Bitcoin has not made any progress since my previous article, which simply means the market is OUT of play. Price structure continues to present the same two levels of interest: 30K and 38K. Until price decisively takes out one of these areas, the consolidation is likely to continue.
What to do? "Nothing" is a viable option. Having an opinion will not help, and can lead to getting stuck on the wrong side, especially if you are of the stubborn type. If you are confused or frantically searching for reasons, you are stuck in the typical herd mentality mindset, which is a part of human nature not well suited for financial markets.
Lesson to learn is this: let the MARKET choose, and then adjust expectations. If the market breaks 38K, that will prove that strength is likely to follow through. In that scenario we adjust by placing more weight on the following buy signal. If the 30K AREA (which includes 28.5) is cleared, then that proves weakness is more likely to follow through, and we adjust by stepping aside and waiting for new signs of price stability.
Shorting is not within the scope of our strategy, and we are not changing that any time soon, ESPECIALLY near a low of a consolidation that can develop into a broader higher low within the context of the bigger picture.
People ask me how to stay out of trouble in this environment. It is hard to have self control when price can look dramatic at times (especially on small time frames). The simple answer is: RULES. You must have them. They are there to filter out all of your impulses, hunches, and other random and irrelevant reactions to a variety of market information. Rules should be very simple, personal and EASY to follow. And before you can have the appropriate rules, you must be able to define what type of trades you want to take: day trades? swing trades? position trades?
This quiet time in the market is an opportunity to research strategies, test ideas, conduct long term analysis and paper trade. So when capital comes back to this space, you will be much better prepared, and separate from the new population of reactive members of the herd mentality.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
stop watching it and set alerts. The more you watch, the easier you become impatient.
works2020
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Love this! Thank you for sharing. I personally have a short position and respect your position regarding shorting. I share not because I want others to lose money or take in any of the emotional nonsense that pumpers and dumpers provide. What you wrote is exactly what I've learned, however prior to reading this lately I wake up asking myself, "why am I holding BTC, let the market decide then get back in." However I'm still holding a position. I needed to hear this which has forced me to go over my rules, ask myself...FYI, big challenge here...."am I being stubborn" and I've always fallen back into research in times like this, so why do I continue to hold BTC? BTC has me second guessing myself, my rules, has me fighting with the market, which I know is a losing battle. Maybe because cryptos are new I want to be right more than wrong, but this is not a trading strategy this really is ego. Whoa, look what you've done here...solid post. Appreciate you taking the time and sharing.
Feel like I'm rambling, point is, this post is solid, everyone needs advice like this especially in times like these. Hope to see this in Editors Pick, if they're listening - I vote "YES"
neteresy
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@works2020, you went deep man. We all got casinos in our hands. The house always wins.
works2020
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@neteresy, not true. Exactly opposite if you follow strict rules and don't get emotional. Go deeper man :-)
neteresy
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@works2020, yeah, I know, you are the casino. Don't let anyone break the bank haha. I am only using bots, good way of putting rules.
I have found out my that my strategy;
"just buy because you were doupting and didnt in 2010 and have been beating yourself up ever since""
And the rules; "up is smiling and down is crying."
Turned out to be suboptimal.
And I am definately a gambler and dont have the patience to be a trader. Would love to use a bot. But dont know where to start.
I was using CZ's exchange because i love the app and all the functionality. (Allthough even for a auto buy limit i am te impatient en still ended up buying before the dip). But I got out because of the withdraw issues.
Can you recommand info about using a bot and where and how?
humblelegend
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@thebombdiggity, Check out Bitsgap, it's a bot I've used for a few months and yielded good results. Do research on how such a bot works and what it is doing, this will help you understanding and thus using it.
neteresy
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@thebombdiggity, check thetradingparrot channel in youtube. The best platform is 3commas, but don't run robots without understanding them, unless you just copy from that guy on the channel who does the math and everything haha. You do have to be patient though, and don't expect getting rich overnight. But this guy gives you all the parameters and tells you when to launch and how much he puts in.