale I think the flaw in your whale theory lies.
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@adithp, I agree. They've got to know they need new blood in the market to make more money. This isn't the way to do it. Although I wouldn't mind picking up some $4k bitcoin.
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Pope, thank you, I wish you and your family speedy recoveries.
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