Get your BullBearings for Bitcoin here

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Get your BullBearings for Bitcoin here

At first we had a quick bull run to 9600 just as expected. The exhausted bulls had some tricks up their sleeves and still managed to form a small trading range on top and wasted another day just to touch 1.272 9900. At the top bulls used Horn Top and fake walls to try to convince the market that they would move even higher but ultimately failed as predicted.

Here come the bears to grab a nice 8% profit (if you shorted from top that is) at 61.8% correction. When opening a position you should accumulate: short at 9600, then short a bit more at 9900 etc - this averages your base price and cuts losses/gives more profit. But further decline is not guaranteed.

We will correct upwards to 9450 (61.8% pullback), then decide which way to go:
1) continue in a possible wave iii of an up trend with target 10450 (wave iii = 100% wave i)
2) move down to 8750 to decline further in ABC formation

If we bounce down from the neck line 9300 38.2% - a further move down and the end of up trend is likely.
The bulls tried hard to climb up 2 times already and failed. But they move a bit higher each time. Knowing their temper, it doesn't seem far fetched to assume that they will succeed for the 3rd time. Third time's a charm.

But there's still one problem with the up trend: wave (i) (circle) is a smaller degree wave than Wave 1 and should have a smaller height but does not - this does not align well with the definition of a trend. So, I'm not convinced just yet.

Good Luck! As always, you can check my status for the latest one-liner TA updates.

Please don't trade based on my analysis only. Do your own research. I'm not responsible for possible losses.