So, yesterday my less probable thesis materialized - (''I also have my stop in place for my short trade in case we turn around sooner than expected which is also a possibility. I suspect many people are expecting similar thing so this alone might turn around the price sooner....'') and the main thesis (short squeeze below 6k- white arrows) is for now on the sideline.
Although we've managed to get a very nice bounce on BTC yesterday, my feeling isn't very ecstatic.
People are talking about a great short squeeze, but I hardly classify roughly 100$ fake out a short squeeze.
A proper short squeeze would be 500-1000$ fake out, taking out the majority of stops under 6k level.
That would be a real capitulation of sellers.
What has happened yesterday was a stall of volume as range tightened + leveraged short position liquidation cascade (short margin position were at the peak yesterday). It didn't take much to push the price up to trigger the cascade + new buyer saw what is happening and hopped on the train which advanced the price even more.
For all these reasons I don't quite trust in the bull move YET. I will be looking for a long position from the green square (fibs+trendlien bounce) for at least another leg up in the next few days.
But like I said, I don't trust this move yet, and it certainly doesn't mean the bear is behind us. We need to establish a base and see higher highs, so sustained buy pressure for some time.
Although we've managed to get a very nice bounce on BTC yesterday, my feeling isn't very ecstatic.
People are talking about a great short squeeze, but I hardly classify roughly 100$ fake out a short squeeze.
A proper short squeeze would be 500-1000$ fake out, taking out the majority of stops under 6k level.
That would be a real capitulation of sellers.
What has happened yesterday was a stall of volume as range tightened + leveraged short position liquidation cascade (short margin position were at the peak yesterday). It didn't take much to push the price up to trigger the cascade + new buyer saw what is happening and hopped on the train which advanced the price even more.
For all these reasons I don't quite trust in the bull move YET. I will be looking for a long position from the green square (fibs+trendlien bounce) for at least another leg up in the next few days.
But like I said, I don't trust this move yet, and it certainly doesn't mean the bear is behind us. We need to establish a base and see higher highs, so sustained buy pressure for some time.