BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi friends. You can see that bitcoin is clearly following a Flat 3-3-5 correction after its bull run which ended on 02-20. The A wave took us down to the 9200 levels and we subsequently saw a B wave which almost reached the previous highs but terminated just below at 11723. Now we are tracking a C wave which may stop anywhere between 9500 and 8800.

Since this is clearly a flat correction , I anticipate a halt at the 0.382 retracement level of the bull run. I don't expect it to violate the bottom of wave A, but if it does, we'll eventually find support at the 0.5 retracement. If I am shorting here, I'll personally wait for a retrace towards the 11k levels before shorting, at least I'll have reduced risk. Good luck with the shorts!

Remember to do your own due research before investing.

Trade active: Our trade is still fully active, and the corrective waves are more than clearly defined. Some ask why I didn't label my waves in more detail, and I say I don't want to confuse the newbies! And also I'm a kinda lazy analyst. I believe we have enough detail on my chart to work with, so watch for the levels I gave you. Take some profit at 9500 and follow the rest with a trailing stop to 8800
Trade active: If you're not short yet, you can place a sell order when the either when the price bounces off the upper yellow trendline or when the lower trendline is broken. The choice is yours! If we break above the upper trendline, I'll update you guys on the possible scenarios

Comment: Perfect bounce from the top of the rising wedge/flag. If you bought at the top, place a stop just above the top trendline. Now we're heading down and we'll almost definitely see a breakdown this time round. Good luck traders!

Trade active: Broke down as expected! =D
Trade closed: target reached: Take profit 1 reached.

My 0.382 retracement level has been weakened as support, so brace up for possible drop to 8800

Take profit 2: 8875. Watch out for this level! Good Luck!

Comment: Just saw this news of Binance third party API getting hacked. This my take the correction further below than we expected. Now my 61.8 retracement level might also come into play. Keep an eye on that too! It's safer to short now than to go long. Be advised!
Trade active: This trade is still active until the market proves otherwise. We have a bear flag forming on the lower timeframes. Wait for a breakout! We keep shorting till the price shows signs of a reversal.


Trade active: Bitcoin breaking one bear flag after the other... $8800 seems pretty much unavoidable... I'll update once I can get a clear wave count indicating where exactly we are in the correction sequence. Stay tuned!


Trade active: Elliott wave count update
Comment: It's a bit clear that we're currently in wave 4 of the 5 wave correction. Wave 5 will either take us to 8800 or lower towards 8200. Before then, we should see a brief pullback towards 9600.

There is very nice support at the 8800 level since the MA 200 is converging with it and strengthening it as support. Nevertheless, it could still be broken and we head to our ultimate target area of 8500 to 8200. Good luck with the shorts!


Trade closed: target reached: Target 2 reached. What an amazing trade!

Now at this point, I'll advise my friends and followers to close out the remaining shorts since we may be heading right into a bear trap from here. Don't let greediness get the better of you since we're sitting on almost 20% profit.

I love you all.
Comment: We almost touched the 0.618 retracement level, but I'll reiterate what I said earlier: "Be very careful with shorts at this point, you might get caught up in an ugly bear trap". I'm now patiently waiting for signs of a trend reversal. I strongly suggest you guys do the same.

I'm still Commodore!
Comment: If my idea was useful to you, please hit that LIKE button =D
Comment: Rising wedge plus breakdown on the 5 minutes timeframe. Seems we'll hit the 0.618 retracement before the few remaining bears transfigure into bulls. Watch for that level! I'll consider going long from there if it's hit and we get a bounce.


Comment: Bitcoin has been unable to hold above 9400 and we're heading back down towards the 0.618 retrace. Now this is a very critical level to watch since losing it will mean we'll have more downside on the cards. I'll advise everyone to trade with caution at the current levels. I'll update you guys once I have enough evidence to support either the bulls or the bears.

what you mean by trade reversal ? from bearish to bullish ?
@mccf, Yeah
Commodore3 Commodore3
@Commodore3, The downtrend won't last forever :)
mccf Commodore3
@Commodore3, what are the signs of trend reversal ? can you please elaborate for educational purposes ?
@mccf, Personally, I'm waiting for a close above the 9400 level on the 4 hour chart as that's where the heaviest selloff stopped. Also, you can see that the selling volume has been decreasing gradually, confirming that the bears are getting exhausted
+1 Reply
zr0s Commodore3
@Commodore3, ...I love reversals! Getting much better at spotting the turning point. Still plagued with a few knife slices when being impatient waiting for confirmation. Thanks for your analysis, ...see similar picture and waiting for touch at .61. But may not happen. Or will rip right through like you mention. Shorts starting to exit, ... may be quite the run for cover. Can see some exchange blackouts, lol.
@zr0s, Exactly. This is the time when gains are lost through guesses. Better to step aside and wait for clear signals :)
Great! :)
+1 Reply